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08 Jul

Redbirds Flying High in July

Posted by: ramseymark

The Cards brought in solutions to try to plug some of the gaps created by the lack of production from the starters.  Those solutions, Khalil Greene’s resurrection and the acquisition of Mark DeRosa, have not panned out as both have found themselves on the DL.   However, the Cards are now 5-1 so far this month, after two months straight of sub-500 play (13-14 in May, 12-17 in June).  They have found themselves back in first place, and a lot of it has been the resurgence of some important bats in the lineup:  Ludwick and Rasmus. 

Ludwick has 7 hits and 6 RBIs in the 6 games in July, and he’s hitting .333 during that span.  Rasmus had a good June but didn’t have much power, only hitting 2 HRs in June.  He’s already had 4 jacks in July, to go with a .500 avg. 

Pujols had an unstoppable June, and his treatment around the league is rising to a Barry Bonds level, where managers have a tough time deciding every time around whether or not to walk El Hombre.   You could even see the wheels turning in Dusty Baker’s head as Pujols came up as the go-ahead run with the bases loaded and his team up by three.  He elected to pitch to him and Pujols nabbed his 10th career grand slam.   With this guy hitting in front of him, Ludwick could have an absolute monster of a summer.

03 Jul

Important Road Trip Begins Tonight

Posted by: ramseymark

10 Games until the All-Star Break rolls into town.  Most of the Cards won’t see the field until July 17th, after the ceremonies come through.  Molina, Pujols, La Russa look sure to see some action, and this Sunday Franklin may find his invitation in the mail as well.  However, the Redbirds can’t look forward to the ceremonies, or the time off, because the biggest games of the first half lurk right around the corner.

The Central has been a tough division through the first half, with 5 of the 6 teams within 3 games of the lead.  The Cardinals will play 10 games in 10 days against 3 of those 5 teams beginning tonight.  They will have 3 in Cincinatti, 3 in Milwaukee, and 4 in Chicago.   They have a losing record this season against the Brewers and Reds, but have doubled up the Cubs, making their record agains these teams 13-13. 

They should have Mark DeRosa back in the lineup, as his strained tendon is healing.  Hopefully DeRosa will be able to pull out of his slump, as he could be a real key in his return to Chicago.  Lohse will most likely come back for the evening game against the Cubs, the final game of the first half.  Lohse’s appearance will allow Wellemeyer only 1 more start to make his bid to stay in the rotation.  After last night he only needs to pitch reasonably well to get the nod. 

Matchups vs. Reds
Friday:
  Joel Piniero (6-9, 3.44) vs. Homer Bailey (0-1, 8.68)
Joel has pitched solidly, and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs since May 27th.  The bad thing is that the Cards seem to not be able to get any offense generated with Piniero on the mound.

Homer Bailey was stellar in his final four starts in AAA, but got beat up pretty bad in his 2009 debut.  The Redbirds are 2-0 against Bailey, and sent him away with a 14.73 ERA in those two starts.  This matchup clearly looks to favor the Cardinals.

Saturday: 
Brad Thompson (2-4, 4.69) vs. Micah Owings (5-8, 4.63)
Brad Thompson hasn’t had a quality start in his last three outings, and his last two starts the Cards lost with a combined score of 21-0.  However, he has two more starts to prove he can handle the rotation, so maybe we will see some better stuff.  But expect a lot of offense in this one.

Micah Owings has struggled, but came off a good start Sunday against the Indians.  The start just before was a meltdown, though, as Owings allowed a career high 6 runs.  Let’s hope the Cards replicate that start, as 6 is a very serious number around here.

Sunday:  Chris Carpenter (5-3, 2.42) vs. Bronson Arroyo (8-7, 5.69)
Carpenter struggled his last time out, but that was certainly unusual to see.  We can probably expect Carp to shine in this game, and if he can keep the score low the Cards have a great chance to win.

Arroyo has struggled, posting nearly a 7.00 ERA over the past month.  The Cardinals have good pop, so they are good candidates to extend Arroyo’s NL leading 20 Home Runs this year.  They just have to make sure they’re getting good at-bats and getting on base. 

