5 Cardinals spring training stories that were overblown

When the season ends in late fall, there is a void left in all baseball fans' lives that can only be filled by hearing the sound of wood bats or balls hitting gloves that spring training brings. Every year, organizations and fans say the same thing: Spring training results don't matter.

But, every year, after longing for baseball to be played again, fans cannot help but watch every game, every at-bat, and every pitch under a microscope. Non-stories are made into headline news. New swings and pitching mechanics are critiqued on a daily basis. Players arrive in camp in "the best shape of their lives" and are "ready to prove" something or someone wrong. The St. Louis Cardinals and their fans are not immune to this cycle, but now that the regular season has begun, it's time to take a look back at some of those stories and see how they have related to the regular season.

5 stories that show Spring Training results truly do not matter

Sonny Gray's velocity

The story: Sonny Gray was the unquestioned number one pitcher on the Cardinals' pitching staff and the clear choice for their Opening Day starter well before it was announced he would take the ball on the first day of the year. Whether he is a true ace is up for debate, but in this current rotation, it is hard to see a better choice for the top spot. Last season was a good, not great, year for Gray, as he pitched to a mediocre 3.84 ERA but did tally 203 strikeouts in just over 160 innings. He gave up over a home run per game and did not average six innings in his 28 starts.

Coming into spring, Gray was working on a new routine that kept him out of Grapefruit League play for the first week or so, and when he finally made his debut, the results were concerning to say the least. In his first two appearances, Gray allowed five homers in 6.2 innings, and the balls that did not leave the ballpark were still hit hard. That start was nothing compared to his final tune-up, which saw Gray being removed and put back into the game five different times thanks to five walks and another homer allowed in his outing. A consistent story surrounding the 35-year-old was his "diminished velocity," which he attributed to his late start in spring but which could have also been thanks to a secret injection he received in his problematic forearm last season. It was reported that Gray was sitting around 91mph at best after consistently sitting in the 93mph range through his career.

The results: So far in 2025, Gray is 3-0 with a 3.13 ERA and 23 strikeouts in as many innings. He has only allowed three walks and given up 15 hits and is coming off a seven-inning shutout against the Houston Astros. Opponents are hitting .188 against the righty, and his fastball/sinker rating is currently near the top of the league in Run Value, while his sweeper generates whiffs over 32% of the time. If Gray can continue to command the strike zone as he has to start the year, his current 3.5% walk rate and 1.17 BB/9 would easily be the best of his career.

Remaining concern: The initial concern was relating to Gray's fastball velocity and his ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. In his first three starts of the year, he allowed four homers, including a back-breaking grand slam against the Angels that ruined his final line for the game. His average fastball velocity for the year is still under his career norm, clocking in at 91.7mph. However, in his most recent start, he ramped it up to 92.7mph, so he is hopefully gaining strength back from his late start in spring. While Gray's fastball has been performing at elite levels, his sweeper, while effective, is actually checking in as his worst pitch by Baseball Savant measures. Last season, his breaking ball rated near the top of the league and had a 44% whiff percentage. Now, though, his sweeper is rated as average despite the fact he is still getting a swing and miss nearly 33% of the time.

It is still early in the season, but Gray has shown that his spring performance may have had some outliers that he is looking to move past. Hopefully the forearm issue he dealt with at the end of last season does not pop back up, and the team's plan to move to a six-man rotation should theoretically keep him fresh for the season. While he likely will not see much of a jump in his overall fastball velocity, it will be worth following his ability to throw strikes and keep the ball in the ballpark.