Predicting which St. Louis Cardinals get traded this offseason

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The St. Louis Cardinals are a hot topic of conversation at this year's General Manager meetings for the number of players on their roster who could be traded this offseason.

The Cardinals aren't facing a fire sale, but there are at least eight players who teams around the league seem to be circling and believe are available to some extent. With a lack of clarity in TV revenue for St. Louis (as is the case with many teams around the league) as well as the stated desire to move toward a younger roster, roster turnover is expected over the coming weeks and months.

I do not expect all eight of those players to be traded this offseason, but I do want to take some time to give my predictions for what guys I do foresee being dealt by the club, and who I think will likely stick around going into the season. Each case ranged from a variety of factors including the Cardinals' own desire to trade the player, the player's desire to leave St. Louis, and what the market actually looks like for said players.

These are my predictions, not necessarily how I would handle the situations if I were the Cardinals.

Ryan Helsley: Traded

It feels like one of the Cardinals' worst-kept secrets that Ryan Helsley will eventually be traded this offseason. The Cardinals do not have to trade Helsley, who has one year remaining of arbitration and just led all of baseball with 49 saves while posting a 2.04 ERA in 2024, but he makes way too much sense as a trade candidate.

Jeff Passan of ESPN reiterated the reports we've heard locally that Helsley will be available in trades, and even with a name like Devin Williams being available as well, there should be strong interest (and offers) out there for Helsley. The Cardinals would be wise to jump on the best offer available to them, maximizing his value and setting the club up for success in 2026 and beyond.

Helsley has pitched so well in recent years that he should be looking at a massive payday in free agency next offseason. It is hard to imagine a scenario where the Cardinals sign him long-term, and for as much of a Helsley fan as I am, I don't find it to be a wise investment to extend a closer on that kind of deal.

Miles Mikolas: Stay

It may sound like weird logic, but I would make almost the exact opposite argument for the Cardinals and Miles Mikolas. He is not good anymore, but with the direction the Cardinals are heading in next season, it makes little sense to eat all the money they'd need to in order to just move him off of the club.

If a deal is out there for Mikolas and the Cardinals have enough arms to cover innings without him, sure, they can trade him. But there are other arms on this staff that they need to trade because of the value they can get in return. If the Cardinals move Mikolas, all it will do is shake off the bit of salary they don't have to eat, and they won't be getting anything meaningful in return.

Instead, they should prioritize moving some of those other arms that I will reference later and then let Mikolas' contract run out this season. Let him eat innings. If young arms are ready to surpass him, they can release him. I just don't see why they need to be in a rush to trade him.

Nolan Arenado: Traded

One name that has been notably absent from the Cardinal veterans who reportedly want to stay in St. Louis has been Nolan Arenado. I'll get into those other veterans in a moment, but candidly, I have seen the writing on the wall for Arenado ever since they announced this coming retool.

Arenado possesses a full no-trade clause, so both sides have to agree to any potential trade the Cardinals make. Even so, I do not see Arenado wanting to stick around and play out the remainder of his contract with St. Louis. We already saw the future Hall of Famer get out of Colorado due to his frustration with losing, and I do not foresee him risking missing the playoffs for a third straight year with St. Louis.

The Los Angeles Dodgers loom large as the team everyone and their mother is going to connect Arenado to. Even with Max Muncy present, we all know the Dodgers will do crazy things to put their team in the best possible position to win a championship, and they may see Arenado as a key piece toward repeating as World Series Champions.

It is no secret that the Dodgers have wanted Arenado for some time. They desperately wanted to acquire Arenado when he was traded from Colorado, but the Rockies were never going to trade him there. They tried to will a trade into existence with the Cardinals back at the 2023 MLB Trade Deadline as well. Clearly they've seen his decline like everyone else, but Arenado is still a valuable player, and I bet you they think they can get the most of out him in Los Angeles.

Even if the Dodgers say no thanks to Arenado, my guess is that he will open his options beyond the reigning champs if needed. The Phillies, Astros, Mariners, Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Red Sox, and Blue Jays could all make cases to take a chance on Arenado.

Arenado's contract gets cheaper each of the last three years of his deal, and the Rockies are kicking in $5 million for 2025 and 2026. Expect to see Arenado gone this offseason.

Willson Contreras: Stay

I was working on this story before the news came out that Willson Contreras wants to stay in St. Louis and will be moving to first base long-term. This is great news for the Cardinals and the fanbase because prior to that news, I thought there was a decent chance Contreras would want to go to a new team.

Contreras' bat is going to play well at first base. By most major offensive categories, Contreras would have been a top-three offensive first baseman in 2024. Since 2022, Contreras has been one of the best hitters in the game - period. For a club that still needs big bats, Contreras moving to first base could make him that for 2025 and help prolong his prime for years to come.