So all three games in Cincinatti gives the Cardinals a good chance.  No dominant pitchers, and no southpaws, while the Cardinals have two of their three solid starters on the mound.  The Reds can score, though, so the Cardinals breaking out of their scoring drought (only 2.3 Runs/Game over their last 10) is going to be essential to win or sweep this holiday series.

01 Jul

DeRosa Shows Versatility, Remains Hitless

Posted by: ramseymark

DeRosa Cardinals BaseballIf there’s one thing the Cards’ infield has this year, it’s versatility.  Thurston, Brendan Ryan, and Barden (when he was up) can play 2B, SS, 3B.  DeRosa sticks with that trend, and though he was brought in as the 3B, he’s played every position at least 20 games except for catcher and center field.  However, I think we’ve seen in these last three games that he may not be that “spark” in the lineup that will transform the Cards from a good team to a playoff-bound team. 

In both the spots before and after Pujols, DeRosa has started going 1-9 with one walk.  During his versatile career, he has batted in all 9 spots in the order, although his cleanup start was only his 4th there during his career.   Derosa hits under the Mendoza line when he bats 3rd (.100) and 4th (.192).  His best spots are 6th, and when adjusted for a full season, his stats would project to be .291, 96 R, 85 RBI, 15 HR, and hitting second, he would be .269, 100 R, 86 RBI, 20 HR, pretty similar, his additional productivity being mostly due to the proximity of the better hitters in the lineup.  I think in St. Louis he belongs in one of these two spots.  Against lefties, he should be 2nd with Colby sitting.  Against righties I like him 6th, with Pujols, Ludwick, and Ankiel hitting ahead of him and Molina behind him.  Either way, this guy does NOT belong in the cleanup role.  He’s got a bit of pop, but he needs to be where he can accomplish the most but not trying to be over-utilized by putting him in the 4-5 spots.

27 Jun

Cards Trade for DeRosa

Posted by: mikewest

Many Cardinal fans got their wish tonight, as General Manager John Mozeliak pulled the trigger on a deal with the Cleveland Indians.

The Cardinals get third baseman Mark DeRosa in exchange for reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later.

DeRosa, a 6′1″ right-hander, brings his .270 batting average and 13 home runs over to a Cardinal lineup that is in desperate need of a boost.  Although a career .278 hitter, DeRosa has put up a much better average for the past three seasons.  His 21 homers last season was a career high, but he’s on pace for more this year.  Check out all of his career numbers here.

Listed as a third baseman, DeRosa is really very versatile, capable of playing all over the diamond.  That’s just the kind of player Tony La Russa loves to have on his club.

On the other side, the young Chris Perez was easy to like.  He had a very live arm, with his fastball usually in the mid to upper 90s. Many had him pegged as the Cardinal closer of the future.

We won’t know who the player to be named later is until, well, later.  But I can’t imagine it being one of the team’s best prospects.  In the PTBNL deals the Cards have made in recent memory, none were guys that we wish we had back now.

Overall, I like the deal.  You’ve got to give something to get something, and that’s exactly what Mo did here.  The Cards take on a bit more payroll, but the roster left plenty of room for that kind of flexibility.

I’m anxious to see DeRosa wearing the Birds on the Bat, and can’t wait to see his reception at Busch.

27 Jun

Update: Cards Intensify Pursuit of Holliday

Posted by: ramseymark

The St. Louis Post Dispatch reported today that the Cards are very interested in Holliday.  John Mozeliak must have been reading this blog, because on yesterday’s entry I made a pitch for Holliday to be the player that the Redbirds land.  I see a lot of skepticism around Redbird Nation, toting this as the next Mark Mulder.  I disagree.  If you haven’t, read over my post yesterday at Holliday’s situational stats this year.  It is better and will be better than any option that we have now.   If we can lock in a few extra years on his contract, this would be a great move for this organization.

