1 player from every playoff team that the Cardinals should target this off-season
The Cardinals will be keeping a close eye on the starting pitching market this winter, and some of the players they should target will be pitching for their current respective teams in the 2023 postseason.
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This postseason will not feature the Cardinals this time around after a maddening and disappointing 2023 season. But surely they will be keeping their eyes on the teams that did make the playoffs, to see who can help improve the Cardinals for 2024.
All twelve clubs that made the playoffs will have at least one pending free agent that'll attract a lot of teams in the winter and could use the playoffs to improve their stock going into the free agent market. You can expect the Cardinals to make a lot of changes to their team in the next 6 months to try to correct what all went wrong this season.
Pitching will be the top priority and the Cardinals have been linked to some pitchers that'll demand big money this off-season. Not every playoff team will have a starting pitcher available, but other coinciding moves involving players on the Cardinals' current roster, could help the Cardinals turn things around next year. Let's first take a look at who the Cardinals could look at that are currently on a team playing in the Wild Card Series.
Texas Rangers Pitcher Jordan Montgomery
The trade that sent Montgomery to Texas this summer has seemed to work out so far for both the Rangers and the Cardinals. Chris Stratton has been one of the Rangers' more reliable relievers down the stretch with a 3.41 ERA in 29 innings, Montgomery has only 2 losses in his 11 starts with Texas and a 2.79 ERA, while the Cardinals received John King who got high leverage outs for the Cards late in the season, and very intriguing prospects Tekoah Roby and Thomas Saggese.
During some very difficult stretches for the Cardinals this season, Montgomery was usually the guy the Cardinals could trust to give them length and quality innings, which is why the Cardinals got the return they got for him. When he was traded away it felt like a reunion this off-season would surely be possible, and the Cardinals should definitely attempt to bring him back.
Montgomery will turn 31 in December, his ERA has gone down in each of the last 5 seasons while his number of innings pitched has gone up as well, he is getting better and better. Having "Monty " back in St.Louis long term would give the Cardinals a reliable top-of-the-rotation arm for years to come.
Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Robert Stephenson
Stephenson is a pitcher that Cardinal fans are familiar with and a pitcher who has seemed to revive his career in Tampa. He has spent the majority of his 8-year career in the NL Central with the Reds and more recently the Pirates, who he started with this season before he was traded to the Rays.
In 42 appearances with the Rays, he had a resurgence, in 38+ plus innings, he only allowed 18 hits, 8 walks, and 60 strikeouts giving him a 14.1 K/9 rate with Tampa, and a 13.2 K/9 for the entire season, which is the 14th best among pitchers that faced at least 100 batters this season.
His 2.35 ERA with Tampa is by far the lowest he's ever had in a season, but like Montgomery, he will be going into his age 31 season next year, and with the uncertainties facing the Cardinals' middle relief core (Drew VerHagen hitting free agency and Andre Pallante and Giovanny Gallegos coming off rough seasons), the Cardinals would welcome a late-inning reliever that gets strikeouts at a high rate.
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Hyun Jin Ryu
The biggest name that'll hit the market from Toronto will be Matt Chapman, but Ryu is the only starter so far that's set for free agency with the Jays, he's not perfect but it could be a good fit.
Ryu is in the final season of a 4-year, $80 million deal that he signed with the Blue Jays in 2020, unfortunately for him and for Toronto he has only made 60 starts in those 4 years, including just 17 since 2022 due to injuries. So why would the Cardinals pursue Ryu? He was a finalist for the NL and AL Cy Young in 2019 and 2020 with the Dodgers and Blue Jays respectively, and he's shown to be a strike-throwing ground ball pitcher when healthy.
With Ryu's age (37) and recent injury history, he won't get anything close to 20 million a year like he did the last time he was a free agent. But the Cardinals, along with signing other free agent pitchers, could see Ryu as a 5th starter who they could get cheap on a one or two-year deal as a "bridge" until prospects like Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo, or Tink Hence are ready to come up to the big leagues.
Minnesota Twins pitcher Sonny Gray
This one should be a no-brainer. If you see what Gray has accomplished this season with Minnesota, I think the Cardinals would be unwise to not go after him this winter.
Gray has very quietly been one of the best starters in the league this season, he only has 8 wins due to a lack of run support, but a 2.79 ERA and 184 innings pitched is his best since 2015. His 2.77 FIP (Fielded Independent Pitching) is the lowest in baseball, which basically means he was the best at limiting what he could control (walks, hit by pitches, home runs, etc.) and he only allowed 8 home runs in 32 starts, his 0.4 HR/9 is easily the lowest in the league.
I wouldn't commit to Gray for too long, as he will turn 34 next month, but a 2-3 year deal would give the Cardinals an All-Star pitcher manning their rotation. Since his time with the Yankees ended, Gray has shown that he pitches better in a more calming environment where there's less "pressure" to pitch in. Also, his stuff would work well pitching in Busch Stadium, a ballpark that is difficult to hit home runs in, Gray could be a perfect fit.
Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Mark Melancon
Melancon has a mutual option for 2024 but he could elect for free agency in the winter. He is currently the only Arizona pitcher who could be a free agent, and I don't think the Cardinals will or should pursue Evan Longoria, Tommy Pham, or Lourdes Gurriel Jr., so we're left with Melancon.
