St. Louis Cardinals: Which Starting Pitcher Is Most Important?

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ST. LOUIS, MO – JUNE 10: Starter Carlos Martinez /

The St. Louis Cardinals are hoping their pitching development game is stronger than their rival’s big money rotation. Whose individual success will translate to team success?

Yu who? In case you haven’t heard, the St. Louis Cardinals have regressed in the NL-Central standings the last few years, and lately they’ve had to swallow the unsavory reality of looking up at the rival Chicago Cubs.

And while Cards fans salivated at the possibility of adding Giancarlo Stanton this past December, they happily “settled” for the addition of Marcell Ozuna, a welcome first bite in what promised to be a Winter feast of roster improvements.

Surely the front office — after repeated overtures of investing their embarrassment of “dry powder” riches — was finally going to make good on their stated desire to turn prospect quantity and financial strength into a group of 25 that would reassert the St. Louis Cardinals as the class of the division. Surely they would show some urgency to close the gap between themselves and the Cubs, right?

Then the frost set in…

The Winter feast became the thinning of the herd in exchange for replacing prospect depth and adding a needed, if a tad uninspiring, bullpen piece in Dominic Leone. A bizarrely cold hot stove had frozen not just the Cardinals front office, but the entirety of Major League Baseball.

Fans hoped that President of Baseball Ops John Mozeliak and GM Michael Girsch were just waiting in the weeds as the prices lowered. They were just being smart.

But when the ice thawed and St. Louis Cardinal equipment trucks began their drive to Jupiter, Florida, fans wiped off their own foggy windshields to see that the Milwaukee Brewers had made their own bid for “Best Outfield in the Central,” and those pesky Cubbies had added the top starting pitcher from this crop of free agents: Yu Darvish. Had the gap somehow widened? What exactly is the plan here?

Barring an unexpected, potentially painful trade for Chris Archer, a market collapse for Jake Arrieta, or an unlikely return of Lance Lynn, it seems like the one advantage the Cardinals might have held over the Cubs has evaporated. Mozeliak and Girsch are going “all-in” with the starting pitchers they have, and boy does that seem risky!

So, what do the guys who make the big bucks see that fans, analysts, and writers across the country just aren’t seeing about this pack of Cardinal starting pitchers? What are they banking on “going right” in order to prove that this group of question marks can turn into an emphatic exclamation point?

And of those question marks, whose success is the most vital to the success of the 2018 Cardinals? Let’s take a look…

Will Carlos Martinez spell the solution to the St. Louis Cardinals’ success?

The incumbent “ace” of the St. Louis Cardinals rotation, Carlos Martinez has the least amount of questions regarding his ability to pitch quality innings. However, for all of his talent, the man called “Tsunami” still hasn’t made that great leap into Cy Young contender that fans and the front office have expected of him, and that teams with playoff aspirations desperately desire.

Some of this might be due to the fact that he’s still only 26, but he’s entering his fourth season as a fixture in the starting rotation.

Yet, despite having a reputation for inconsistency, Martinez’ overall season numbers have remained fairly steady over the last 3 years. His strikeout and walk rates are fairly steady, and though he gave up more long balls in 2017, that’s to be somewhat expected in a league that’s increasingly interested in “home runs, walks, or bust.”

Also, in my opinion, some of Carlos’ worst 2017 moments seemed to stem from an overcompensation for an emotional reputation.

Why Martinez is the most important starting pitcher

If Carlos can find that sweet spot between proving he can lower his heart rate and bearing down to the point of overthrowing, he has the potential to ascend to a performance level that few in the game can match. This means grabbing that “ace” title and running with it, continuing to trust in Yadier Molina, and becoming that stopper who makes every other starter’s job easier.

Every team wants that guy who you know is going to get you a win, and Carlos is closer to that than any other St. Louis Cardinal starter.

SAN DIEGO, CA – SEPTEMBER 5: Michael Wacha /

Will the real Michael Wacha spell the solution to the St. Louis Cardinals’ success?

After a meteoric start to his big league career with the St. Louis Cardinals, Michael Wacha’s performance dipped as the league learned to lay off his changeups and attack his 4-seamer.

The emergence of a stress fracture issue in 2014 exacerbated things, and ever since fans have wondered if Wacha would ever sniff the heights he reached in 2013, or if he could be relied upon to pitch the number of quality innings a starter’s workload requires.

The biggest alarm bells sounded in 2016, when shoulder inflammation returned and Wacha limped to a 5.09 ERA (although advanced statistics show he didn’t pitch as badly as that old school number might indicate).

However, Michael seemed to alleviate everyone’s concerns with a bounce-back 2017 that saw him making 30 starts, striking out batters at his best rate since that rookie campaign, and spinning an improved curveball.

Why Wacha is the most important starting pitcher

If Michael can show that his shoulder injury woes are behind him, that his curveball is less of a “get-me-over” pitch and more of an “out” pitch, and that he — like Martinez — can take the ball every 5th day with a more profound confidence than ever before, Wacha could be the other half of that 1-2 punch that every contending team needs.

This is what fans thought they were getting in 2013, and a return that’s close to that form would be huge for this staff.

Mostly, an improvement from Wacha would take some pressure off Martinez to be “the guy” every time the team needs a big win.

ST. LOUIS, MO – SEPTEMBER 10: Starter Adam Wainwright /

Will a return to classic Adam Wainwright spell the solution to the St. Louis Cardinals’ success?

