Cardinals ace is being bitten by the gopher ball in spring training

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about how the St. Louis Cardinals will perform in 2025. Top of fans' minds are Jordan Walker's and Nolan Gorman's performances and Lars Nootbaar's health. What most fans weren't worried about was the lack of an anchor in the starting rotation. But Sonny Gray's performance in spring training thus far has been an early source of alarm for some Cardinals fans.

Sonny Gray has been a launching pad in his two spring training appearances.

Through 6.2 innings in spring training, Gray has pitched to an unsightly 9.45 ERA and given up a whopping five home runs on 10 hits. In his second appearance, he allowed eight batted balls that had exit velocities over 95 mph.

Following a year where Gray missed the first few weeks of the season after leaving a spring training start early with a hamstring injury, the Cardinals' top starter said he's focusing on health and preparation rather than results in the preseason. After one of the home runs he allowed in his first game, he even expressed satisfaction that he threw his fastball in the precise location that he wanted. This could be part of the explanation for the sudden surge in long balls and hard contact, but the poor performance will still cause some fans to shift uncomfortably in their seats.

Gray excelled in the pitcher-friendly confines of Busch Stadium in 2024, holding a 2.79 ERA and allowing five home runs. However, he was far shakier on the road, with a 5.20 ERA and 16 home runs allowed. That gap could widen even further if Gray's propensity for surrendering the round-tripper continues into the regular season.

Gray expressed a desire to remain in St. Louis for the 2025 season even amid the Cardinals' public acknowledgment of a "retool." Reactions among the fanbase ran the gamut, from pleasure that Gray was staying with the team to solidify the rotation, to disappointment that the Cardinals wouldn't attempt to move him for some young building blocks. If Gray can't turn things around when the games start mattering, the originally optimistic fans could grow frustrated with Gray for not seeking a trade, and with the Cardinals for not trading him when his value was higher.

Baseball Savant indicates that Gray's velocity and spin rates have not meaningfully changed from 2024 to 2025, so it's worth holding on to hope that Gray will right the ship come April. The Cardinals can't afford to have Gray fall apart if they want any shot at eking out a Wild Card spot or, more likely, dealing him at the trade deadline.