The 38-year-old started this season on the IL with a shoulder injury, and after going on a rehab assignment in August, he was shut down last week before pitching a game in the big leagues this year.
If the Cardinals wanted to, they could invite Melancon to Spring Training on a minor league deal and see if he could earn his way onto the team. He was an All-Star closer just two seasons ago with the Padres, leading the NL with 39 saves, so he could bounce back in 2024 if healthy.
Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Andrew Chafin
It has not been a good year for Chafin in split time with the D-Backs and Brewers, with a 4.73 ERA with 4.9 BB/9 in over 50 innings, but he has been a dependable late-inning lefty through most of his career.
Chafin has a team option for 2024 but if he becomes a free agent the Cardinals could be interested like they were last off-season. Despite a rough season for Chafin this year, he has shown in his 10-year career that he can get right-handed and left-handed hitters out, and pitch in high-leverage situations.
With Zack Thompson looking like he'll compete for a starting spot next year, Chafin is a significant upgrade over somebody like Andrew Suarez to join John King in that bullpen as late-inning lefties Oli Marmol can call on.
Miami Marlins pitcher Matt Moore
Matt Moore was designated for assignment by Miami as he was not eligible for the postseason roster because he was claimed off waivers in mid-September, but he has had a great season.
A former top pitching prospect with the Rays, Moore has found a home in the bullpen at the back end of his career and he has seen success. In 46 combined appearances this season with the Angels, Guardians, and Marlins, he has a 2.77 ERA and a 10.5 K/9.
Similar to Chafin, Moore can be a high-leverage reliever to get right-handed and left-handed hitters out, Chafin has more experience but Moore has had a better season. If the Cardinals wanted to pursue a left-handed bullpen piece they have a couple of good options.
Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola
Now I have written in the past about Nola being a free-agent starter that the Cardinals should avoid, but out of all the options on the Phillies that are going to be free agents, he's undeniably the best option.
Nola definitely has had a solid career, he's a 200-innings-a-year kind of guy, he gets swings and misses, and has top-of-the-rotation stuff. But he has struggled this season with home runs, walks, and pitching away from Philadelphia which has contributed to an ERA over 4 over the last 3 seasons.
I also believe that Nola will stay with the Phillies barring something changes between now and the start of free agency. My personal opinion is that there are better options, but I wouldn't be totally against it if Nola was brought in by St. Louis this winter.
Houston Astros pitcher Ryne Stanek
Stanek has been one of the more reliable and durable arms in the past 3 seasons with the Astros. From 2021-2023, he averaged 64 innings a season and had a 2.90 ERA, including a 1.15 ERA in the Astros World Series-winning 2022 season.
Despite having an ERA over 4 this season, I would still expect him to have lots of suitors in free agency. The Cardinals could see him as someone to potentially replace Drew VerHagen in that middle/late relief role that can give you innings. Plus Stanek was born in St. Louis, maybe he would like to come back.
Baltimore Orioles pitcher Shintaro Fujinami
2023 was the first in the MLB for Fujinami but he has plenty of pitching experience in Japan. After a disappointing start to his MLB career with the A's, he was traded to the Orioles and he pitched much better coming out of the bullpen for Baltimore.
In 30 relief outings with the O's he had a 4.85 ERA and 32 K's in 29.2 innings pitched. His numbers aren't eye-popping but he did look like a better pitcher once he came to the Orioles. The Cardinals could use Fujinami as a middle reliever or they could look at him as a starter again where he started the season with Oakland.
There are other options from Baltimore, like Kyle Gibson, a veteran right-hander who will be 36 next season or a reunion with Jack Flaherty, but I do not expect that to happen.
Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Shelby Miller
The former top prospect of the Cardinals is back in the big leagues pitching out of the Dodger bullpen and he has had an outstanding season.
Miller made 63 starts with St. Louis from 2012-2014 going 26-18 with a 3.33 ERA, he was then traded to the Braves in the Jason Heyward trade. Injuries really slowed down Miller after his time with the Cardinals, including a strange injury where he had his finger hit the dirt of the pitcher's mound and he began to lose feeling in that finger. After that freak injury, from 2017-2022 he only pitched in 101.2 innings in the big leagues with 5 different teams. but he has revamped himself with the Dodgers this season.
This season he has made 36 appearances, a career high and he has a 1.71 ERA, his lowest in a season since 2012. He has walked 19 hitters in 42 innings which is a bit high, but on the other hand, he has only allowed 19 hits which gives him a career-low 0.91 WHIP. I always like seeing ex-Cardinals eventually make their way back to St. Louis, and Miller could be a nice addition to the Cardinal pitching staff and not cost that much either.
Atlanta Braves pitcher Joe Jimenez
Jimenez has had a very good first season with Atlanta, as he posted a career-low 3.04 ERA and a career-high ERA+ of 147 in 2023. The Braves acquired Jimenez last off-season after 6 seasons in Detroit, and throughout his career he has been very durable, pitching in 50 games or more in every season since 2018 (2020 excluded).
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In the last two seasons Jimenez has only walked 27 batters to 150 strikeouts, the Cardinals could use another reliever who is a strike thrower while still getting swings and misses at a high rate. We know that the Cardinals will be trying to address the starting pitching this winter and rightly so, but the bullpen could be a place for improvement as well, and there are a lot of reliable middle/late inning pitchers that'll hit the free agent market.