Willson Contreras' move to first base will anchor Cardinals' offense moving forward

We've all done this before; come up with what we think is an outside-the-box idea in hopes that the St. Louis Cardinals would actually try we think. Most of the time, the club goes in a different direction, but it sure is satisfying when you forecast the direction they should go in.

In September, I began to strongly believe the Cardinals needed to move Willson Contreras to first base. Bold move, but one that would make sure his bat remained in the lineup every day.

Flash forward to November, and the Cardinals announced that Contreras would be moving to first base for that very reason. Even after the strides he made defensively last year, it was clear that his bat was way too good not to have in the lineup each day, and ensuring he ages well as he progresses into his 30s would be in everyone's best interest.

We've talked about Contreras' position change a few different times on the site, but I really want to drill down today on just how impactful this move may end up being.

Here are all of the benefits to having Willson Contreras as a first baseman

1. Contreras' bat is among the best in all of baseball

After a start to his tenure with the Cardinals, Contreras not only found his footing at the plate, but he's best one of the ten best bats in baseball. Since July 1st, 2023, Contreras has a 157 wRC+, eight among Major League hitters with at least 550 plate appearances since then. He's top 10 in on-base percentage, top 15 in slugging percentage, and top 20 in batting average.

It's a pretty large sample size, but even if you want to say it is cherry-picking, he's been a top 20 player in wRC+ (133) since the beginning of 2022. Contreras has made notable improvements at the plate since 2020, ranking among the best in baseball in exit velocity, barrel%, hard-hit%, all while maintaining an elite walk rate. In Contreras' final season in Chicago, all of that hard work finally began to pay off, and the results really began to show at the plate.

Translation: If you're worried about how the bat will "translate" to being at first base, as long as he keeps up that production, he'll be one of the five best first baseball offensively.

2. Contreras' rate stats are great, but a move to first base gives him the chance to put up the necessary counting stats as well

Contreras has not played in 138 or more games in a single season since 2018. He appeared in 125 with the Cardinals in 2023, but his injuries in 2024 limited him to just 84 games. While one of the injuries he sustained was a freak accident while catching, that's just the point, he would not have been hit in the hand if he had not been catching.

A move to first base will protect Contreras from freak injuries that can happen behind the plate, as well as help give Contreras fresh legs on a daily basis. For an offense that struggled to produce runs last year, they can practically double the production they got from Contreras just by increasing his availability.

In those 84 games last year, Contreras slashed .262/.380/.468 with 15 home runs, 17 doubles, and 36 RBI. If he just repeats that production in 2025 but plays in 155 games instead, he'd be on pace for 27 home runs, 30 doubles, and 65 RBI, all things the Cardinals lineup could use in a big way.

3. The Cardinals may get an even better version of Contreras at first base offensively

This is not something I would bank on, but if Contreras does not have to squat behind the plate for nine innings a game, I imagine the fresh legs could have a positive impact on his bat. Could he be even better than 40% above league average? Are we talking about a 30+ home run hitter? We very well could see those kinds of numbers.

4. We don't know what his defense will be like, but Contreras has the skillset to be a quality first baseman

Losing Paul Goldschmidt defensively is a big loss. Contreras will have big shoes to fill there. There is a misconception that first base is something that just anyone can play, and that's far from the case.

Contreras will probably have some growing pains defensively and that is understandable. Even so, he's proven to be athletic enough to play the outfield during his career (yes, remember how he did that for the Cubs?), and I have a pretty good feeling he'll know how to scoop throws at first from his years behind the plate.

Will he be a Gold Glover? Probably not, but he could be pretty darn good defensively. I don't think it's fair to compare him to the likes of Jose Martinez over there though.

5. Ivan Herrera's bat gets into the lineup now too!

Do you know who was the Cardinals' second-best hitter last year? Ivan Herrera. And he played in even fewer games than Contreras!

The Cardinals' handling of Herrera last year was questionable at best. Yes, he really needs to improve his arm strength, but I still cannot believe the Cardinals left a 127 wRC+ guy out of their lineup consistently by choice. They even kept him at Triple-A for a while as well!

Slashing .301/.372/.428 last year, Herrera playing 120+ games for the Cardinals would be another huge boost to their lineup. Sure, Pages will get starts as well, but Herrera can slot in consistently at DH as well now that Contreras won't need that spot all that often.

The Cardinals lineup massively underachieved in 2024. Aside from losing Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado's down production, the Cardinals are bringing back the same group as before. This time, they'll get more at-bats from Contreras and Herrera, and hopefully a healthier Lars Nootbaar as well. Bounce-back seasons from Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman good go a long way as well.

While Arenado and Goldschmidt are leaving the club this offseason, the Cardinals felt the loss of their bats last season already. We saw what that means for their offense and its viability. But in order for this lineup to become what it needs to be moving forward, it needs true anchors in the middle of it. Perhaps some of the young guys could become that, but we know Contreras is that. And now he'll have the chance to lead the Cardinals' offense day in and day out.