St. Louis Cardinals: A blockbuster, one-stop-shop in Seattle

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Mariners give a lot and get a lot in this deal.

So, the final trade ends up being as follows:

To St. Louis: Kyle Seager, James Paxton, Edwin Diaz

To Seattle: Stephen Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko, Harrison Bader, Dakota Hudson, Luke Weaver

I’ve talked way too much about the Mariners’ point of view on this deal, so let’s talk abut the perspective of the St. Louis Cardinals. Like I said earlier, this trade is everything you could need this offseason.

Paxton is a power-armed 29-year-old left-handed starter entering his 4th full Major League season after being drafted in 2010. Dealing with health problems his whole career, there is serious injury risk here than just can’t be ignored, but I’m willing to take a risk that I believe will pay off in a big way.

The Canadian posted a 2.98 ERA, 2.61 FIP and whopping 4.6 fWAR last season in just 136 IP, highlighted by 10.4 K/9, a 4.7% walk rate and a career low 0.6 HR/9. Although he hasn’t pitched more than that 136 inning total in a full season at the Major League level, Steamer still projects a terrific 2018 season from the big lefty, forecasting a 3.53 ERA and 3.8 fWAR in 176 innings pitched.

The St. Louis Cardinals haven’t had a front line left-handed starter in ages – I honestly can’t remember the last one – and Paxton would certainly fill that role along with whatever hole is in the starting rotation.

In addition to Paxton, Kyle Seager is one of the most underrated players in all of baseball. In six extremely productive MLB seasons, Corey’s brother has posted a sterling total of 26.5 fWAR, almost silently averaging 4.4 fWAR per season.

If you’re looking for that ‘impact bat’ to put in the middle of the order, he certainly won’t be Giancarlo Stanton by any stretch of the imagination, but this is certainly an ‘impact bat.’ Seager’s 27 HR’s and 88 RBI’s in 2017 would have both led the Cardinals, and bear in mind that his 106 WRC+ is a career regression number in his age-29 season.

Steamer sees an offensive bounce back in 2018 on the back of a 34 point jump in OPS combined with Seager’s typically great defense, (37.7 career Fangraphs DEF value and a 2014 Gold Glove) and power numbers (projected 28 HR’s, 88 RBI’s and .206 ISO).

The Cardinals received a respectable 2.3 fWAR from the 3rd base position in 2017, but even a slight jump to 3.6 fWAR in 2018 would make a huge difference.

Rounding out the trio of new Cardinals is Edwin Diaz. The Puerto Rican flamethrower burst onto the scene in 2016 by striking out literally everyone in sight, (15.3 K/9) en route to 1.9 fWAR, 18 saves and a 1.88 xFIP in just 51 innings pitched. 2017 saw the youngster regress a bit, but Diaz still put up a more than respectable 12.2 K/9, 3.27 ERA and 1.0 fWAR.

His walk rate more than doubled in 2017 from 2.3 BB/9 in 2016 to 4.7 BB/9 last year, and that loss of control can be pointed to as reason for Diaz’s regression. The Puerto Rican connection between him and Yadier Molina, as shown in the WBC this past March, is extremely strong and I believe that one year under the tutelage of St. Louis’ 8-time Gold Glover will get Diaz right back to where he was in 2016.

Steamer also likes Diaz as a bit of a bounce back candidate in 2018, projecting him for a 3.20 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 1.5 fWAR and 32 saves in 65.0 IP. If the St. Louis Cardinals can get him, this is exactly the kind of power-arm they’re looking for in the 2018 bullpen.

More from Redbird Rants

• Cardinals: Trade targets after signing Willson Contreras
• Reflecting on the 2013 Cardinals’ top 30 prospects
• Cardinals: Here is Willson Contreras’ first message for St. Louis fans
• How do the St. Louis Cardinals stack up with Willson Contreras?
• Cardinals: The insane asking price the Athletics had for Sean Murphy

St. Louis would have 12 years of control between the three acquired players in this trade while sending 26 years of control among five players back to Seattle.

It’s certainly a blockbuster for both sides, but the Cardinals would be dealing from surplus in order to address holes on the team while Seattle would be re-tooling for the near future while shedding some payroll in the form of Kyle Seager’s (still highly affordable) contract.

Does this trade solve every single one of the St. Louis Cardinals’ problems? No, Mike Matheny is still behind the bench, starting pitching still looks thin, there are more arms needed in the bullpen and Randal Grichuk would now be the incumbent right fielder.

However, this knocks out three needs in one trade while not remotely decimating the minor league system and markedly making the St. Louis Cardinals better in 2018.

Next: Cardinals discussing a Colome trade

It’s not meant to be a be-all, end-all, it’s just one hell of a start. Thanks for reading!