St. Louis Cardinals: The scapegoating of John Mabry

John Mabry, the much criticized St. Louis Cardinals hitting coach, has been blamed for the Redbirds’ hitting woes during the last three years. But is he just being ‘”scapegoated” by fans and media for the overall team performance?

Because of the St. Louis Cardinals offensive woes in recent years, John Mabry has the been the primary target of blame. It can’t possibly be simply the team having just mediocre talent. Nor can it be due to aging and injuries of key offensive players. No, it has to be someone’s fault and that’s where John Mabry comes in and makes a convenient scapegoat.

Cardinal fans and most of the media tend to hold Mabry responsible for the team’s hitters who haven’t produced, but will not give him credit for the players who have been productive during his tenure.

John Mabry was named the St. Louis Cardinals hitting coach on November 5, 2012 , succeeding Mark McGwire who left to become the Los Angeles Dodger hitting coach. Mabry had been serving as the assistant hitting coach during the 2012 season.

In Mabry’s first year as the hitting coach, the St. Louis Cardinals won the 2013 NL Pennant. The 2013 team was known for it’s timely hitting and league-leading RBI production. The Cardinals only trailed the Rockies with a team .269 BA and 1494 in total hits. Also, RBI production was the highest since 2006.

However, in 2014 the offense did drop off significantly in almost every offensive category. Was this the fault of John Mabry or other factors? Critics of Mabry seem to ignore injuries to Yadier Molina and Allen Craig that had a serious impact on the teams offensive production. Craig was never the same player again and Molina missed seven weeks.

Rarely mentioned by John Mabry’s critics is the impact on the franchise that the tragic death of Oscar Taveras had during the off season. Taveras had been one of MLB’s top prospects and made his major league debut in 2014. The death of Taveras and Allan Craig’s trade to Boston at mid season, left the Cardinals with a hole in their batting lineup.

My article on the long term impact of the loss of Craig and Taveras can be found here:

The next three years, although the team’s batting average only improved marginally, saw significant improvement in most other offensive areas. In the categories of home runs, RBIs, total hits, runs scored, and runs per game all saw improvement vs 2014. Also the team’s SLG and OBP increased from .369 and .320 respectively in 2014 to .426 and .334 by 2017.

But much of the criticism directed at Mabry is over the lack of development of younger members of the St. Louis Cardinal roster. Players such as Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, Matt Adams, and Kolten Wong have been used by Mabry’s critics to justify their complaints.

The disappointing season of Stephen Piscotty during 2017 is likely the result of injuries and well reported family issues and shouldn’t be laid at the feet of John Mabry. Unfairly, Mabry’s impact on Piscotty’s effective ’15 and ’16 seasons is never mentioned.

Randall Grichuk’s love of the “low and away” slider and the fact he won’t stay away from it is unlikely due to Mabry’s coaching. I can’t imagine John Mabry is coaching Grichuk to “swing away at the low and away slider every time you get a chance.”

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Matt Adams has been a model of inconsistency since he arrived at the major league club during the 2012 season. In fact, Adams most productive seasons in 2013 and 2014, were under John Mabry’s tutelage. Adams was injured much of the 2015 season and never found his footing since then. After his trade to the Atlanta Braves at mid season last year, it looked like Adams had found the answer to his inconsistencies. However, by the end of the year, Adams’ production had dropped off and the Braves let him go to free agency. Adams as of this writing is still looking for work next year.

Kolten Wong has been trying to find consistency, both defensively and offensively, since he arrived at the major club during the 2013 season.

Jumping between St. Louis and AAA-Memphis the last five years, Wong may have finally found some consistency. In fact, in 2017, Wong had career bests in BA, OPB, and SLG. Although limited to 108 games due to injuries, his offensive WAR was the highest of his career. By the way, John Mabry was his batting coach in 2017.

Mabry’s critics also point to the decline of Matt Holliday‘s production his last two years with the Cardinals, and his alleged resurgence with the New York Yankees in 2017.

Holliday did show signs of increased production early in the year. However, his production dropped off significantly during the second part of the season. Holliday’s .231 BA, .432 SLG, and .748 OPS were all the lowest of his stellar career. By year’s end, Holliday was essentially a back up DH for the Yankees.

Jason Heyward spent one season in St. Louis during 2015. He had his career best in BA(.293) and hits(160). His offensive WAR was 3.8, his best since his rookie year in Atlanta. Who was Heyward’s batting coach in 2015? John Mabry.

Finally, if John Mabry was responsible for all the St. Louis Cardinals hitting woes, why didn’t the team just fire John Mabry? Why did they need to trade Matt Adams and Stephen Piscotty? What’s the need during this off season to find a “big bat” for 2018?

Why then replace nearly all of Mike Matheny‘s coaching staff and keep Mabry? Just because he is “one of Matheny’s guys?” Wouldn’t have just been easier to replace Mabry, save the prospects, and keep young talent such as Adams and Piscotty.

No, the St. Louis Cardinals front office deserves more credit than that. They see the main problem being injuries, aging, and mediocre talent. John Mozeliak and his staff are reacting properly.

Next: How to win the winter

John Mabry may not be the best batting coach in the league, but he certainly doesn’t deserve to be “scapegoated” by fans and media for the Cardinals offensive woes.

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