The Phillies' offense from 2023 had a historically bad month like the 2024 Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals enter their weekend series against the New York Mets, fans have (rightfully) been at a loss for words as to how the Cardinals' offense can struggle as much as it has so far. While it may feel like something that supposed top offenses never do, there was in fact an eerily similar performance from one of the top 10 offenses in baseball in 2023.

I've heard Cardinals fans say they wish St. Louis had an offense like the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies have star bats throughout the lineup with names like Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto. Their supplemental bats like Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Alec Bohm, and Bryson Stott help do damage at any moment of the game.

That's how the Cardinals' offense was supposed to look this year. Stars like Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras were supposed to produce in the heart of their order and supported by a bunch of really good bats like Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, and Ivan Herrera. So far, the offense has been a bottom-five unit in baseball, which has caused fans to believe it has no shot of being in the same class as a lineup like the Phillies.

Wait!

Did you know the Phillies lineup went an entire month in 2023 struggling just as much as the Cardinals lineup has to begin the 2024 season?

Don't believe me? Let's look at the numbers.

The Phillies lineup in May of 2023 was just as bad as the Cardinals lineup has been to begin 2024

The Phillies played 26 games in the month of May in 2023, and the Cardinals have played 25 games thus far in the 2024 season. So with the sample sizes being so similar, let's look at how each offense performed over those stretches.

Cardinals Offensive Ranking April 2024:
84 wRC+ (27th)
.220 AVG (26th)
.302 OBP (25th)
.337 SLG (28th)
.639 OPS (27th)
16 HR (29th)
87 R (25th)

Phillies Offensive Ranking May 2023:

84 wRC+ (26th)
.234 AVG (23rd)
.308 OBP (25th)
.373 SLG (25th)
.681 OPS (25th)
23 HR (28th)
102 R (26th)

The Phillies and Cardinals both played like bottom five offensives over these month-long stretches and yet, the Phillies finished the 2023 season as the 10th-ranked offense in baseball based on wRC+. Many, myself included, thought the Cardinals would be a top-10 lineup in baseball this season, and yet, their early season struggles have caused some to write that off completely already.

When I saw these team numbers, I thought to myself "Well, the Phillies must have been missing some important pieces that month, right?". Well, just take a look at the ten Phillies hitters who had the most plate appearances for the club during that horrible month of May.

Bryce Harper was their one truly elite hitter that month who played in most of their games. Kody Clemens had an excellent month himself, but actually had the least amount of plate appearances out of the 10 players with just over 40.

Outside of Harper and Clemens, all of the other Phillies on this list were below-league-average hitters for the month of May. Castellanos, Realmuto, Schwarber, Bohm, and Stott were all somewhere between 14% and 19% worse than a league-average hitter for that prolonged stretch. Trea Turner and Brandon Marsh were 34% and 35% worse than the league average, respectively. These are staggeringly bad numbers from players we all know are good hitters, and yet, for an entire month, almost their entire offense went ice-cold.

Sound familiar?

Let's now do the same thing with the Cardinals' hitters so far this season.

The Cardinals have had one truly elite hitter in Willson Contreras. Masyn Winn has been 17% above league average, which was about what guys like Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker were for the Cardinals last year. Nolan Arenado has started to heat up a bit lately and has been 8% above league average, and Lars Nootbaar, in one of the smaller sample sizes, is slightly above league average as well.

Outside of those guys, things get rough rather quickly. Brendan Donovan and Ivan Herrera are both just a bit under league average at the plate thus far after hot starts to their season, but everyone else has been woefully bad. Nolan Gorman is 22% worse than a league-average hitter right now, and Paul Goldschmidt has been 32% worse. Jordan Walker, someone who myself and many others thought would take a major step forward this year, was just optioned to Memphis after being 56% worse than league average at the plate thus far. As for Victor Scott II, he has a bright future in this league, but I've never seen a player post a -19 wRC+ in as large of a sample size as he did.

You don't have to believe this Cardinals team will turn around their performance at the plate, but to say good offenses never struggle like this is just wrong. Is it rare? Yes. But the Phillies struggles for a whole month in 2023 are almost the exact same as the Cardinals this year, and there are other clubs in recent years who have been worse than 10% below league average as a team for a whole month, and then finished that season as a top 10 offense in baseball, including the following:

2023 Phillies
2023 Twins
2023 Rays
2022 Astros
2022 Yankees
2021 Yankees
2021 Athletics

I posted a story about this yesterday, but the Cardinals really have no choice but to wait things out and let the offense find itself again. The talent is there, and they've all produced so much better than they are right now before. I know for a fact that this club is not a bottom-five offense in baseball, and I still remain confident that they'll find a way to get into the top 10 offenses in baseball by season's end.

With the improved production from the rotation this year (going from awful to about league average), the bullpen performing like a top 10 unit in baseball, and huge improvements defensively as well, the Cardinals will be able to contend when their lineup gets back to what we know it can be. For now, it's frustrating to watch, but I have plenty of reason to believe this won't be the norm for St. Louis in 2024.