The Cardinals and Contreras could revisit a potential trade at the deadline or next offseason if either side's plans change. But for now, Contreras will remain a Cardinal and transition to first base.

Ivan Herrera: Stay

The Cardinals reportedly expect to have trade interest in Ivan Herrera this offseason, but with Contreras' move to first base, I see zero reason for them to trade their budding young bat.

What was the Cardinals' main issue last year? Offense. Guess who was the club's second-best hitter last year behind Contreras? You guessed it - Herrera. Trading away their young catcher with so much potential when the playing time and opportunity are right there for him to lean into would be a huge mistake.

The Cardinals keep preaching opportunities for young players in 2025. Herrera is a perfect fit for that kind of philosophy in 2025. Yes, he has real issues behind the plate defensively, mostly related to his arm. His number one goal this offseason should be improving his arm strength. But if development is the priority next year, then the Cardinals should be unleashing Herrera at the major league level as often as possible to grow as a catcher and continue to develop his bat as well.

Sure, Pedro Pages will get opportunities because of this catching change, but Herrera should be the primary guy. Like Contreras the last few years, Herrera can slot in as the club's designated hitter when he needs a break from being behind the plate, and Pages can then slot into the lineup and relieve him of such duties.

With both Paul Goldschmidt and likely Arenado gone in 2025, and Contreras needing less DH time due to playing first base, there will be plenty of at-bats to go around there compared to prior years, so there is really no excuse not to have Herrera playing almost every day in 2025.

Erick Fedde: Traded

As I said earlier, there are other pitchers in the Cardinals' rotation who need to be traded more than Mikolas. Erick Fedde and his $7.5 million contract for 2025 make him a super appealing trade candidate this offseason, and the Cardinals must take advantage of that.

You may be asking "Why on earth would they keep Mikolas over Fedde?". Well, it's actually pretty simple to me. In order to move Mikolas in a deal (who is due $17.6 million in 2025), the club will likely need to each about $10 million of that contract, give or take a few million. And then at that point, the club would still be looking at a no-name prospect as the best possible return for Mikolas. When it is all said and done, the Cardinals would save about $7.5 million in salary and get nothing in return for Mikolas while eating $10 million of his deal.

Or, if they traded someone like Fedde, they would have no problem finding a suitor for all of the money he is owed, plus they would be able to get a decent package in return. Nothing flashy here, but a prospect in the middle of their organization's top 10 plus a bit more makes a lot of sense to me. Plus, the club would eat none of the money on Fedde's deal while saving $7.5 million.

See which trade makes more sense for the Cardinals?

If winning is not the main priority in 2025, then move on from Fedde and get value in return. They have young arms or veterans with no value they are already paying who can start next year, so why not get something in return if you can for a starter who won't be with St. Louis beyond next season?

Sonny Gray: Stay

The other veteran who has expressed interest in staying with the Cardinals is their big signing from last offseason, Sonny Gray.

While I think the Cardinals could get a lot in return for Gray and would still be wise to shop him if Gray is open to a move, him wanting to stay in St. Louis can be a very valuable thing for the club in 2025 and beyond.

Why? First, Gray is by far their most talented starter right now. While no one should be picking the Cardinals to be competing for the playoffs in 2025, Gray does make that possible, along with keeping Contreras. Gray belongs at the top of a rotation, and he can help the club win games throughout the year as they lean on their young guys.

Gray also can pour into the young starters that should be filling the Cardinals' rotation very soon. Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy will be fixtures in the Cardinals rotation in 2025 and would benefit from continued guidance. Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, and Cooper Hjerpe should be coming soon (all on different timelines). Matthew Liberatore, Gordon Graceffo, Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, and Zack Thompson could make a difference as well.

Gray is a positive force in 2025, and if he could be a big part of their success in 2026 as well. Keeping Gray is a big win for the Cardinals.

Steven Matz: Traded

If the Cardinals keep Gray and Mikolas while trading Fedde, the club's rotation entering Spring Training would consist of Gray, Pallante, McGreevy, Mikolas, and one of those young starters I listed earlier. While there is no need to rush Mathews, Hence, Roby, or Hjerpe, the last five names I mentioned should provide enough pitching depth until those guys are ready.

This means they should be free to shop someone like Steven Matz to see if a club bites on the one-year, $12.5 million remaining on his contract. With the need for pitching all around baseball and just how manageable his deal is, there will be suitors, and the Cardinals expect to get calls on him. He's also shown the ability to make a difference out of the bullpen as well, which is meaningful versatility for a club acquiring him, and is concerned about what he will actually provide.

To a lesser extent than Mikolas, I don't the Cardinals have to trade Matz. He actually is a really interesting fit for this roster in 2025. If the young arms are not ready, Matz can slide into the rotation. If they are and the rotation is full, Matz can slide into the bullpen. But if a club is going to get them anything of value for him, they should, and probably will, pull the trigger.

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