St. Louis Cardinals: What to watch for at the GM meetings

When and where will Giancarlo Stanton be dealt?

The prized fish is the talk of baseball and anything remotely related to the St. Louis Cardinals right now, so that’s where we are going to start. With other teams like Boston, San Francisco, and Los Angeles (NL) also in the mix for Giancarlo Stanton, the Cardinals will have to step up their game to reel in Stanton’s talent to St. Louis.

The obvious hold ups are the mega contract (potentially $295 million/11 years, including the player opt-out), the no-trade clause, and the return the Miami Marlins would receive for Stanton. Each obstacles represents a major hurdle the Cardinals must navigate expertly to avoid a total system collapse in the long-term future.

However, if there ever was a time to make a move as significant as this, now would be the time to make good on the promise to become a better team. It’s no secret the Cardinals will try to do so, but can we realistically expect something to get done this week? I’m not so sure.

I think over the next couple of days we will continue to heard bits and pieces anything close to Stanton.  Whether it is substantial information, I think the we can reasonably expect Stanton not to be dealt this week. I see this as an opportunity for Mike Girsch to continue to feel the waters with Miami, but also feel the waters on what other teams are willing to do to obtain Stanton.

Related Story: Update on the Stanton sweepstakes

Teams like Boston may not have the prospect return such as the Cardinals, but may be willing to eat a majority, if not all, of the salary still owed to Stanton throughout his contract. It would certainly entice a team like the Marlins if they could be off the hook for a majority of the contract, but if that’s all I am receiving for arguably the NL’s MVP in 2017, then I might look a different way.

It’s that particular niche Mike Girsch finds himself, with the abundance of arms and outfield talent. However, just because the St. Louis Cardinals have the necessary pieces to make this deal, doesn’t mean it will actually get done either. We have seen time and time again the reluctance of this team get in the way of making a splash in the off-season.

On top of all of that, Stanton still has the ability to use his no-trade clause power and veto any trade to a particular team. it has become increasingly hard to know Stanton’s thoughts on whether he would prefer to play on a coast or in the Midwest. Instead of wondering about the location, I’ll use what Stanton said to convince him St. Louis is the best place for him.

Stanton earlier this year said he wanted to win. I think he knows, in St. Louis, he has the opportunity to do so at the highest level. He will play meaningful games in September and in October. Can I say that for the other teams involved? I guess for teams like Boston and Los Angeles you can make the same argument, but as I mentioned above the St. Louis Cardinals might be the only team the Marlins would trade with in terms of return.

So hold your breath a little longer Cardinal fans. Do not get disappointed if Stanton is not in Cardinal red by the end of this week. If by the chance Stanton is dealt, it would take a pretty hefty deal, in my opinion, to snag him this early in the off-season.

Will there be any contract negotiations with Lance Lynn?

Early reports on Monday, by Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, indicate all players who received a qualifying offer last week have rejected such offer in light of seeking a multi-year deal through free agency. Included in those players in starting pitcher Lance Lynn. The rejected offer comes as at no surprise to the St. Louis Cardinals, but now will receive a compensatory draft pick should Lynn sign for another team.

Just as a reminder, though, just because Lynn rejected the offer from the Cardinals, doesn’t mean the team cannot negotiate a long-term deal with him. However, based on the lack of news, I think it would be safe to assume the St. Louis Cardinals will not have Lynn in the starting rotation in 2018. I think for some, like me, they would prefer the Cardinals keep Lynn, but at what cost?

I, personally, think there is only one way to view this. I think we need to be honest with ourselves, and ask if Lynn is higher priority than getting a big bat, especially if it is Giancarlo Stanton? I don’t think so and perhaps that is why the Cardinals have not really progressed in talks with Lynn.

At the same time, Lynn may see it the same way. If he isn’t going to get the deal he wants, which I predicted to be close to a 4-year/$100 million deal, then he will seek elsewhere.

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However, there is one stipulation. What happens if the talks with the Marlins break down and Stanton is dealt elsewhere?

It would make sense then for the Cardinals to consider making their play on Stanton. While this doesn’t directly have any impact on the GM meetings, Girsch and Mozeliak will be able to gauge the interest from other teams towards Lynn.

Teams like the Yankees, who need starting pitching, could make their move for Lynn early.

I think the thing to watch for is if the trade talks between Miami dissolve, how quickly do the Cardinals with plans B, C, D, etc.? Is Lance Lynn even in those extra plans as well?

If the report of Lynn wanting a four-year deal, worth $56 million is true, then I’m sure the Cardinals will jump on that. But again, I go back to what do the Cardinals value more at this point. They have prospects to fill Lynn’s void, so I don’t know how much sense it makes to bring him back if you can land Stanton.

I don’t expect to know anymore than we know now, but there won’t be any shortage of interest in Lynn this weekend.

If the St. Louis Cardinals cannot land Stanton, then they must find the next best hitter.

If trade talks stall with Miami Marlins, who do the St. Louis Cardinals turn to next, and maybe more importantly how is the player acquired? The Cardinals will have several options if the trade talks go south on Stanton. They will either have to turn to other teams looking to trade some pieces or free agency to acquire the big bat.

