St. Louis Cardinals: Jedd Gyorko is greater than Matt Carpenter

The St. Louis Cardinals have a nice bench in 2018 filled with superstars. One in particular should play every day over another.

The St. Louis Cardinals trotted Jedd Gyorko out of the dugout on Wednesday night and into the field. Gyorko appeared at third base with Jose Martinez appearing at first base. It is important to note Martinez’s inclusion in the lineup as it turns Matt Carpenter‘s attention/availability to second base when Gyorko is listed at third.

Carpenter was not on the starting side of the lineup card on Wednesday. This, in all actuality, is a good thing.

Before I dive into this analysis, let me say that I’m coming around on Carpenter. First and foremost, I am not a fan of Carpenter and have gone so far as to advocate for his being traded (which I still think is a fine idea). All of that said, I am beginning to appreciate the subtle aspects of his game and believe- so long as he is not slotted in the number three spot of the lineup- that he can contribute and make the 2018 squad formidable.

Of all the praise (or pseudo praise) that I can heap onto Matt Carpenter, I must insist that the St. Louis Cardinals play Jedd Gyorko instead. Yes, Gyorko is just returning from a sidelining injury but he has shown (especially Wednesday night) that he is able to play and at a high level of confidence.

Let’s look at the numbers.

Through 92 at-bats here in 2018, Matt Carpenter is slashing .167/.326/.306. As noted above, Gyorko missed some playing time due to a minor injury already this season and was not on the starting roster out of Spring Training. That aside, through 15 at-bats in 2018, Gyroko is slashing .467/.571/.733.

Just considering those numbers, even though they are not exact apples-to-apples, shows that Mike Matheny should ride the hot hand and play Gyorko over Carpenter. But that assumes we have a manager who understands the nuances of baseball, but that’s for another rant post…

Baseball Reference has a statistic known as Rbat or Runs Batted wherein they evaluate the number over or under the average that a player is worth at the plate in terms of RBI and other factors. A score of 0 would be average. Matt Carpenter is holding a -2 while Gyorko is holding a 4. That’s a negative number up against a positive number.

Ride the hot hand!

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BBRef also reviews players based on offensive wins above replacement (oWAR) and defensive wins above replacement (dWAR). In these two cartegories, Gryorko has Carpenter bested yet again. Carp is holding an oWAR of 0.1 to Gyorko’s 0.5. Carpenter is holding a dWAR of 0.0 (the league average) to Gyorko’s 0.0 (the league average).

When it comes to fielding- and this shocked me- Carpenter holds a greater range factor (RF/9) at third base than does Gyorko. Carpenter’s RF/9 at third is 2.53. While not great, this is not a bad number either. Gyroko’s RF/9 at third base is 1.80.

So here’s the rub: do you play the hot bat to accelerate the offense or do you play the better defender to shore-up the left side of the infield? The question is best answered based on the pitcher the St. Louis Cardinals send and/or the opposing team.

And one more question: does offense outweigh defense? In other words, if the St. Louis Cardinals score nine runs against the Mets as they did on Wednesday night, does Gyorko’s lesser RF/9 at third base see itself mitigated in light of his offense?

By the way, Gyorko went 1-for-4 with 2 RBI in Wednesday’s 9-1 rout of the Mets.

If I had to decide who plays, as of today, I would argue that Gyroko should see himself in the lineup until he proves that he cannot cut it or that he needs a day of rest. Carpenter has been left in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup on the promise of performance but Gyorko’s actual performance must account for something.

Next: Prospect updates

One final note, Jedd Gyorko is costing the St. Louis Cardinals far less than that of Matt Carpenter which is probably why Carpenter is the defacto starter. AND just as I was going to publish, the lineup for Thursday’s game was released and Gyorko is absent. SMH, Matheny, SMH.