Sonny Gray's secret could capsize the Cardinals in 2025

Spring training games shouldn't be looked upon as gospel when it comes to projections for players in the regular season, but St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Sonny Gray is a cause for concern. Gray has struggled through an abhorrent spring, allowing 20 earned runs in 14.1 innings. He also surrendered an astounding eight home runs in that span. More worrisome has been his drop in velocity, as his fastball this spring has been nearly 2 mph slower than it was last season.

Gray said earlier in spring that he was not concerned with his results and that he was working on placing pitches in his desired spots, but as March reaches its latter third, pitchers should be treating the last few preseason games as final tune-ups instead of using their appearances to tinker with new approaches and pitches, so Gray's continued scuffles are raising large red flags.

Gray's issues have just taken a harrowing turn, as according to MLB.com's John Denton, Gray said he had received a painkilling injection in his right forearm late in 2024, something that was documented at the time. What we did not know is that the injury prevented him from ramping up in the offseason at his normal time, which could be the culprit for his diminished velocity.

Gray claims that the injury is not a factor anymore, but for a 35-year-old pitcher, any arm problems should sound alarms throughout an organization, and it raises questions about Gray's true motives behind his desire to stay with the Cardinals during their "youth movement" in 2025.

Were health concerns the reason why Gray made the peculiar decision to remain with the Cardinals?

Gray was staunch in his comments during the offseason that St. Louis was where he wanted to pitch in the upcoming year, even after Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak spoke to Gray about whether the pitcher would be interested in being dealt to a contender.

At the Winter Warm-Ups, Gray sounded cautiously optimistic about the Cardinals' chances, saying, "I’m not 100% sold that we can’t win here. I know it may look different and sound different, and it may not be like what it looked like in the past as far as signing a bunch of veteran guys and kind of doing it that way. But I’ve also been on teams that have won that have done it a different way."

At the time, it was logical to take Gray at his word and assume that he truly enjoyed playing in St. Louis and believed the team had a shot to compete. But now, a tinfoil theory worth considering is that Gray knew that his arm problems were more significant than he let on and he would rather wind up on the injured list for a team that was less likely to win over a club that had championship aspirations.

Another thought is that Gray knew that a trade wouldn't pan out if the Cardinals had attempted one. A team acquiring him would perform a routine physical exam, and the revelation of a costly injury would likely put the kibosh on a potential deal.

If Gray has not fully recovered from his injury, his presence, or soon lack thereof, could be a harbinger of doom for the Cardinals. Expected to front the Cardinals rotation, Gray has been anything but steady in spring training. If his choice to stay with the Cardinals was a calculated decision to go down with an already unsteady ship instead of serving as a liability for a more stable franchise, it appears that the Cardinals have gotten duped big time.