St. Louis Cardinals: Michael Wacha should not be moved to the bullpen

The St. Louis Cardinals should keep Michael Wacha in the starting rotation for his (second) breakout year. 

The St. Louis Cardinals are rumored suitors for the likes of Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, and Chris Archer.  In order to accommodate a starting pitcher to a rotation currently consisting of Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, and Luke Weaver, one of the younger pitchers would either need to be traded, moved to the bullpen, or sent back to the minors for additional seasoning.

I do not believe the St. Louis Cardinals would move Luke Weaver to the bullpen if his spot is taken in the rotation.  In my opinion, that makes Luke a prime trade piece should the team sign Arrieta or Darvish.  If the Cardinals prefer to trade for a starter, Weaver would be a great centerpiece in a deal for Chris Archer (think Weaver, Carson Kelly, Jack Flaherty, and Harrison Bader for Archer and Colome).

Others at this site, however, believe Michael Wacha should draw the short straw and be asked to fulfill closer duties.  This, of course, assumes the St. Louis Cardinals will fail to take the path of least resistance and sign closer Greg Holland.  This also assumes that closing will be a good fit for Wacha, and that his spot in the rotation is more deserving for Luke Weaver.  These assumptions are wrong and should be rejected.

Tito’s Take

Editor Tito Rivera-Bosques offers three reasons why Wacha would be a good fit for the closer position.  First, Tito explains that Wacha’s poor durability as a starter would make him a candidate at closer because of the lighter workload.  Second, Tito believes Wacha’s fastball/change-up mix would be great at closer.  Finally, Tito thinks there are better-rumored options at closer, should the St. Louis Cardinals sign a starter.

I agree with Tito that Wacha has an elite fastball/change-up combination.  I, like Tito, also believe his cutter is pretty good and could get better.  Finally, Wacha showed a greatly improved curveball he could throw for strikes last year.  Because Tito and I are primarily in agreement on this point, it will not be the subject of this piece. We simply disagree in that I want that great pitch mix for six or seven innings and Tito wants it for one a couple of times a week.

Because we mostly agree, I will focus on the “fit” of Wacha as closer given the “lighter” workload and what should happen to Wacha if a starter is acquired.

The workload at closer would be more taxing on Wacha

Wacha in the closer role is not a good fit because the closer position would be more taxing on Wacha’s arm and shoulder.  Tito concludes the fewer “innings Wacha pitches, the less irritation the shoulder will receive.”  This conclusion is unsupported and fails to consider the effects of pitching up to three nights in a row in high-leverage situations as the closer.

As Tito mentions Wacha quelled concerns with his shoulder by posting 180+ innings last season.  Wacha was able to do that because he focused on strength and conditioning of the areas around his shoulder between starts.  There is no such luxury as the closer.  The stress on Wacha’s arm as closer would be further exacerbated by Mike Matheny‘s overuse of his bullpen.

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After a healthy season in 2017, there is no reason to question the health of Wacha’s shoulder.  It is likely he and the team figured out how to manage the workload of a long season, and that is what led to better health.

We have no such certainty with Wacha at closer.

Indeed, Wacha is one of the few players (another is Randal Grichuk) who has shown he needs closely monitored guidance on his routine to make sure he conditions correctly.  Throwing him into the closer position would only create more problems for him.

My arguments, overall, are anchored by my opinion that this discussion is irrelevant when the St. Louis Cardinals either sign Greg Holland or trade for Alex Colome.

The path of least resistance is to sign Holland and avoid these questions.  Our rotation is, at worst, very good and, at best, one of the best in the National League.

Moving Wacha to the closer role provides an answer to a question that nobody is asking.  Tito’s piece would have been much more relevant and salient a year ago.  On the whole, however, the argument largely ignores or otherwise discounts Wacha’s excellent 2017.  That was the season he proved he owns a place in the rotation.  Wacha has proven more than Luke Weaver whom Tito labels a “lock.”  That brings me to Tito’s second argument.

If the Cardinals add a starter, Wacha should remain in the rotation

Tito speculates if the St. Louis Cardinals add a starter, like Jake Arrieta, then Michael Wacha should be the odd man out of the rotation.  I disagree.

Tito is correct about Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas getting every chance to start.  Tito is also correct that Carlos Martinez is a lock for the rotation.  For me, that leaves Wacha and Luke Weaver.  The odd man out here is Weaver, not Wacha.  This is where Tito and I part ways.

Weaver showed a small stint of greatness last year.  His last two starts were rough, however, and his overall numbers suffered as a result.  Unfortunately, that is the most recent data we have on Weaver.

Do not get me wrong, I really like Weaver.  I just do not like him as much as Wacha.  More importantly, I am fine with Weaver gaining more seasoning at AAA or with using Weaver in a trade for another major addition (think Chris Archer).

Wacha showed enough last season to remind fans of his dominance in 2013 as a rookie.  He is regaining that form because he is learning how to pitch better, and because he is healthy.  Last year, he earned a spot and it should not be stripped from him even if the St. Louis Cardinals add an ace.

Thus, the young and talented Weaver would lose his spot in my opinion, not the more experienced and better-known quantity that is Wacha.  Any doubts about Wacha staying healthy were quieted last season and assuming he will have health issues again is rank speculation.

Next: Moving Wacha into the closer's role

Tito and I disagree on this one, but I respect his opinion and view.  Tito is not wrong about Wacha.  We just disagree (and I happen to be slightly more right).  Perhaps you, the readers, can settle this debate for us.  Should Michael Wacha remain in the rotation or be the closer?