The Cardinals are reportedly offering Ludwick, one of the three young RPs (McClellan, Motte, or Perez), and an unnamed prospect.  Let me know what you think!

26 Jun

Are the Redbirds Good Enough to Win the Central?

Posted by: ramseymark

The DL has given us back our players. Carpenter has given us Cy Young stuff. Nearly midway through the season Pujols has put himself on a pace to hit 57 HRs, 153 RBIs, and 20 SBs. And they’ve taken back first place and are 2nd in the NL. It’s a team with more excitement around it than the ‘06 World Series team, but how good are these Redbirds?

After going a MLB-leading 16-7 in April, The Redbirds have gone 13-14 in May and 11-13 thus far in June. With all six teams in the NL Central being within 6 games, it’s the biggest and the tightest division. As we look at Baseball Prospectus’ preseason breakdown, we see some very predictions that may point toward Redbird Struggles down the stretch.

Baseball Prospectus has projected the Cardinals to win the division, and unlike our commentators at ESPN and the likes, these projections are based solely on stats. If you’re unfamiliar with Sabermetrics, they are historically quite accurate. As we will see, the Cardinals are right on track for their projected record of 88-74 (87.5-74.4). Their other stats are also right on pace:

Batting Avg: .257 (projected .259)

OBP: .326 (projected .332)

SLUG: .416 (projected .427)

Sounds great, right? The only problem is that they have a team in this division that is definitely underperforming to a larger extent…and it ain’t the Brewers:

Cubs Stats (projection)

AVG: .247 (.269)

OBP: .321 (.343)

SLUG: .400 (.430)

And they are on pace to be 12 games back of their projected 2009 Record.

They are also on pace to get 223 fewer runs than expected.

Interestingly the Cardinals, although on pace for the same record and basic batting stats, are on pace fo 134 fewer runs than projected. Then how are they still on pace for that nice record? Their pitching is way overperforming, on pace to allow 147 fewer runs than their statistics suggest they would. Although this sounds like good news, the fact is that our pitching staff will be hard-pressed to keep their ERA around 3.90 (4th in NL, 5th in Majors). The staff is full of contact pitchers, as they’re 25th in Ks and have the 2nd fewest BBs in the majors.

So the key will not be to rely on this pitching staff down the stretch, because history has a tendency to repeat itself. The Cardinals will have to do two obvious things: Get on base before Pujols, get protection behind Pujols.

To get on base, the Cardinals have a great formula. The first time around the lineup we have Skip, a .300 hitter, leading off and Rasmus, LaRussa’s prototypical 2-Hole (Someone with pop, and has only grounded into one double play this season, and someone who can move quickly around the bags). The subsequent times around the lineup Pujols gets the cleanup spot, as the #9 hitter acts as the leadoff batter for the rest of the game. This has been held by Brendan Ryan, whose .308 is 2nd on the team. Plus, he’s a good fundamental player that can move pitchers into scoring position for Skip.

Protection behind Pujols is much more critical. Pujols reaches base a gawdy 45% of the time. Out of the 115 times he’s been on base without a HR, he’s crossed the plate 31 times (26.9%). To compare, the 3-Hole on the worst team in the league, Ryan Zimmerman, has reached base 108 times and scored 36 times (33%). Hanley Ramirez scores 41.8% of the time. To get this number up to this degree, the obvious answers are your 4-5 guys. That’s where it gets sticky. Ludwick, Ankiel, Duncan, Molina all come to mind, but the first three haven’t been able to drive Pujols in consistently, and Molina simply doesn’t have enough power.

Matt Holliday just so happens to be available. Even though he hasn’t had a great year, with runners on he’s hitting .318/.444/.555, which is leagues better than what we’ve mustered up so far this season. It’s even better than Ludwick during his stellar 2008, when he was .302/.377/.554.

If no moves are made, this will be a tough second half as the Redbirds seem to be playing where they are projected as the Cubs will not continue to perform at the dismal level that they currently do.

