St. Louis Cardinals: Post-season magic number update
The St. Louis Cardinals are still projected to finish with 85 wins using the Predator Power Index back in mid-August, but is that enough?
The St. Louis Cardinals are coming into the most pivotal point in the season for obvious reasons. Will there post-season push fall short? Or can they catch the defending champions Chicago Cubs or the offensive powerhouse Colorado Rockies?
I mentioned in an article back in mid-August the St. Louis Cardinals were projected to finish with 85 wins. I also mentioned the magic number for securing a spot in postseason on August 14th was going to take 88 wins. Meaning, we were going to have to play three games better than projected.
Now, 88 wins was not what I said the division will be at and I believe that stands true even today. Rather, 88 wins will secure a no-doubt playoff spot. The division on the other hand, I mentioned back in mid-August, was going to be either 86 or 87 wins. That as well stands true today.
Overall, a month later, not much has changed regarding the magic number.
The Chicago Cubs project atop the National League Central at 87.7 wins compared to the 86.7 back on August 14th. The St. Louis Cardinals are still projected similarly as well, with 85.3 wins compared to 84.9 wins back on August 14th.
The difference in National League Central projections is that the Milwaukee Brewers are in this until the end. They were on pace only for 81.7 wins back on August 14th and projected to fall a bit behind, but now they stormed back on pace for 84.3 wins.
The National League Central is up for grabs, without a doubt, considering the schedule.
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The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs still have six games left against each other, with the second of a three game set today.
They also have three games left versus the Milwaukee Brewers to cap off the 2017 campaign.
With nine of fifteen games left with those teams, all series from here are a must win.
As projections have said all the way back at the All-Star break, the division winner will have at minimum 86 wins and most likely 87 wins. The St. Louis Cardinals must finish 10-5, not their projected 8-7 finish.
The second wild-card spot is the same story as the division. Only difference, although attainable for St. Louis Cardinals, is it is just a little less likely and here’s why.
Colorado has ridden two waves since mid-August: a downward trend and an upward trend.
However, the apple has not fallen far from the tree. On August 14th, my Predator Power Index had them at 88.1 wins; very close to the 87.9 wins it has them on my latest update to the projections on September 11th.
If one compares the Colorado Rockies final projected record and the Chicago Cubs final projected record they are very similar. The difference on why it is less attainable for the St. Louis Cardinals is that we play the Chicago Cubs and have the destiny in our own hands.
As a St. Louis Cardinals fan that was optimistic back in early August, it is great that my Predator Power Index Projections came through and were correct as we head down the stretch.
I knew the St. Louis Cardinals had a better chance than people were giving them credit for and I firmly stand by what I have said about this 2017 team.
Next: What to watch for in Chicago
We may not have looked good throughout the year, but here we are having destiny in our hands to finish out. However, I sure hope we win this division and do some damage in the postseason because until that elimination number is 0, we have a chance!