The Cardinals are victim of their own trade embargo

Throughout the 2024-25 offseason, the St. Louis Cardinals have done a whole lot of nothing. Despite free agency opening up after the conclusion of the World Series on October 31st, the team has failed to make any major moves. In fact, the team lost two key contributors on last year's squad to American League East teams with Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Kittredge joining the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles respectively. Although Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak foreshadowed big trades at the beginning of the winter meetings, nothing has come to fruition quite yet.

With Spring Training almost a month away, the Cardinals only have themselves to blame for a lack of trades, as their contract negotiations with previous free agents have made them victims of their own trade embargo. Three Cardinals starters have full no-trade clauses in their contracts, meaning that they can reject any accepted trades in order to stay with the team. This number is very high, as most teams rarely have more than one player on their roster with a full no-trade clause. Nolan Arenado, the only player of the three who has been actively shopped, rejected a trade earlier in the offseason to the Houston Astros. While the Cardinals cannot be blamed for Arenado’s no-trade clause, because he signed the contract as a member of the Colorado Rockies, his hefty salary has proven difficult to offload to one of Arenado's desired teams.

Next, is Willson Contreras who the front office hoped would be a formidable Yadier Molina replacement for years to come. While Contreras has been injured quite a bit, missing 117 games in two seasons, even when on the field, his play has left a lot more to be desired. So much so that the team plans to move him to first base for the 2025 season, as his performances behind the plate have not been greater than the defensive prowess of Pedro Pagés. In nine major league seasons, Contreras has three All-Star appearances to his name, but has not hit 25 home runs once in a season and has yet to hit over .280 at the plate since his rookie season. In fact, Contreras has not been able to crack 75 runs batted in for a single season, not to mention never having won a Gold Glove or Silver Slugger award. This is certainly not the caliber of player that a front office should give a full no-trade clause to.

As a result, the Cardinals are stuck with a glorified Designated Hitter for the next three years, making $18 million dollars per season in his next two years and $18.5 million in his third year before a $17 million dollar club option in 2028. For those who believe that Arenado remaining at Third base for the team would block the playing time of young players like Brendan Donovan, Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Thomas Saggese, the Willson Contreras situation is much worse. With his move to first base, it prohibits Alec Burleson from finally moving to First base from the outfield. Although he has made strides defensively in Left field, Burleson plays much better defense at First base and could have naturally taken over after the departure of Paul Goldschmidt. Even though Arenado is older than Contreras, Contreras is only younger by one year. Despite a higher salary, the team should be much more comfortable keeping the eight-time All-Star, five-time Silver Slugger, and 10-time Gold Glove winner Arenado rather than Contreras, a three-time All-Star with no other individual accolades to his name.

The third and final Cardinal with a full no-trade clause is ace Sonny Gray. Gray is by far the team's best pitcher and has certainly proved to be deserving of at least a partial no-trade clause. With that being said, if Mozeliak is set on shedding salary and stockpiling prospects, just like Contreras, Gray’s desire to remain in St. Louis does not align with the direction of the front office. Although the direction of the front office is certainly questionable, if they have a plan in mind, they should certainly be taking steps in order to implement it. Similar to Contreras, Gray should not have received a full no-trade clause. With two top-three finishes in Cy Young award voting as well as three All-Star appearances, his is much more justified however he now becomes a wasted asset, as the team is not looking to compete.

Where do the Cardinals go from here? 

With Contreras and Gray likely to stay no matter what, the team may have two final chances to trade Arenado before next offseason. Once after free agent Alex Bregman signs, as the demand for Arenado may be high for teams unable to land a Third baseman and once more at the trade deadline. In the meantime, the Cardinals should certainly consider trading starters Erick Fedde, Steven Matz, and Miles Mikolas although John Mozeliak has stated that he would like the rotation to remain as is. While Mikolas’ contract may be difficult to offload considering recent seasons, Fedde’s contract is a bargain that could result in an impressive return. Steven Matz may also fetch solid pieces, as his salary is in between those of Fedde and Mikolas. Deals like these would give the Cardinals a chance to shed salary, receive prospects, and it would open up more spots in the rotation for young pitching prospects like Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, and Quinn Matthews.