25 Jun

Wellemeyer vs. Thompson: Thrive for Five

Posted by: ramseymark

The Cards seem to be falling into place. Khalil Greene comes back, defends his new position capably, and shows some power. Brendan Ryan has been playing great and has earned a majority of the playing time at shortstop. Franklin remains solid as the closer. But Todd Wellemeyer still struggles, and it raises the question: When Lohse returns, who is the #5 Starter? The two candidates, Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer, have been pretty aware that they are fighting for this rotation spot in their last couple starts. They’ve both been working with Dave Duncan, and appear to be approaching each start the same way: Warm up, pitch poorly, repeat.

Their last starts:
Wellemeyer 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 2.47 WHIP, 2 K
Thompson 5 IP, 5ER, 1.80 WHIP, 0 K

Their Careers:
Wellemeyer 4.62 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .490 Win Pct.
Thompson 4.26 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and .471 Win Pct.

The Incumbent:
Wellemeyer has had a particularly rough year. His fastball hasn’t been up to the mid-90s consistently, and his location and movement aren’t fooling anyone. He leads the National League with 107 hits and is 3rd in Earned Runs. His ERA is at 5.85, 1.23 runs higher career, and for every 9 innings this year, he’s allowed an average of 16 walks/hits. His Stuff number is 0, which is at the point where you’re encouraged to find a replacement. Cue up…

The Challenger:

Thompson started off as a very capable spot starter, but as the regularity of his starts increases, his performance has dropped off. His ERA stands at 4.72 and he’s allowing 11.9 walks/hits for every 9 innings. His ERA has increased every year since coming to the majors. His Stuff number is a stunning -12, and it’s much lower as a starter. He only has 2.4 K/9 this season to boot, which is the lowest number for a Cards pitcher this season.

So we can all see that the answer should be neither. However, looking down to Memphis, we see P.J. Walters and Mitchell Boggs as the possibilities, and their stats stack up about as unfavorably as our two main competitors.

In fairness, Wellemeyer’s BABIP has been .345, which is 80 points higher than the rest of the time with the Redbirds. Thompson’s, on the other hand, has been .264, which is about 25 points lower than his career. So the bad luck has all fallen on the shoulders of Wellemeyer, and statistically he has the better chance to rebound. Plus, he actually has the stuff to overpower and fool hitters, and showed that last year when his ERA was below 4 and his Stuff rating was +11. Thompson has been a contact hitter with no dominating pitches his whole career, and has stepped up favorably as a spot starter.

So there’s no right decision here. Even though stats show that Wellemeyer has the better chance to rebound, moving Wellemeyer to the bullpen to work on his velocity and command might be the best step to take.   If he knows he only has about 20-30 pitches instead of 80-100, he can throw harder, which should improve his strikeout rate and keep hitters off of the bags. Down the stretch, if Wellemeyer has found a better command, move him back to the rotation. But the fact of the matter is, he’s not ready to be in the rotation now, and Thompson can throw strikes and has a better likelihood of running into struggling offenses and getting them to get themselves out. Either way, it should be interested to see what LaRussa and company do when the decision comes across their desk.

Listening to: Todd Snider, Tales at Moondawg’s Tavern
11 Jun

Cards Use Bats in Florida

Posted by: mikewest

stlouiscardinalsphotodayrdvrln-elhil1Coming off one of the worst stretches of Cardinal baseball I’ve ever witnessed, the Redbirds came to my town in hopes of getting back on track against the Marlins.  I was in attendance for all three games of the series.

Game one was a nail biter that ended badly with a walk off homer from Jeremy Hermida off of Jason Motte in the ninth.  The Fish won 4-3.  The loss was the fifth straight for St. Louis.  When would it end?

One of the first things I noticed in game two was a kid in a Marlins jersey a few rows in front of me with a sign that read, “Rockies swept the Cardinals.  We Cantu.”  It was obviously a play on Florida infielder Jorge Cantu’s name, but I couldn’t help but think getting swept again could quite possibly be in the Cards.

Thirteen Cardinal runs later, and my worries were over.  A three run blast from rookie Colby Rasmus in the first got the scoring started.  The visiting team scored in six different innings, putting up “crooked numbers” in three frames.

