St. Louis Cardinals: Will Nicholas Castellanos be traded to the Cardinals?

The offseason trade rumors continue. Now, Bleacher Report is predicting that Detroit Tigers outfielder/third baseman Nicholas Castellanos will end up in a St. Louis Cardinals uniform next year. Will it happen?

St. Louis Cardinals fans have been inundated with rumors of trades and free agent signings since the end of the 2018 season. These rumors have included Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Mike Mustokas, Josh Donaldson, and others. We’ve also heard the Cardinals could trade Carlos Martinez, Dakota Hudson, Carson Kelly, and Jose Martinez. Of course, there is always a Dexter Fowler trade rumors floating around.

Now, Bleacher Report’s Zachary Rymer is predicting that Detroit Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos will be traded to the Cardinals. In a piece that predicts one trade for each MLB team, Rymer matches up Castellanos and the Redbirds. Even though this rumor seems to come out of the blue, Rymer makes a legitimate case for the trade.

Let’s look at Rymer’s case for the marriage of Nicholas Castellanos and the St. Louis Cardinals.

Bleacher Report, Castellanos, and the Cardinals

Rymer points out that the Cardinals only collected 462 extra base hits in 2018, and Castellanos would be the perfect slugger to help improve those stats. The 26-year old right-handed bat has an .831 OPS since 2016, and as many hits (146) as Paul Goldschmidt and Alex Bregman. Since he came up as a third baseman, he could fill the need as a corner infielder, and could even register some time at first base.

In 2018, Castellanos played right field for the Tigers, and could continue that role for the St. Louis Cardinals. Even though Castellanos outfield defensive metrics makes Jose Martinez seem Gold Glove worthy, Rymer feels that Harrison Bader will offset those shortcomings with his play in center field.

Finally, Rymer believes that with 2020 being Castellanos’ walk year, he would be energized to have the all too common overachieving success that many players in a contract year, much like Jason Heyward did in 2015 for the Cardinals.

Nicholas Castellanos and the Tigers

Nicholas Castellanos is arguably the Detroit Tigers best player. In 2018, he had a WAR of 2.9 and hit 23 HR with 89 RBI, and a .298 batting average to boot. He led the Tigers in BA, OBP (.354), and slugging (.500). He was also one of the best offensive players in the American League, where he finished ninth in BA, 13th in slugging, and 19th in OBP.

However, the Tigers are in a rebuilding phase and don’t expect to be competitive over the next few years, with or without Castellanos. This makes trading their young outfielder before his walk year an option they will certainly consider.

But there’s a caveat, a price to go with it.

Castellanos will make $11.3 million in his final year under contract. This is arguably the main reason his name hasn’t been mentioned in trade talks, but that may change as the offseason progresses. Right now, the attention is on players such as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. But for teams who don’t want to spend the money or prospects it will take to get those two players, Castellanos’ name may start being mentioned as a possible alternative.

The Tigers could trade Castellanos now for prospects, or wait until the next offseason and pick up a draft pick after a qualifying offer. Another possibility is that the Tigers could wait until the 2019 trade deadline and see what offers they receive before then.

Castellanos Achilles Heel

In short, it’s his defense. In his brief career, Castellanos has played both third base and right field, with hIs first four years being played primarily at third base. In those four years, his Rtot,and Rdrs, which measures a player’s value based on the total number of plays made, were both -64. The last two years in right field, he had a Rtot of -18 and Rdrs of -26.

Comparatively, Jedd Gyorko has a Rtot and Rdrs of 9 and 21 respectively in three years at third base. Rumored St. Louis Cardinals target, Josh Donaldson, has a six-year Rtot and Rdrs of 35 and 48 respectively at third. Even the defensively challenged Jose Martinez has a three season Rtot of -8 and a Rdrs of -13 in the outfield.

Castellanos defensive shortcomings will likely lower his value in a trade, especially to a NL team such as the Cardinals who can’t employ a DH.

So will it happen?

Nicholas Castellanos is a player that checks most of the boxes the Cardinals need in an offensive player. He is the big bat the Cardinals need in the middle of their lineup and he is both young and affordable. His one year price tag of $11.3 million falls easily into the Cardinals budget, and at 26 he could fit into the Cardinals’ long-term future.