Sonny Gray's multitude of maladies reflect those of a former Cardinals ace

Sonny Gray's spring training has not gone the way that he or the St. Louis Cardinals expected, as the team's No. 1 starter holds a 12.56 ERA in four spring starts and has allowed eight home runs in just 14.1 innings. His explanations for his ineffectiveness and the revelations that are emerging in camp are eerily reminiscent of the catastrophic conclusion to the career of a future Cardinals Hall of Famer.

The issues surrounding Sonny Gray are bringing back memories of Adam Wainwright's final season.

Adam Wainwright's 2023 season was not one for the history books. The former ace became nearly impossible to watch as the season wore on, and his stats ultimately culminated in a 7.40 ERA and 20 home runs allowed in 101 innings.

Wainwright finished 2022 with a thud, holding a 7.22 ERA in September. He first attributed the problems to "dead arm," but following the season, Wainwright revealed that his extension had been shortened by nearly a foot after a comebacker hit him in the knee on Aug. 28, which contributed to his poor performance afterward.

Wainwright only pitched five innings in spring training of 2023, allowing four runs and eight hits. On March 23, manager Oli Marmol confirmed that Wainwright had suffered a groin strain and would begin 2023 on the injured list.

After a start on July 4 that saw Wainwright allow seven runs in 3.1 innings, the embattled hurler returned to the injured list with shoulder discomfort and received cortisone injections in his shoulder and back. Wainwright cited the shoulder problems for the lack of life on his signature curveball.

After a rare bright spot near the end of the season, where Wainwright earned his 200th win, the Cardinals placed him on the injured list once more as his shoulder issues cropped up again. His 200th win would be the final appearance in his career.

Finally, following the season, Wainwright revealed that he had been pitching with a partial labrum tear for most of the year and likely fully tore it on a Sept. 12 start against the Baltimore Orioles.

Wainwright's litany of injuries and explanations in 2023 provided fans with an unwelcome roller coaster ride, and Gray may be fastening fans' seat belts for another go-around.

After Gray's first few substandard spring starts, the pitcher said he was working on some pitches and locations and that he wasn't concerned about his performance. However, Gray later revealed that the painkilling injection he received late in 2024 delayed his offseason program in 2025. Gray mentioned that the late ramp-up may have been a reason for his lowered velocity this spring.

Another potential reason for Gray's problems in spring has now emerged: According to Derrick Goold of STLToday, Gray had been suffering from a flu-like illness that took away much of his strength.

Obviously, we've seen this story before, and it rarely ends well. Gray's explanations may placate fans for a while, but it looks to be a matter of time before he is headed to the injured list. At 35 years old, Gray is likely nearing the end of the line, and as Wainwright displayed, older pitchers' stuff often disappears quickly. For Gray, a pitcher reliant on strikeouts, it may be more difficult for him to adjust to a diminished arsenal than it was for Wainwright, whose game never centered on K's.

The Cardinals kept using Wainwright because of his effort to reach 200 victories and the Cardinals being out of playoff contention. However, Gray does not have any major milestones to reach in 2025, so in the event that he is sidelined, the Cardinals should be in no rush to return him to action, especially given that the Cardinals are not expected to make a serious postseason push. If the worst-case scenario occurs and Gray needs Tommy John surgery or a similar major operation, it's best to get it over with earlier to prevent him from exacerbating the injury and struggling through the season. It would also raise the likelihood of him pitching at some point in 2026.

The Cardinals' six-man rotation could take some pressure off of Gray and will allow him an extra day of rest between starts, but that might not matter if he is nursing a significant injury. With Gray under contract for 2026 and the Cardinals holding a club option for 2027, the Cardinals need to exercise caution. The last thing they need is a repeat of 2023 where they keep trotting a starter out who clearly does not possess the stuff to retire major league hitters.