It’s tough to know what to make of Adam Wainwright at this point in his career. The guy is so honest in his self-criticisms, yet so confident in his abilities that you want to believe he can regain some of the form that made him a 20-game-winner for the St. Louis Cardinals as recently as 2014.

What’s more, his surgery to clean up some cartilage in his elbow at the end of last season promises to help Wainwright regain some of the velocity he lost in the last couple of years.

However, it’s difficult to deny his declining performance following his return from a missed 2015 season due to a ruptured Achilles tendon. The post-2015 Waino is striking out fewer batters, getting fewer ground balls, giving up more home runs (and getting hit harder) than ever before.

Some of this might be due to that elbow issue and that reduced velocity, but if it’s simply Father Time catching up to the 36-year-old, no one would be surprised.

Why Wainwright is the most important starting pitcher

If Yadier Molina is the heart and soul of the St. Louis Cardinals and Tommy Pham is the emerging vocal leader of the clubhouse, Wainwright is the guy who can be both.

He can lead by example or call out his teammates when necessary, and he knows how to have fun playing a game that’s supposed to be fun! Yet, all of these traits are more impactful when you’re a force on the bump. If Waino gets rocked again in 2018, his leadership abilities only go so far.

Still, Wainwright doesn’t have to be the ace to have a huge impact. If he shows that he’s got more miles in the tank, it would be a tremendous example to the team’s young power arms that pitching smart is more important than throwing hard.

Can “The Lizard King” do more than bite lizard heads in 2017? Will this spell the solution to the St. Louis Cardinals’ success?

Speaking of miles in the tank, the questions surrounding Miles Mikolas are less about how many innings he can give the St. Louis Cardinals, and more about what kind of innings they’ll receive. Is “The Lizard King” the lemon he appeared to be during his first MLB tour, or has his Japanese tuneup made him a factor in the NL-Central race?

The front office thinks highly of him, but until we see him against big league hitters he’s the biggest question mark.

What if Mozeliak and Girsch and the Cardinals’ scouting department are the smart guys they’re expected to be? What if the Cards pulled a fast one on the rest of the league and spent a mere $15.5 million on a guy who will help them overcome Darvish and his $126 million in guaranteed money? What if Miles can go the distance?

Why Mikolas is the most important starting pitcher

Due to how much we don’t know — as fans, not scouts — about Mikolas, it’s easy to declare him to be the most important starter because of the extreme disparity in perceived potential outcomes. If he’s great, we’ll be contenders, right? But if he’s a horrible mistake, we know where to point our fingers and proclaim, “Why didn’t you resign Lynn or sign Arrieta?”

The biggest risk will get the most attention for how successful this offseason was for the Cards.

Yet, if Mikolas falters and Alex Reyes or Jack Flaherty prove they are worthy of “top prospect” status, will anyone really care? At this point, barring an injury to a young guy, Mikolas is simply a lottery ticket with an insurance policy.

CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 20: Luke Weaver /

Can the young Jedi return to a starting role and avoid a sophomore slump and will this spell the solution to the St. Louis Cardinals’ success?

Luke “Dream” Weaver has appeared in two straight seasons for the St. Louis Cardinals, and 2017 showed that he had learned quite a bit from his first checkered run. In limited innings, Weaver has shown an ability to get strikeouts with his excellent stuff, but he’s also shown instances of falling apart that aren’t all that surprising for a 24-year-old.

If Luke takes another leap in 2018, the Cardinals have another solid starter on their hands that could rival any team’s 5th starter.

However, Luke has only started 18 major league games and never pitched more than the 138 innings he pitched last season. Who’s to say that the quality of his innings won’t nosedive as his innings total rises and major league hitters get to see him more and more?

Perhaps he’ll suffer a downturn in performance; a sophomore slump, as it were. Maybe his arm won’t hold up, as we’ve seen from so many other young pitchers who get overextended.

Why Luke Weaver is the most important starting pitcher

More from Redbird Rants

When the Cubs added Darvish, their 4th and 5th starters became Kyle Hendricks and Tyler Chatwood (presumably). Assuming Mikolas is passable as a starter, the Cardinals need Luke Weaver to be better than the league’s other 4th and 5th starters. He looks like he can be more than that, but how soon? If it’s not this year, then what?

If Weaver not only shows that he’s a serviceable pitcher who can throw a full season’s worth of innings, that will go a long way towards solidifying what seems like a wobbly St. Louis Cardinals rotation. If he needs more seasoning, though, the back end of this rotation could be very week until Reyes shows he’s ready.

Verdict?

If forced to choose, I’d say the most important St. Louis Cardinals starter is Carlos Martinez. If he’s not an ace, everyone who follows him will have to not only answer the questions surrounding them, but exceed them in order to compete with the Cubs and Brewers. Alternatively, I think the next most important pitchers are the rotation’s backups: Reyes and Flaherty.

By not adding a veteran starting pitcher, Mo and Co. have made a clear statement: They think that the organization’s young guns are the best choice for pitching the innings that a veteran would have otherwise been given.

Next: Plan-B for the 2018 Cardinals

If the youth movement is everything it’s supposed to be, than it shouldn’t matter as much if Wacha is a middle of the rotation guy, if Wainwright is just plain old, if Mikolas is a bust, or if Weaver isn’t the immediate answer.

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