Michael McGreevy's stellar start provides optimism for Cardinals' homegrown pitching

I, for one, had no clue Michael McGreevy had that kind of start in him when he toed the rubber for the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday. While we need to pump the breaks on any wild takes about McGreevy's future as some front-line starter, this is a perfect opportunity to reflect on how his emergence, coupled with other young arms, could be a major X-factor for the Cardinals both now and in the coming years.

McGreevy shouldn't be regarded in the same tier as names like Tink Hence, Quinn Mathews, or Cooper Hjerpe. He seems to be squarely in the group of arms below those guys, such as Gordon Graceffo, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Adam Kloffenstein, and Ian Bedell. The high-end expectations for the trio of Hence, Mathews, and Hjerpe are they could become those front-line or high-end middle-of-the-rotation starters. In the case of someone like McGreevy, him turning into a back-of-the-rotation starter would be in the better range of outcomes for his career.

While that might not sound all that exciting, it's something the Cardinals have desperately needed for years now.

Since 2021, homegrown Cardinals' pitchers (so starters who had yet to qualify for free agency, meaning Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn did not count in this group) have made just 37% of the Cardinals starts. Of that group, only two homegrown pitchers made more than 10 starts with an ERA lower than 4.00 as a starter (John Gant and Andre Pallante). To make matters worse, Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson join Gant and Pallante as the only starters with an ERA lower than 5.00 as a starter from the Cardinals' own system since 2021.

Now, it's not essential that clubs have more starts from younger pitchers, but it is really hard, but not impossible, to build a roster that can compete with some of the best teams in baseball when your internal pitching options continue to let you down. If you want to rely mostly on veterans, your ownership better be willing to have one of the top payrolls in baseball and/or part with many top prospects to acquire that pitching.

Look, the chances that McGreevy, Graceffo, Liberatore, Kloffenstein, Thompson, Bedell, or others in that tier of starters end up being front-line starters are slim to none. Frankly, the chances that even one of Hence, Mathews, or Hjerpe end up being that good is lower than you'd want to think. But it needs to be acknowledged how valuable it would be for St. Louis to begin to have multiple young arms who can be trusted in the back end of their rotation.

Fans continue to be frustrated by the front office's pursuit of old, veteran arms to fill out their rotation. While they surely could target other pitchers, the point is, they've kind of had to bring in multiple starting pitchers each season to just get by, and the one year they did not (2023), things went completely awry.

The 2023 season went poorly for many reasons, but one thing that the Cardinals could not rely on to "save" their season was internal pitching options. Liberatore, Thompson, and Hudson were joined by Drew Rom and Jake Woodford as depth starting options, and none of them could be trusted to make starts.

At Cardinals' Blogger/Podcaster Day this year, we openly heard Mozeliak's frustration with their Triple-A arms. At that point in time, he clearly did not trust McGreevy, Graceffo, or Kloffenstein to provide them support if they needed it in St. Louis.

So what do you do when your club cannot trust its minor league options? Well, you go out and spend money on "certainty", leading the the Miles Mikolas extension, signing Steven Matz to a four-year deal, and grabbing Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn on those one-year deals they are on. Frankly, if the Cardinals are not going to spend like the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, or other free-spenders in baseball, it becomes extremely difficult for them to target high-priced starting pitchers or high-risk starters when they have no depth to fall back on.

While I doubt McGreevy or those other Triple-A arms steal a rotation spot during the rest of the 2024 season, what their potential emergence does allow for is the Cardinals to have more flexibility in terms of roster construction heading into 2025 and especially into 2026.

Frankly, the first domino to fall that allowed this to be a real conversation wasn't McGreevy, it was Andre Pallante. It's been well-documented already, but since Pallante entered the Cardinals' rotation on May 29th, he's been the best of the bunch, posting a 3.61 ERA and 3.66 FIP in 10 starts. Again, no one should expect him to be one of their best starters moving forward, but you'd surely trust him to be your fourth or fifth starter, or you definitely trust him to be the "next man up".

For example, let's say the Cardinals trust Pallante, McGreevy, and Graceffo to fill into the rotation if needed in 2025. Well, they already have Gray, Fedde, Mikolas, and Matz under contract next season and have club options for Gibson and Lynn. Could they decline Lynn's $12 million option and allocate that money elsewhere? Makes sense to me. Could they try to move the expiring money of Mikolas ($17.6 million) or Matz ($12.5 million) and bring in another starting pitcher like Nathan Eovaldi with part of $24m-$29m they save? Sounds good to me.

Let's say they are able to trade Matz and decline Lynn's option. That's $24 million saved on their budget, and they still have a rotation of Gray, Fedde, Gibson, Mikolas, and one of Pallante, McGreevy, or Graceffo to fill in. And then once they bake in the other depth options of Thompson, Liberatore, Kloffenstein, Bedell, and Robberse, along with the potential of Hence, Mathews, or Hjerpe knocking on the door as well, suddenly this organization has a lot of depth starting pitching-wise.

Depth gives you the ability to make splashes if they would so choose. It's easier to "risk" paying a bigger name like Eovaldi, Fried, Flaherty, or whatever biggish name starter you want when you know you're not in major trouble if an injury occurs. Or frankly, they could look to upgrade their dissapointing offense or reinforce their bullpen further with that money. The options are plentiful.

There is still plenty of season ahead of us, so there is no need to get too deep into how the Cardinals should construct their 2025 rotation or what names they should pursue this offseason. Some injuries could happen or guys could flame out, and we are back to wondering if the Cardinals will ever have enough rotation depth.

But for now, I'm allowing McGreevy's start to allow me to dream about what could be moving forward. Forget even the possibility of a young difference maker emerging from their best trio of arms in the near future, but even the prospect of having a handful of arms the Cardinals can trust to be in their rotation for prolonged stretches could benefit St. Louis so much more than you would imagine a back-end starter would.