What would a successful season look like for the Cardinals in 2025?

Opening Weekend is now upon us. The wait is finally over. Instead of speculating, St. Louis Cardinals fans will soon be able to see what their team is made of in 2025. Some fans are hopeful that young stars can lead this team to a division win or Wild Card spot. Other fans want the team to perform mediocre so that they can acquire prospects via trade at the deadline. Even some fans are hoping that the Cardinals crash and burn in order to see changes in the front office. With all of these possible outcomes in mind, what would success look like for St. Louis in 2025?

There are a variety of factors that play into what fair expectations look like for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025

The honest answer to this question includes a little bit from each mindset. Starting with young stars, it would be impossible to expect every Cardinals prospect to break out in 2025. With that being said, four or five great seasons from young talent would give the fan base hope for the future. Masyn Winn may be the most likely, but this could be seen from Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Victor Scott II, Alec Burleson, Thomas Saggese, Michael McGreevy, etc. Poor seasons from many of these players may lead fans to dread the future. As far as team success is concerned, I would find a third-place finish in the division to be realistic and moderately successful. I predicted that the team would finish about a handful of games below .500 due to all the different variables at play. Anything above this would be a pleasant surprise.

Next comes the question of roster construction and preparation to contend in the future. As it stands, the Cardinals have quite an old starting rotation. To make matters even worse, many of them have question marks surrounding their performances in recent seasons, like Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz. Throw in Sonny Gray’s spring struggles, and it is clear to see why the starting rotation has left many fans doubtful. If the Cardinals do not start the first half of the season surprisingly hot, fans should consider trades of current veterans or players on expiring contracts that fetch solid prospects in return as successful.

Whether this is Erick Fedde, Nolan Arenado, Ryan Helsey, Mikolas, or Matz, Cardinals fans should be happy to move on from these players if they are able to fetch a solid return. Making these moves would not only give young players more playing time, but also aid the coaching staff in assessing talent and finding direction for seasons to come. This would show that the front office was finally moving towards future preparation, something they did not do much of in the offseason. With that being said, if the Cardinals are in the hunt for the division lead or even leading halfway through the year, it may be acceptable to keep the roster as is. However, I find this to be an unlikely scenario.

Lastly, tanking comes into play. By no means should Cardinals fans be hopeful for a terrible season, no matter how frustrated they are with ownership. But, with that in mind, it is clear to see why fans are eager to move on from John Mozeliak and even Oliver Marmol. Mozeliak has already announced that he would step down at the conclusion of the 2025 season, but Marmol is signed through the 2026 season. If the Cardinals move on from Marmol in any way during the 2025 season, or right after, I would view this as a long-term success for the franchise.

In the end, a realistic but successful season for the Cardinals would look something like this: a second- or third-place finish in the division, with a win total ranging anywhere from the low 70s to the mid-80s. Breakout seasons from at least a few young stars and flashes of potential from others. This will help the team decide on who will remain a franchise cornerstone and whom they should move on from. Sizable prospect returns via trade, trading away veterans or expiring contracts for pieces that will help the ball club in the future. And finally, a successful end to the 2025 campaign would see Chaim Bloom move on from Oliver Marmol in favor of a new manager who could revive hope and re-instill confidence in the St. Louis Cardinals franchise.