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St. Louis Cardinals: Why the Cardinals will not sign Greg Holland
The St. Louis Cardinals will not sign Greg Holland or even trade for Alex Colome. A look at recent Cardinal history tells us why.
St. Louis Cardinals fans have hoped the front office would be aggressive in signing or trading for a closer during this offseason. However, I believe the front office will not sign or trade for a Greg Holland or a Alex Colome.
Why?
The short answer is recent history. The long answer is Ryan Franklin, Fernando Salas, Jason Motte, Edward Mujica, Trevor Rosenthal, and Seung Hwan Oh.
All those names were either free agents signed to short-term contracts to be a middle reliever or developed by the Cardinals in their minor league system. Eventually, they all ended up being in the closer role for the St. Louis Cardinals.
In fact, the St. Louis Cardinals have not signed a free agent for the closer role since Jason Isringhausen in 2002. Isringhausen held that role until he was relieved of it during the 2009 season by Ryan Franklin.
Ryan Franklin was originally signed to the Cardinal bullpen in 2007 on a one year contract. He later signed a two-year extension during the 2007 season and another extension during the 2009 season.
However, Franklin was removed from the closer role in April of 2011 after blowing four saves in fives chances. He was released on June 29, 2011 after posting a 8.46 ERA in 27.2 innings. He also gave up 44 hits while opponents hit .367 against him.
Fernando Salas replaced Franklin as the primary closer during the 2011 season. Salas pitched in the Mexican League before coming over to St. Louis in 2007. The right-handed reliever advanced through the Cardinal system and made his first major league appearance in 2010.
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Salas saved 24 games in 30 attempts with a 2.28 ERA during the Cardinals 2011 World Series Championship season.
However in 2012, Salas started the season 0-3 with a 6.32 ERA and optioned to AAA Memphis. By the end of the 2013 season, Fernando Salas was traded to the Los Angeles Angels.
Jason Motte stepped into the primary closer role during the 2012 season and saved 42 games in 47 attempts. He had a 2.75 ERA in 72 innings with a .917 WHIP. Motte had a postseason 2.08 ERA with eight saves in 19 games with the Cardinals.
Motte was selected in the 19th round of the 2003 Major League draft by the Cardinals as a catcher. By 2006, he converted to a pitcher and started climbing in the Cardinal minor league system. Jason Motte made his major league debut in September 2008.
Edward Mujica took over the closer role during the 2013 season after Motte had Tommy John surgery in May. The Cardinals received Mujica in a trade during the 2012 season from the Miami Marlins. He was originally intended to be used in the 7th inning of games for the Cardinals.
During the 2013 season, Mujica saved 37 games in 41 opportunities with a 2.78 ERA. However, Manager Mike Matheny transitioned to Trevor Rosenthal by season’s end to the closer position. Edward Mujica became a free agent after the season and signed with the Boston Red Sox.
Trevor Rosenthal was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 21st round of the 2009 MLB draft. Rosenthal rose through the Cardinal minor league system and made his major league debut on July 16, 2012. As stated, he was the primary closer for the Cardinals by the end of the year in 2013. During the Cardinals post season of 2013 he had a 0.00 ERA in 10 games with four saves.
Trevor Rosenthal was the primary closer for the St. Louis Cardinals for the 2014 and 2015 seasons. He saved 45 games in 2014 and 48 games in 2015. He had ERAs of 3.20 in 2014 and 2.10 in 2015. His 48 saves in 2015 broke a franchise record previously held by Lee Smith and Jason Isinghausen.
However in 2016, Rosenthal faltered as the Cardinals closer and was replaced by Seung Hwan Oh.
Seung Hwan Oh was signed to a one year contract by the St.Louis Cardinals on January 11, 2016 to be the set up man for closer Trevor Rosenthal. Oh had been pitching in South Korea since 2005, before coming to the Cardinals.
After taking over for Trevor Rosenthal, Oh had 19 saves in 23 attempts. He also had a 1.92 ERA in 79.2 innings with a 6-3 record. Oh’s performance for 2016 earned him an extension from the Cardinals for 2017.
But in 2017, Oh faltered as the Cardinals primary closer. By July, Trevor Rosenthal was reinstated as the primary closer. Unfortunately, Rosenthal was injured in August and needed Tommy John surgery that ended his season.
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen in 2017 had 17 blown saves. Oh’s ERA rose to 4.10 by the season’s end and was not re-signed by the Cardinals.
The St. Louis Cardinals have used seven primary closers in nine years. From 2009 to 2015, the Cardinals were relatively successful in promoting from within the organization to fill this role. Whether it was veterans like Ryan Franklin and Edward Mujica or young hurlers developed by the organization such as Jason Motte and Trevor Rosenthal.
However, in the last two seasons, this strategy has cost the Cardinals 34 blown saves. Consequently, an argument can be made this has kept them out of the postseason for the last two years.
Thus, the question is now, will the St. Louis Cardinals continue this “low-cost” strategy or is it time for a change. Should the Cardinals try to sign a free agent such as Greg Holland or trade for a Alex Colome?
My personal opinion is the St. Louis Cardinals should go after Greg Holland or Alex Colome. Nevertheless, John Mozeliak and Michael Girsch have indicated they will continue the low-cost. low risk strategy of recent years. The Cardinals have shown this by adding arms such as veteran Luke Gregerson and youngster Dominic Leone.
Next: Holland continues to make sense for the Cards
In conclusion, I expect the Cardinals use a veteran arm such as Gregerson or a young arm such as Alex Reyes as the primary closer. Low risk, low cost, and likely low reward.