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Cardinals: Signing this player would be a huge mistake for St. Louis

By Josh Jacobs |
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 14: Dansby Swanson #7 of the Atlanta Braves warms up on deck against the Philadelphia Phillies during the sixth inning in game three of the National League Division Series at Citizens Bank Park on October 14, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 14: Dansby Swanson #7 of the Atlanta Braves warms up on deck against the Philadelphia Phillies during the sixth inning in game three of the National League Division Series at Citizens Bank Park on October 14, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
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The St. Louis Cardinals have money to spend this offseason if they so choose, but investing in this shortstop would come back to bite them.

The St. Louis Cardinals are fresh off another disappointing postseason exit where their starting lineup just could not produce the runs needed to beat the best teams in the National League. Many expect, or at least hope, that the Cardinals will improve their offense going into 2023, and one of the best crop of hitters in this year’s free agency is at shortstop.

While the Cardinals do not have a glaring need at shortstop, it is one of the positions they could target to add a big bat to their lineup. Names like Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa all stand out as huge additions to St. Louis and great “third bats” to add to Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Still, there is one name on the market that St. Louis has to stay away from.

Dansby Swanson.

Swanson, who was drafted number one overall in the 2015 MLB Draft, has emerged as a core piece of the Atlanta Braves over the last three seasons after starting off his big league career rather quietly. After becoming a World Series champion in 2021 and a first time All-Star in 2022, Swanson’s stock is rising around the league.

On the surface, this seems like the exact kind of player that St. Louis needs in their lineup, but a deeper look at Swanson should cause the club to stay away from him. Here are three different reasons the Cardinals need to stay away from Swanson this offseason, or risk making a huge mistake.

Dansby Swanson #7 of the Atlanta Braves reacts after striking out against the Philadelphia Phillies. (Photo by Adam Hagy/Getty Images)
Dansby Swanson #7 of the Atlanta Braves reacts after striking out against the Philadelphia Phillies. (Photo by Adam Hagy/Getty Images) /

Dansby Swanson is an overrated hitter

Swanson got off to a hot start to the 2022 season, slashing .294/.353/.481 with 15 HR and 53 RBI in his first 94 games with the Braves, leading to an All-Star appearance and his name being mentioned with the top shortstops available in the offseason. The problem is he regressed back into the same hitter he’s been his entire career in the second half.

In his final 68 games, Swanson was a .254/.298/.404 hitter with 10 HR and 43 RBI despite a great BAbip. For context, Swanson finished with an OPS+ of 115 on the season, just 7 points higher than current Cardinals shortstop Tommy Edman. Part of the appeal of Swanson is pairing a great bat with an elite glove, but Edman is a better defender and arguably not far off from the hitter Swanson is.

For all of the playoff experience Swanson has, in 37 games he has slashed just .248/.297/.423 with 4 HR and 15 RBI. Not bad, but not the kind of bat St. Louis needs.

For his career, Swanson has just a .738 OPS and has never posted an above .800 OPS in a full major league season. If the Cardinals are going to go out and spend money on a big time bat, it needs to be either a major upgrade at that position, and Swanson just does not provide that.

Does that make Swanson a bad player? By no means. Swanson is a good shortstop and hitter, but for the price point he is going to command on the open market, this is not worth it for St. Louis.

Dansby Swanson #7 of the Atlanta Braves looks at a tablet on the bench during the third inning against the Philadelphia Phillies. (Photo by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images)
Dansby Swanson #7 of the Atlanta Braves looks at a tablet on the bench during the third inning against the Philadelphia Phillies. (Photo by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) /

Dansby Swanson will command a big contract this offseason

According to MLB Trade Rumors most recent breakdown of the shortstop market, they expect Swanson to receive a similar deal to Javier Baez and Trevor Story in the six-year, $140 million range from whoever he signs with. And if you watched any of the Detroit Tigers or Boston Red Sox’s games this year, you’ll know how bad those contracts were.

$23 million a year to a player with his streaky at best and has mostly been an average or slightly above average hitter in his career is a foolish use of money for a club that desperately needs production at the plate. St. Louis already has enough guys who are “just above average” in their lineup, they do not need to pay $20 million+ to another guy to give similar production.

If the Cardinals going to spend big on a position player, their bat has to be better than Swanson’s. The best teams in baseball have at least three elite bats in their lineup, and although Swanson can get hot and be that, he mostly is not. Out of all of the free agent bats, the only ones I would spend over $20 million a year on are Turner, Correa, Bogaerts, Brandon Nimmo, Aaron Judge, and Willson Contreras.

Tommy Edman #19 of the St. Louis Cardinals celebrates his solo home run with Brendan Donovan #33. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Tommy Edman #19 of the St. Louis Cardinals celebrates his solo home run with Brendan Donovan #33. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

The Cardinals have good options at shortstop

Again, St. Louis could upgrade at shortstop in the offseason, but the play of both Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan in 2022 means the Cardinals do not need to get desperate at that position either.

Edman should win a Gold Glove again this season and rose to the occasion at the plate as well, slashing .265/.324/.400 with 13 HR and 57 RBI to go along with 32 SB on the season. Edman is not the flashiest player player at the plate, but being one of the best defenders in baseball and an above average hitter makes you extremely valuable.

Donovan should finish right behind Michael Harris and Spencer Strider in the NL Rookie of the Year voting after hitting .281/.394/.379 with 5 HR and 45 RBI in 126 G for St. Louis. Donovan was easily one of the breakout players for the Cardinals this season and should be considered an everyday player at this point. The club won’t want him as their primary shortstop due to his defensive limitations, but he did appear there in 7 games this year.

The Cardinals also have MLB.com’s #51 prospect in baseball, Masyn Winn, an exciting shortstop who continues to make headlines as he develops in the Cardinals system, and should begin the 2023 season even higher on prospect lists.

This means that unless a shortstop that St. Louis targets gives them a major boost at the plate, they can look to add a bat elsewhere, such as catcher, outfield, or even another full-time designated hitter. The club has too many good options now and in the future to invest heavily in a player who may not give them a major boost.

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