St. Louis Cardinals: Trade deadline strategy options

The St. Louis Cardinals have a plethora of trade value in their minor league system and with this wealth comes options with how to spend it. How will it shake out?

The St. Louis Cardinals, in short, are loaded with young talent in the minor leagues. They seemingly have enough outfielders to stock the minor league systems of the entire division and arms to match. Minor leaguers Ryan Helsley, Luke Voit, Patrick Wisdom, Dakota Hudson, Tyler O’Neill, Austin Gomber, Oscar Mercado, and more could and have been mentioned in trade rumors over the last year. Even MLB players like Kolten Wong and Luke Weaver could be moved.

The Cardinals, even with their woes in seemingly simple things (base running), they are possibly one or two players plugged into the right holes away from becoming a legitimate world series threat. Putting all managerial discrepancies aside, that is a fact with the talent they field.

So with scouts from around the league training their eyes on the Cardinals’ minor league teams how should the St. Louis Cardinals approach the deadline?

Option 1: Maximize strengths and upgrade the starting rotation.

Among many self improvement books and life advice, a common adage comes up that a person should try and minimize their weaknesses and maximize their strengths.

The St. Louis Cardinals strength is unarguably their starting rotation. Currently the starters have allowed 3.98 runs per game which is good for 6th in the NL. Interestingly enough, they also rank 12th in the league in runs scored per 9 (4.2), with only teams below .500 below them.

I am not here to complain about the offense, but the point that the Cardinals’ strength is their pitching staff still holds. So the question is if they should use their player wealth to improve their rotation. If you agree that this is where the Cards should go, who could they get?

Chris Archer

One commonly suggested option is the Tampa Bay Ray, Chris Archer. So far in 2018, the 29 year old righty is having a tough go of it. Archer is 3-4 with a 4.24 ERA and a 3.17 FIP. He is also currently on the 10-day DL with a strained abdomen and is questionable to come back in time for the All Star break.

After flashing superstar potential early in his career, Archer has been a middling enigma for the Rays. Not doing poorly, but not becoming the ace they expected. This sounds like the perfect kind of guy Mozeliak has targeted in his career. Before you ask why Mozeliak would go for an under performing pitcher, know a change of scenery might be just what the doctor ordered (see Adams, Matt). The lack of performance this year as well as the injury also drops his price substantially.

Even though Archer’s price is low at the moment, he still won’t come cheap. Archer is due to be paid $7.67 million next year and then has two team options after that going through the year 2021. With 3 years of control left, by my account it would take a Carson Kelly and Jake Woodford. Both are very promising but with the perpetually rebuilding Rays, a top catching prospect and a solid mid-level rotation arm would get the job done.

Tyson Ross

Tyson Ross is a guy I have not seen linked to the Cardinals in any way but I think they would fit well with. The tall righty is currently pitching back with the Padres and has been putting up good numbers.

Ross has pitched to the tune of a 3.43 ERA and a 4.36 FIP. He is a great option because he is a rental who is only making $1.75 million this year, Because he is a rental, it doesn’t matter that he is 31 years old and is also not going to block any of the other young guys that the St. Louis Cardinals have.

For the Cardinals to net Ross, it may only take Patrick Wisdom (.296/.362/.472 with 8 homers at AAA) and Connor Jones (4-2, 3.8 ERA at AA) to add a solid middle-to-end of the rotation arm.

Option two: Upgrade the bullpen and 1B/2B/3B

The infield upgrade possibilities are very fluid. The St. Louis Cardinals could move Carpenter and Gyorko around the infield, move Martinez to the outfield, or any number of other combinations.

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As for the bullpen, their collective ERA (4.39) and WHIP (1.42) is not even close to what it takes to go deep into the playoffs. They are not all to blame as inconsistent managing and the frequent shuttling to and from Memphis (sorry Brebbia and Mayers) makes it hard for the bullpen to be consistent.

Outside of Jordan Hicks and Bud Norris, who else do the Cardinals have to trust in the bullpen? Giving Matheny another arm to trust in the bullpen may be a necessity whether the Cardinals bulk of their starting staff or infield because of the already astronomical amount of innings pitched by those two arms.

While Kolten Wong’s defense has been the best in the NL at second base, with a UZR: 4.4, his offense has not been spectacular at all (.182/.282/.299). This leaves Jose Martinez‘s awful defense at first base and Matt Carpenter‘s sub-par defense at third. These three positions all could use an upgrade in some fashion.

While the Cardinals have long been linked to Josh Donaldson, his age and inability to stay healthy makes me think the Cardinals should stay as far away as they can from him. With that in mind, lets look at the options the St. Louis Cardinals have.

Nick Castellanos

While Nick Castellanos would not be a defensive upgrade at third base over Matt Carpenter, he would be a great offensive one. Thus far, Castellanos is batting .310/.351/.480 with 6 homers for the Detroit Tigers. The rebuilding Tigers would likely take Carpenter and Junior Fernandez for Castellanos and he could slot right into the top of the order for the Cardinals.

While Carp has started to turn it around at the plate, his time with us may be up, especially if it means getting Castellanos back in return. Castellanos can be a free agent in 2020 and at 26, may be a great piece to add to the fray for years to come. Take a look at another look at trading for Castellanos here.

Brad Hand

The Cardinals have to be more interested in Brad Hand now than they were a week ago. The slow-throwing lefty carved up the Cardinals for two saves during the Padres series here at Busch this week. The San Diego closer has a 1.78 ERA and 52 strikeouts in just 35.1 innings pitched thus far. Hand may not slide into the closer’s role here immediately, but would be a trusted arm to come out of the bullpen for Matheny. Hand is owed $13.5 million through 2020.

To net Hand, the Cardinals would likely have to give up a bottom half of the top 10 prospect. My name that I would suggest is a package including Austin Gomber. Gomber has been very good for the Cardinals in a relief role so far but could slide into the rotation for the Padres.

Jose Abreu

Jose Abreu has been tearing up major league pitching since he came to the majors in 2014. Abreu is a free agent in 2020 and is arbitration eligible the next two years until then. Abreu (.285 with 10 homers this year) would represent another middle of the order option for the Cardinals.

Getting Abreu would shift Jose Martinez to right field and Dexter Fowler to the bench or elsewhere. This is my personal hope for the Cardinals as I wanted the Cardinals to get the big first baseman since he came to the majors from Cuba.

To get Abreu, the Cardinals would likely have to give up Gomber along with Fowler or another proven MLB talent. All would be worth it for a proven bat at first base.

Kelvin Herrera

I am not going to talk too much about this option, as Christian May-Suzuki is doing a deeper dive as to why Kelvin Herrera and his flaming fastball and postseason experience would be a great option for the Cardinals.

Related Story: Wong for Herrera

I would love Herrera as a third option to trust for Matheny out of the bullpen and it would take giving up Kolten Wong to get him. In this situation, Gyorko or Carpenter would start at either second base or third base.

Next: Other players for the Cardinals to target

Both of these options for the Cardinals would increase the probability of the Cardinals reaching the playoffs. Regardless of what philosophy of trade you subscribe to, it is evident that the Cardinals should be buyers at the trade deadline.

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