Miles Mikolas needs to be traded this offseason regardless of the cost

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Let me start by offering an apology. I thought Miles Mikolas would be better than what he's shown this year. After a rough start, Mikolas had a fantastic May and early June; he was able to drop his ERA nearly a point-and-a-half during a strong six-start stretch, and I figured that expectations were tempered for the veteran right-hander to a level where he only needed to be a serviceable fourth starter.

He simply hasn't met those standards this year for the St. Louis Cardinals. He's been extremely available this year, so much so that he leads the staff in games started (23) and innings pitched (128.1). The issue is that he's had some terrible outings this year. Yes, Mikolas has shown moments of greatness (6/11 against Pittsburgh and 7/8 against Washington), but he's allowed at least one run -- either earned or unearned -- in every single start but those two this year.

In fact, Mikolas has more outings where he's given up six or more runs than he does games where he's given up zero runs. He's been pitching plenty of innings, but he's taken the team out of the game too many times this year.

Therefore, I would propose that the Cardinals try and offload him via trade this offseason regardless of the financial cost. He's a free agent after the 2025 season, so the Cardinals would only be responsible for covering one year's worth of salary for the right-handed veteran.

With young pitchers like Andre Pallante, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence, Quinn Mathews, and Cooper Hjerpe showing promise and rising quickly through the system, Miles Mikolas taking up a rotation spot is something the team can't afford -- financially and strategically -- anymore. Each of those players listed above can, and some have already, pitch at least to the level of Mikolas, and they'll be a fraction of his price next year.

Mikolas is owed $17,666,667 next year, and his luxury tax price goes up to $18,583,333. That's a hefty chunk of change to throw at a pitcher who hasn't had an ERA below 4.78 in two years.

There's not a chance the Cardinals are able to trade Mikolas by himself to any team; his output is simply too low for his cost. John Mozeliak and his underlings will have to get creative to offload Mikolas's salary this offseason, and there are really only three routes they can take this offseason to rid themselves of the onerous contract of Miles Mikolas. I'll evaluate each.

Route #1: Eat some salary and trade a lesser prospect

I'm not sure which teams will be in the market for an innings-eating, 36-year-old starting pitcher who isn't overly useful anymore this offseason, but there's bound to be someone who will.

Teams are always itching for starting pitchers. The issue is that this year's free-agent starter class is chock full of talent. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Jack Flaherty, and Shane Bieber are only some of the pitchers who will be available. The second tier of starters is equally as voluminous.

Trading an expensive pitcher in a free-agent market that is rife with more talented pitchers will be difficult, but it's possible. If the Cardinals are willing to eat some of Mikolas's hefty paycheck next year, they could save themselves some prospect capital. While this was to a lesser degree, the New York Mets took a similar approach at last year's trade deadline with Scherzer and Verlander. They received a prospect when they shipped out their pricey veterans, but the Cardinals will likely have to send a prospect due to the massive gap in talent between Mikolas and those other veterans.

Obviously, the more money the Cardinals send the lesser prospect they'll have to include. I would be content sending Mikolas with a prospect in the organization's #10-20 range, and this would likely require the team to take on at least half of Mikolas's salary.

These are educated guesses, obviously, but there is a track record of deals similar to this one in the recent past. The Dodgers traded a struggling Matt Kemp and covered a third of his remaining salary to lessen the prospect capital they would have to include. The Cincinnati Reds traded Homer Bailey to the Los Angeles Dodgers along with $7 million in cash to cover part of Bailey's contract.

The Cardinals could do a similar thing with Mikolas this offseason. They can eat some of his salary while also sending lesser prospects in exchange. By sending cash over to the other team, Mozeliak can also request a better prospect in return.

Route #2: Swap one expensive player for another

This is actually something that happens fairly often in baseball, and it's probably my preferred route. The then Cleveland Indians and Atlanta Braves swapped two pricey players in Eddie Rosario and Pablo Sandoval to fill needs for the opposing team in 2021. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Vernon Wells to the Los Angeles Angels in 2011 for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera in a similar deal.

These trades are most often to fill holes on another team while hoping a change of scenery can be beneficial for a veteran player who is struggling. One team with an expensive player could be looking to offload him to make space for cheaper, younger players. Another could be looking to do the same but at a different position on the field.

The issue is finding a team that wants your expensive player that also has an expensive player they are willing to give up who could be beneficial to you. That limits the options dramatically. The Cardinals will have to identify a team with a hefty payroll that needs a starting pitcher in 2025. There's a short list there.

The San Francisco Giants come to mind first. Their rotation this year has been in shambles. Blake Snell started the year hurt, and his return was unceremonious. He's been dominant recently, though. Logan Webb has been as reliable as ever. Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison have been hurt as well, and Jordan Hicks started off hot but has faded recently.

It's assumed the Giants will be big players in the free agent market this offseason, but if they fall short of their goals, they could trade for Mikolas to round out the staff. The Cardinals could pick up Robbie Ray in return, but he's been very bad for years now, and he is owed $25 million next year. The Giants would have to send money back in that deal. Perhaps catcher Mike Yastrzemski could be had, as he will be entering his final year of arbitration, and he could cost as much as $11 million. The Cardinals would need to send money to at least balance the contracts in this scenario.

The Toronto Blue Jays could be looking to do a similar thing, but their expensive players are their starting pitchers. Trading one old, struggling, and expensive pitcher strictly for a change of scenery and not necessarily to fill a void gets tricky.

This route is probably the toughest to maneuver due to a lack of options, but it's my preferred choice. St. Louis could possibly use a first baseman with one year left on his deal depending on whether or not the team moves Alec Burleson to first. Anthony Rizzo, Ty France, and Max Muncy would be interesting candidates to be swapped with Mikolas.

Route #3: Giving up a good prospect while not paying any money

This is the least likely option in my mind. After working so hard to rebuild a farm system that was lacking in high-end prospects, John Mozeliak won't be keen on selling from said farm system. In fact, Mo worked hard to not give up a top prospect this past trade deadline when he was able to land one of the best available starting pitchers.

Therefore, packaging a high-end prospect with Mikolas, a pricey, underperforming veteran, probably won't be the path that the front office chooses. These types of trades are done quite frequently in baseball. This past offseason, the Atlanta Braves traded for Marco Gonzalez, Evan White, and Jarred Kelenic. The Braves promptly traded Gonzalez to the Pirates with cash, and Evan White was also traded to the Los Angeles Angels for a pair of veteran players.

The Atlanta Braves also made a similar trade in 2015 when they acquired Bronson Arroyo and former top prospect Touki Toussant. This is the epitome of these types of deals. The Braves took on an expensive veteran and a top prospect while also not asking for money in return from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arroyo was released from the Braves without throwing a single pitch for them.

The benefit of this type of trade is that it opens up the number of teams willing to make this deal. Every organization in baseball covets young, cheap, and talented players regardless of their competitive window. Mozeliak will just need to find a team willing to eat some salary to receive a top organizational prospect.

Teams who could be willing to do this would once again be the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Houston Astros, and possibly even the Texas Rangers. These are all organizations that boast high payrolls with a creative front office. Additionally, their farm systems are relatively weak, so they could benefit from some prospect infusion.

If this is the desired route of the front office, there is no safe prospect in a deal. Tink Hence, Thomas Saggese, Quinn Mathews, and possibly even Jordan Walker could all be called for by the opposing team.

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