St. Louis Cardinals: Giancarlo Stanton and Fox Sports

The new Fox Sports Midwest deal with the St. Louis Cardinals provides all the ammunition the team needs to go after Giancarlo Stanton if it’s the right baseball move for the team.

So many have opined about the value of Giancarlo Stanton to the St. Louis Cardinals, especially in light of recent news that he might in fact be made available by the Miami Marlins to other teams. So we can leave that aspect aside for the moment.

Instead, let’s follow the money.

In 2015, the St. Louis Cardinals and Fox Sports network announced the new deal, which begins with the 2018 season. Described as a potential one-billion-dollar transaction for the Cardinals, the deal significantly increases the payout to the team for local television rights. As STL Today reported at the time:

"“Based on the expected growth for inflation of the next deal, the annual average rights fee in the next deal will be more than double that (of the then current plan). It will start close to $55 million in 2018 and climb with inflation each year… The total for the rights fee alone could surpass $1 billion, and that does not include the signing bonus or additional revenue the Cardinals will get from the equity stake.”"

The article reported that in 2017, the last year of the outgoing deal, the Cards were estimated to receive about $35 million. So that means even at the outset of the new deal, the team will be at least $20 million per year ahead, again, not including equity and signing bonus.

So it’s pretty clear that the contract, which will last for fifteen years, allows the Redbirds to boost their payroll considerably if they so choose. While of course major league baseball personnel payroll is only part of the total cost of running the franchise, I think we can all agree it’s the most important part.

The Cardinals’ 2017 opening day payroll (including disabled list personnel) was not robust according to most rankings. They weighed in at $151 million, certainly a lot of money, but only fourteenth overall in MLB, behind the Seattle Mariners and ahead of the Kansas City Royals.

On the other hand, our fans were again outstanding amongst all the teams. Even with a mostly middling team, the Cardinal audience was second in all of baseball, averaging 42,000 per game and only falling behind the World Series runner up Los Angeles Dodgers.

From an affordability perspective, especially if the Cards can get the Fish to eat part of the contract (though that will make it harder not to give up key prospects), there’s not much doubt: The Cards can certainly afford the deal.

The bigger question is: Is it a sensible financial deal to do?

Well, that’s a tougher issue. One could hardly argue that if one is going to commit long term to a player, the quality of the player that one should commit to ought look like Giancarlo Stanton.

The overall cost of the deal, with eleven years left, doesn’t look all that different, after inflation, from what the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim bellied up for with Albert Pujols. At the time, though, the Cards were not players for such a deal.

So what’s changed? Easy: The Fox contract. As noted above, it covers the majority of the cost, and might cover all of it and more, if the Marlins eat some, if inflation causes the rights deal to increase over the time, and if the Cards derive the expected equity slice.

Plus, there are factors, to be calculated by the Cardinals (don’t think they haven’t done it), beyond the Fox deal itself: Stanton merch; chances for the playoffs; and, anchoring great attendance. There are all sorts of financial upsides that a deal could bring.

What hasn’t changed? Well, everything else.

Stanton, even aside from getting mashed in the face, has had injuries that have caused him to be a less-than-full-season guy much of his career. As with Albert and his planter fasciitis, we just don’t know if Stanton will suffer physical issues over the course of a long contract.

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There’s also the fact that it’s, well, a long contract. While Giancarlo is heading into what should be four to six heavily productive years, the downswing at the end of a career, in this no-PED era, is less than certain. Stanton is a strong and capable guy, but especially after the age-35 season (which is eight years into the deal), one doesn’t know what to really expect.

And finally, the player option to cancel the deal after three years poses significant challenges. How much talent should one give up in such a deal? How much can the St. Louis Cardinals reasonably ask the Marlins to belly up to offset the years after the buyout?

One possibility, of course, is that there’s a deal worked out by which Stanton waives the opt out provision. I’m assuming that such a point is negotiable, since Stanton has to approve any trade under his current agreement anyway.

If that’s waived, then there’s more certainly. The St. Louis Cardinals can assess more easily which prospects and major leaguers to surrender, and they can also determine the cost of insurance to protect against serious injury down the road. And the Marlins can themselves better assess how much to pick up on the deal and what players to ask for.

Next: Looking at Carson Kelly

There is buzz this weekend about the St. Louis Cardinals making a serious play for Stanton, and it’s exciting to think about the prospect of having him in St. Louis for a decade, aside from whether it’s a good financial deal. But with the right tweaks and considerations, the Fox deal certainly makes a deal for the future Hall-of-Famer very, very possible.

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