St. Louis Cardinals: Who should get the nod for the first postseason game?

The St. Louis Cardinals are in this playoff race and it’s not too early to start debating who should get the nod to start the first postseason game.

First of all, read the entire article before you form your opinion since I wrote most of this before last night’s game was blown by a certain starter for the St. Louis Cardinals discussed ahead.

I’m usually of the opinion you shouldn’t count your eggs before they hatch. However, I believe the St. Louis Cardinals will likely make the postseason and it’s not too early to ask, ‘who in the starting rotation should get the tap on the shoulder by Mike Shildt for the first postseason game?’ The answer, in part, will depend on if the game is in St. Louis or on the road.

The name of the starting pitcher for the Cardinals could be as diverse as Adam Wainwright at home or Daniel Ponce De Leon on the road. You may prefer Miles MIkolas starting over Jack Flaherty if you’re at home and Michael Wacha over Wainwright or Mikolas if you’re on the road.

Surprised? You see the problem for the St. Louis Cardinals this year is there is not a true ace on the staff. There is no Chris Carpenter or a young Adam Wainwright that you can truly count on to take that first start, no matter where the game is played.

For this 2019 version of the Cardinals, it really depends on the home and away splits who you want on that mound in early October. Let’s take a look at those splits and see why the answer isn’t obvious.

Wacha, really?

It’s hard to believe that Michael Wacha would be a better option to start on the road than Miles Mikolas or Adam Wainwright. Nevertheless, Wacha has a 5.40 ERA in road games vs Mikolas’ 6.54 and Waino’s 6.64. The best on the staff is Ponce’s 3.18, next is Dakota Hudson at 4.01.

As far as the home split, it doesn’t really come as a surprise that Adam Wainwright pitches better at home than on the road. What is a surprise is that he is the best starter at home with an impressive 2.19 ERA (before last night’s game). This surpasses Mikolas’ 2.43, Flaherty’s 2.89, and Hudson’s 3.24.

Meanwhile, Ponce De Leon comes in a distant fifth with a 4.18 ERA at home, while Wacha’s has a home ERA of 4.91. So it seems, depending on whether the first playoff game is on the road or at home, would determine who gets handed the ball.

However, as many of you know, the answer isn’t that easy.

There are other considerations

Beyond the home/away splits, the other considerations should be who pitched best during the stretch run and previous playoff experience.

More from St Louis Cardinals News

• The St. Louis Cardinals sign catcher Willson Contreras
• Cardinals: Day 3 of Winter Meetings brings first move and catcher rumors
• Cardinals Rumors: Growing buzz that St. Louis will sign Willson Contreras
• Cardinals Rumors: Here is what Oakland is asking for Sean Murphy
• The St. Louis Cardinals’ 2024 rotation needs work

If you had to make the decision today, based on the month of August, the answer would be Jack Flaherty…easy. In four starts this month, the 23-year old Flaherty, has an incredible 0.35 ERA in 26 innings pitched. He’s holding hitters to a .125 BA, and his WHIP for August is 0.69.

Dakota Hudson comes in next with a 2.21 ERA in four starts and Adam Wainwright has a 3.50 ERA in three starts. However, Miles Mikolas has struggled thus far in August with a 6.51 ERA, which trails the much chastised Michael Wacha’s 5.68 ERA.

If you’re looking for postseason experience, then Wainwright would have to get serious consideration. The soon-to-be 38-year-old has a 3.03 ERA in 89 innings pitched during the postseason.

The only other member of the rotation who has postseason experience is Michael Wacha. In 35.1 innings pitched, the 28-year-old has a 4.06 ERA, along with an MVP award for the 2013 NLCS.

So, who should get the nod?

Quite frankly, if it was a Wild Card game at home, I would seriously consider handing the ball to Adam Wainwright. Waino has the experience in high leverage games that Flaherty, Hudson, Mikolas don’t possess. Match it up with his home ERA for 2019, I feel you would have a very reliable and steady presence on the mound.

If the game is a Wild Card game on the road, I would likely give the ball to Jack Flaherty. If Flaherty continues to pitch in September as he has in August, I just don’t see how you can go with anyone else.

Consequently, if the first game in the postseason is an NLDS game, I would still start Wainwright at home, followed by Mikolas. I would save Flaherty for the first road game, followed then by Hudson.

There is little over a month left in the regular season and my opinion could change. Hopefully, Miles Mikolas will step up and make any decision for Mike Shildlt difficult before the season ends on September 29th. But today, my pick is Adam Wainwright at home and Jack Flaherty on the road.

Waino just got bombed

I finished writing the above before the game started Wednesday night and watched in horror as Wainwright got knocked around in the first inning against the Brewers. It changes the above stats. Wainwright now has a home ERA of 2.67 and an August ERA of 4.70.

He’s home ERA is now higher than Mikolas’ 2.43, but his August ERA is still better than Mikolas and Wacha. You would think, after last night this would change my conclusion on who should get the first home start.

it doesn’t.

Mikolas get’s the start tonight vs the Rockies, and while I hope he has a nine-inning shutout, I don’t trust Mikolas as much as I do Waino.

I still trust Adam Wainwright to make that first home start. He had a rough first inning last night and then settled down the last four innings he was in the game. He will bounce back, as he has before. So it’s still Wainwright who should get the first start at home and Flaherty on the road.