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The St. Louis Cardinals need a starting catcher for the 2023 season. Toronto is looking to trade one of their catchers. Which one would be a better fit for the Cardinals?
For the first time since 2004, the St. Louis Cardinals will have a new Opening Day starting catcher not named Yadier Molina. John Mozeliak said it point, blank and simple. The Cardinals need an everyday catcher next season. My colleague Joshua Jacobs listed four potential fits, including the two Toronto Blue Jay catchers I am going to evaluate.
The Toronto Blue Jays have a unique problem on their hands. They have two to three good catchers on their team right now. With that surplus of talent, it makes sense to trade one of them to address other aspects of their roster.
Let’s take a look at both Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen’s performance from 2020-2022:
Alejandro Kirk
- Age: 24
- PA: 755: .278/.362/.426
- wRC+ 142
- wRAA 20.6
- wOBA .345
- DRC 6
- xwOBA (2022) .351
- bWAR, fWAR 5.1, 4.6
- BABIP .291
- OPS+ 122
Danny Jansen
- Age: 27 (28 in April)
- PA: 600, .229/.319/.464
- wRC+ 114
- wRAA 10.6
- wOBA .336
- DRC 1
- xwOBA (2022) .368
- bWAR, fWAR 4.9, 4.3
- BABIP .233
- OPS+ 115
Over the last three years, these two catchers have almost identical WAR numbers. However, I give Alejandro Kirk the slight edge over Danny Jansen given his age and productivity with more plate appearances.
Right away, we see that Kirk has a higher batting average and higher OBP than Jansen, while Jansen holds the higher SLG. But with more plate appearances, Kirk has produced a higher OPS+ and a much higher BABIP in this timeframe than the older Jansen.
These statistics are not the only factors favoring Kirk. Alejandro Kirk has delivered more wRAA and wRC+ than Danny Jansen. So does this mean Alejandro Kirk is the favorite here? Not so fast. Let’s dive into xwOBA a bit here.
Danny Jansen had a very unlucky 2020 season. In 147 PA, Jansen had an wOBA of merely .300. His xwOBA: .358. His wOBA would increase to .329 in 2021 and then .363 last year. His un-luckiness began to wear, as his xwOBA went to .326 and then .368 in 2022.
Alejandro Kirk’s wOBA shown above is buoyed by a .418 wOBA in 25 PA in the shortened 2020 season. The next season, Kirk posted a .330 wOBA with a .373 xwOBA. He went from very lucky to unlucky before his OBAs began to level.
The question the Cardinals brass need to ask is whether Kirk’s 2020 season was an outlier. While Danny Jansen would help the Cardinals next season if traded, St. Louis should strongly consider acquiring Alejandro Kirk first.
For more information on potential catchers for the Cardinals, check out my colleague Miranda Remaklus’ MLB post here.