The Cardinals' pitching prospects are raising the club's ceiling long-term

For what feels like an eternity now, the St. Louis Cardinals have been unable to provide fans with a young starting pitcher that they can rest their hopes upon.

Jack Flaherty was the last guy to really fill that void at the big league level for any amount of time, but that hope fizzled fast. Dakota Hudson was too smoke and mirrors to ever be believed in, and guys like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson have never done more than flash for small moments.

The days of having names like Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal, Lance Lynn, Carlos Martinez, and Alex Reyes consistently rise in the Cardinals' prospects seemed to be over in recent years. That's not even mentioning guys like Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen who found their success elsewhere.

Well, the wait may finally be over for Cardinals fans who want to see dynamic young pitching in St. Louis.

The Cardinals farm system may finally be producing exciting arms for their future

Mathews leads all of MiLB with 180 strikeouts in 126.2 innings pitched, and his filthy change-up and slider are now being complemented with a high-velocity fastball that has raised his ceiling from a back-of-the-rotation starter to front-line guy at the Major League level. Not only that, Mathews is not some starter sitting in Low-A who fans need to wait multiple years to even consider seeing - Mathews may get a call up to Triple-A any day now and could be in St. Louis in early 2025.

The fact that I am talking about Mathews before even bringing up Tink Hence's name says more about Mathew's rise as a prospect than it does anything negative about Hence. For the last few seasons, Hence has been that high-upside prospect that fans have clung to, but his development has been handled cautiously, and he may not hit that 100-inning threshold that the Cardinals hoped he finally would this season.

And yet, Hence has been filthy in Double-A all season, posting a 2.67 ERA with 94 strikeouts in just 70.2 innings. Hence, he definitely fits into the category of an extreme-risk prospect due to his frame and inability to handle a large workload at this point, but at age 22, Hence continues to take steps forward and is still seen as a top prospect in today's game.

The Cardinals have not just one, but two prospects who have the potential to be front-end starters in the future. Mathews is closer to his debut than Hence, but Hence is not too far off. The Cardinals have not had this kind of hope from their pitching prospects in a long time.

This doesn't even touch on arms like Cooper Hjerpe who has been filthy on the mound this season, posting a 3.27 ERA and 76 SO in 52.1 innings, but has battled injuries this year and in years past. I haven't touched on Tekoah Roby, who is also dealing with an injury but talent evaluators think has a ton of upside when healthy. There are other names that are in the lowest levels, like Zack Showalter, Chen-Wei Lin, and Darlin Saladin who are flashing a lot of upside as well.

Now, don't read this as me saying the Cardinals have like five aces ready to come up in the next few years. We all know that is not how this works. Multiple of these names, if not even most of these names, may end up falling flat or being replacement-level players at best. But the more bites you have at the apple, the better of a chance you have of hitting on these guys.

On top of these higher-end names or guys with higher variance in their profiles, I haven't even touched on arms like Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo, Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, Ian Bedell, Max Rajcic, and others who have taken steps in their development as well. They may have lower ceilings as prospects, but they could end up becoming back-of-the-rotation starters for St. Louis, which would be a huge win for the organization.

In 2024, the Cardinals have invested $69.5 million into their rotation between Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Steven Matz, and Erick Fedde. While there is for sure an argument that the Cardinals need to spend that money better, the fact that they are investing some of the most dollars into their rotation in baseball has a lot to do with the fact they have been unable to develop their own arms in recent years.

Just to illustrate how some of these arms panning out could influence this club, let's run through a hypothetical scenario. Let's say Mathews becomes a legit number two starter, Hence is a number three, and two of Hjerpe, Graceffo, Roby, McGreevy, etc. become back of the rotation arms. Well, in 2026 where the Cardinals are already spending $25 million on Gray, they'd have three options for their rotation that make less than $1 million and are performing better or equal to the production they are getting from their veterans right now.

This gives the Cardinals so much flexibility when it comes to roster building. They could afford to go in on a top arm or two to add to their rotation knowing they have cost-controlled depth behind them. They could invest more into their offense. They could hand out some extensions to save them payroll flexibility down the line. And best of all, the ceilings of guys like Mathews, Hence, and others are higher than what you can pay $10 million to $15 million for on the open market.

While the Cardinals' 2024 season seems bleak, it does feel like brighter days are ahead for the organization. Sometimes things have to get worse before they get better, and it kind of feels like that is where this organization had to get before real change could occur. Leadership changes are on the horizon, whether that is this offseason or next, and young pitching is on the way.

While most of the Cardinals' young bats have struggled this year, I still have a lot of optimism regarding the likes of Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, Ivan, Herrera, and Brendan Donovan. In the farm system, JJ Wetherholt may end up being the best of all those names, and other pieces like Thomas Saggese, Chase Davis, and Jimmy Crooks III are intriguing as well.

The future may not be as bleak as you might think, Cardinals fans. Patience has been preached too often to this fanbase in recent years, but in this case, I think it is warranted. Change is coming, and I'm excited to see this new core of Cardinals' arise and lead the next era of Cardinal baseball.