I don’t know if fish have asses, but 13-4, come on.  Florida got theirs beat.  Here’s the box score.

Game three was a day game, and anybody who knows me knows there’s nothing I enjoy more than daytime drinking, especially when there’s a ball game to watch.  Believe me, I had my fill.  I needed it to cope with lame atmosphere that is Landshark Stadium. Seriously, I’ve seen more people at an American Legion game.

Todd Wellemeyer was on the hill for the Cards.  He didn’t have his best stuff, but managed to get through six innings, allowing five runs, including yielding a pair of homers to Ross Gload.

Albert Pujols hit his nineteenth home run in the sixth, but a three run eighth inning put the Cardinals back on top 6-5, and closer Ryan Franklin, and all of his chin hair, sealed the victory and the series for the good guys.  Here are the numbers.

That’s two games in a row now that the Cards have scored six runs or more.  You know what that means!

Seeing the offense come alive in this series was great.  Rick Ankiel alone went 8 for 13.  It would be nice if the team could start firing on all cylinders.  It seems like no one really wants to take the lead in the NL Central.  Surprisingly, the Cards are just a half game behind the division leading Brewers.

Next up, the Redbirds have an interleague series against the Indians in Cleveland.  Joel Pineiro will start game one of the three game set tomorrow night.  Predictions?  I say the Cards take two of three.

09 Jun

Fins and Feathers

Posted by: mikewest

Each year, I look forward to a few dates on the baseball schedule.  Topping everyone’s list is Opening Day, of course.  Most fans would say Cubs and Cards at Busch ranks right up there too.  Then the other important dates vary from fan to fan.  Since moving to South Florida back in February of 2006, the circled dates on my calender include Valentine’s Day (the day pitchers and catchers report to Jupiter for spring training), and the lone Cardinal visit to Dolphins Landshark Stadium for a series against the Marlins.

Well guess what today is!?  The Fish host the Redbirds in the first of three tonight.  And to make it even more exciting, it looks like we could see a pitchers duel, with Chris Carpenter facing Josh Johnson.

Of course I’ll be at all three games.  There should be quite a few Cardinal fans in the stands.  The seventeen people not wearing red will be Marlins fans.  They might be tough to spot at first, but you’ll be able to pick them out at the start of the fifth inning, when they all get up and leave.

Check back tomorrow for a recap of tonight’s game, along with some of my drunken pictures.  Go Cards!

21 May

Cards Sweep Cubs

Posted by: mikewest

We’re going to need more brooms.

First, the Brewers swept the Cardinals in a three game series with their win on Sunday in St. Louis.  Then the Cards did some sweeping of their own, taking all three games from the visiting Chicago Cubs.  And now, there’s a pile of broken glass somewhere under Big Mac Land at Busch, thanks to a first inning blast off the bat of Albert Pujols.  Somebody’s got to clean that up.

Pujols’ home run was measured at 418 feet, and shattered the “I” in the illuminated Big Mac Land sign on the upper deck in left field.

Pujols knows there’s no “i” in team, and at least for now, there isn’t one in Big Mac Land, but there are three in starting pitching.  Joel Pineiro, Chris Carpenter, and Adam Wainwright.  Okay, that’s dumb.

But seriously, it’s been the starters who’ve gotten the Redbirds back on track.  After Pineiro’s complete game shutout on Tuesday, Carpenter threw five scoreless innings in his first game off the disabled list to earn a win last night.  Tonight, it was Wainright’s turn to keep the streak going.

Waino pitched brilliantly. He gave up just one run on five hits in 8.2 innings, while striking out seven, against only one walk.  Ryan Franklin picked up the one out save, his eleventh of the season.

Colby Rasmus had a two out RBI in the third, and Brian Barden added a solo homer in the fourth.  3-1 was the final.  Here’s the complete box score.

The Cards improve to 24-17 overall, and 15-8 at home.  Keep your brooms out.  The Royals are coming to town.

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