What the 2025 free agent starting pitching market means for the St. Louis Cardinals

Major League Baseball's free agency period is slowly gaining ground. In the last week, mid-tier starting pitchers like Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, and Matthew Boyd have all signed contracts.

It's been reported multiple times that the St. Louis Cardinals will not be active in this year's market, a stark contrast to the team's behaviors of recent history. If the prices of these starting pitchers are any indication of what the market will pan out to be, it may end up being a good thing that the Cardinals aren't participating.

Yusei Kikuchi boasts a career 4.57 ERA and a 41-47 record. He had a rough start to the 2024 season, as he posted a 4.75 ERA through 115.2 innings with the Toronto Blue Jays. He performed much better after being traded to the Houston Astros at the trade deadline (2.70 ERA in 60 innings), and his strikeout rate rose to 11.4 Ks per nine innings. Kikuchi agreed to a three-year, $63 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels.

Frankie Montas finished 2024 with a 4.84 ERA, 4.71 FIP, and an 89 ERA+ in 150.2 innings. Montas has made at least 27 starts in three of the past four seasons. His career numbers are only marginally better than his 2024 stats. Montas signed a two-year, $34 million deal with the New York Mets.

Matthew Boyd finished 2024 with a 2.72 ERA and a 3.29 FIP, albeit in only 39.2 innings across eight starts. He has a career 4.85 ERA and a 4.58 FIP. Boyd improved his strikeout numbers last year, but he hasn't pitched more than 78 innings since 2019 due to injuries. He agreed to a two-year, $29 million contract with the Chicago Cubs.

These contracts provide support for the Cardinals' absence from the free agent market this offseason.

The St. Louis Cardinals aren't in desperate need of starting pitching. They have Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and Michael McGreevy on the depth chart at the moment. Gordon Graceffo, Zack Thompson, Matthew Liberatore, and Quinn Mathews could also challenge for rotation spots in spring.

The Cardinals don't need to spend excessive amounts of money on these mid-level free agents this winter, a market John Mozeliak typically shops in -- see Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn from last offseason. At this point, even Sonny Gray's $25 million average annual value is looking like a bargain.

The organization is intent on cutting payroll while remaining competitive. Spending tens of millions of dollars on near-replacement-level starting pitchers is no longer a viable strategy. By staying out of the free agent starting pitching market this offseason, the Cardinals are able to still utilize pitchers like Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy for a fraction of the cost of pitchers like Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd, and Yusei Kikuchi.

The Cardinals' veteran starting pitchers' values continue to rise with each free agent signing.

This is especially true of Erick Fedde. Fedde posted an ERA of 3.30 last year with a FIP of 3.86 in 177.1 innings last year. He's also at least half as expensive as the other pitchers, and he's a third of the price of Yusei Kikuchi for what was better production last year.

Even Steven Matz, someone who has thrown only 197.1 innings across three seasons, has ample value given his contract. Matz is owed $11 million next year, and when healthy, he's still a decent starter or a strong bulk innings reliever. Matz still costs less than any other free agents who have been signed thus far. He is a good comparison to Matt Boyd, another pitcher who had a decent start to his career but has experienced a fair amount of injuries in recent years.

Miles Mikolas likely doesn't have as much value as Fedde and Matz do unless some money is sent with him; however, he can still fetch a mild return in a trade. Mikolas is on the books for $18 million next year. His ERA these past two years sits at 5.04, and he has an ERA+ of just 85. Mikolas's value instead rests with his ability to make consistent starts -- he's made at least 32 starts in five of the last six seasons -- and the cuts he's made to his walk rate are noteworthy. It was as high as 2.2 walks per nine innings in 2021, but it was a league-leading 1.3 walks per nine innings last year.

The Cardinals have two pitchers who are better or comparable to recent free-agent starters and a third who is at least close in value to some. They should capitalize on these pitchers by seeking to trade at least two of them.

With Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy, Zack Thompson, Quinn Mathews, and other Triple-A starters on the roster, the Cardinals can afford to trade two of Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, and Miles Mikolas.