The obvious trade candidate we have all heard about is Josh Donaldson. The former AL-MVP would be a great addition in St. Louis, but would come at a price in terms of prospects. It is also worth noting Donaldson would be a free agent after the 2018 season. It might be possible to acquire him for fewer prospects than thought, but for a rental? I think the Cardinals would need some more commitment from Donaldson almost immediately after a trade to make such a deal happen.

I’ll steer clear of J.D. Martinez for right now, seeing as he is a free agent and will not be affected too greatly by the GM meetings. However, it is worth noting Martinez plays the same position as Stanton. This could fuel the Cardinals to acquire Martinez through free agency. However, based on the contract Scott Boras wants to get Martinez, I doubt the Cardinals will go for anything like that.

What other players, though, could the Cardinals consider at the GM meetings?

About three weeks ago, I wrote about the possibility of adding a player like Jose Abreu to the Cardinals. The power-hitting first base man had a resurgent year in 2017 and looked every bit of the rookie sensation in 2014. Abreu is a career .301 hitter so far in his career, and averaged thirty-three home runs a year since 2014.

Related Story: Abreu could be the answer

While not as flashy as Donaldson or Stanton, Abreu still provides the Cardinals with enough power and average to be a force in the lineup. However, I think the biggest cost will be the prospects needed to acquire him. While the White Sox are still in rebuild mode, Abreu is still under contract through 2019 through arbitration.

If traded to the Cardinals, I would guess the team would probably look to sign him to long-term deal to secure first base. Of course a move such as this will displace some players from positions on the field, such as Matt Carpenter. However, a move for Donaldson would do the same.

If the Cardinals are unable to find a partner at the GM meetings, it’s possible they hold out until the Winter Baseball Meetings to really intensify their search for the impact bat then.

With a surplus of outfielders, the Cardinals could seek starting pitching or relief pitching help via a trade.

With all this talk of Stanton, it almost seems inevitable the Cardinals will move one or more of the young outfielders to make room for Stanton. The only questions to ask is who would go and to where? The team the Cardinals send their outfielders too would determine the return they are getting. We also have to assume one or more outfield prospects would head to Miami in a Stanton trade.

Earlier this year, reports had the Cardinals exploring a trade for Sonny Gray involving Stephen Piscotty. Just last week we saw reports suggesting the Oakland A’s were looking for young controllable outfielders and once again the Cardinals were brought up. The common thing in both reports is the Cardinals and A’s have mutual interest in certain pieces.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see more reports from this week’s meetings to once again kick the tires on a Piscotty move to Oakland. However, what would be the return for Piscotty? Personally, I think the only way the team gets better is to see if you can acquire a young starter. It might be difficult to do that given how Piscotty performed last year, but you have to bank on an off-year for the young outfielder.

Which of the starting pitchers would the Cardinals have interest in though? I think the obvious answer is Sean Manaea. The left-handed pitcher has plenty of upside to bring to the table for the Cardinals. Another name the Cardinals may be interested in is Kendall Graveman. I don’t think the Cardinals would have too much interest in Jharrel Cotton because of the lack of experience int he big leagues.

Another team the Cardinals could consider as trade partners is the Tampa bay Rays. Earlier this year, I made the case for trading for Jake Odorizzi. The right-hander has adjust well to the big leagues, and I believe could do well with a scenery change. I think the Rays could use some corner outfield help, especially in right field. It may make more sense for Randal Grichuk to head that way in this case.

Grichuk could serve as DH for the Rays on days he is not in the outfield. In return the Cardinals solid their rotation with a guy with similar stuff to Lance Lynn. Odorizzi has had some injury issues of late, but nothing that stands out as “stay away.”

Related Story: Trade for Archer

If the Cardinals were really bold they would make the case for a Chris Archer trade. I admit, I’d like to see it too, but I just don’t think the Rays would be willing to deal Archer for Grichuk and some other prospects. I think the Rays would want some more bang for their buck in that case.

Another team that may have some interest in the Cardinals outfielders would be the Kansas City Royals. The Royals will lose Melky Cabrera and Lorenzo Cain to free agency this year, opening a potential fit for the Cardinals. However, the Royals do not have any starting pitching outside of Danny Duffy. The focus may be more on their closer Kelvin Herrera.

Hererra, however, did not have as good of a season as we all have come to expect. Perhaps the change in role had something to do with it, but it would be an intriguing trade scenario in the case you can’t send an outfielder somewhere else. This might a last resort trade, but if the Cardinals bring him in to be your seventh inning or eighth inning guy, then it’s worth revisiting again.

One last place I think the Cardinals should at least make some dialogue is Seattle. The Mariners need some help in the corners as well, and they have a young right-hander in Edwin Diaz who could be the St. Louis closer for  years to come. One big connection would be the presence of Yadier Molina. Diaz and Molina are both Puerto Rican, and that connection could help fuel some trade interest.

Outside of that, Diaz is a hard throwing right-hander with serious upside. The Mariners already made a trade with the Cardinals this year for Mike Leake, so I wouldn’t find it completely out of questions for a deal to materialize. However, it will just depend on where the Mariners see themselves in the grand scheme in the American League.

Next: Mock winter meeting update

What are you looking for this week? Let me know in the comments below.