St. Louis Cardinals: Carpenter is our cleanup, not our leadoff hitter

The St. Louis Cardinals have a couple guys in their lineup, Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter, who have a great deal of experience batting leadoff in the major leagues.

My colleague Christian advocates for Matt Carpenter as the leadoff hitter for the 2018 edition of the St. Louis Cardinals. I say, not so fast, my friend. I like Dexter Fowler in the one hole very much, and Matt further down in the order.

In fact, I’ll go a step further than even the St. Louis Cardinals, whose manager Mike Matheny has posited on at least one occasion a lineup touting Carpenter batting third. Even that doesn’t get the team where it needs to go, in my opinion.

Where should Carp bat? Why, cleanup, of course.

But first, let’s get back to Fowler. There are two reasons I think Dex needs to lead off, and they are pretty simple. One, he’s got speed that Carp does not. And two, he’s not Carp. More on that in a minute.

The speed is pretty important for a Cards team that has not only lacked it, but has eschewed taking advantage of the speed it’s had. This is not a franchise known for their stolen bags or first-to-third speed and prowess.

But the tide may be changing. Between Fowler, Tommy Pham and Kolten Wong, the pieces are at least present (and that included the now-departed Randal Grichuk last year, too). And the team made a commitment to better overall fundamental play by bringing both Jose Oquendo and Willie McGee back to encourage defense and baserunning improvement.

Fowler has almost as good a career OBP as Carpenter; they are both highly gifted in getting on base. Dex has a much better ability to push the envelope on the speed front, whether by base thievery or in getting around two or more bases on strokes from those below him in the lineup.

So that gets us to the second point; Fowler is not Carp. That sure sounds stupid, but I shall explain.

Carpenter has a major advantage over Fowler in the slugging department. In fact , career-wise Carp’s advantage over Dexter on SLG is three times what it is on OBP. The on-base skills differential is practically insignificant statistically; but one cannot dismiss how much more pop Carp has had in his career.

That’s even more striking when you consider Fowler spent six years playing at Coors Field and only once did his SLG exceed .432. Carp has been below that mark exactly once, and twice has he exceeded .500 in SLG.

It is definitely true, to be honest, that Fowler’s slug has improved the last two years. But one of those years was in Wrigley, and I prefer to look at a body of work rather than cherry pick the high-level years. From the broader-based perspective, Carp appears to have the edge on extra-base power.

So once that’s established, it seems to me strongly arguable that he ought be moved down in the lineup. Some rely on the stats that Carp has had in the one-hole that suggest he’s “more comfortable” there. As the player himself rejects that characterization, so do I.

So Fowler it is for me in leadoff and Carp further down. But where?

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Well, I controversially said cleanup, and I believe this is the right solution. Let me explain.

The Cards, like many teams, have gone to the practice of installing perhaps their most complete hitting talent in the two-hole. That is where Pham appears to be penciled in.

So now we’re down to what happens with newly acquired, super-talented Marcell Ozuna. And I choose to have him up as much as possible, especially early in games, and coming right on the heels of Fowler and Pham.

He is the one capable of the biggest knocks the most often, so he’s my vote to get involved early and often.

But after that, there’s a perfect opportunity to slide Carp in between right-handed power hitters. If Ozuna clears the bags with his audacious power, then the opportunity to restart the rally by getting more people on base begins anew. Sliding Carpenter between Ozuna and, say, the power-hitting Jedd Gyorko, he of 50 dingers in about his last 900 at bats, seems like a way to jump start the second half of the lineup.

After that, how the lineup goes is anyone’s guess. Because I want the guys with the most time on base next, I’d go Wong, and also because he’s another lefty to break the righty jam. But I’m guessing that’s not the most popular choice; others would probably go with Paul DeJong, and I understand that choice.

That’s beyond the purview of this article, though. I’ll stop here with my top five — Fowler, Pham, Ozuna, Carpenter, Gyorko — and let others hash the bottom of the lineup out.

Next: Most important starter?

Let me know what you think in the comments below.

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