St. Louis Cardinals: It all comes down to the division

The St. Louis Cardinals have twenty-to games left in the season. Those twenty-two games are against division opponents.

While the St. Louis Cardinals were unable to complete the sweep of the San Diego Padres, the team did finish off an impressive 7-3 road trip. Even then, you could argue the Cardinals should have easily been 9-1 on the road trip, possibly winning all ten games. In hindsight, we’d love to be able to go back and change those games. However, what matters now is the road ahead.

After last night’s loss, the Cardinals lost ground in the Wild Card and Division standings. Thanks to a Cubs win and a Rockies win, the Cardinals find themselves five games out of the division and 2.5 games out of the Wild Card.

Yesterday in my playoff update article, I wrote a little section called “What to watch for.” I briefly touched on the final twenty-two games for the Cardinals. While St. Louis Cardinals’ team of past have certainly dominated divisional play, this year has not been so kind.

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Entering today’s play against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the St. Louis Cardinals are a lousy 23-31 against division opponents. He is something that will probably make you cringe a little bit though. Last year, the Cardinals finished divisional play with a 42-34 record. No, you’re not reading it wrong. Technically, the Cardinals can only take on three more losses to have a chance at the same divisional record as last year.

I don’t mean to sound pessimistic, but there is plenty of work to do for the St. Louis Cardinals. In my playoff update piece, I said 86-88 wins will get the Cardinals into the playoffs. For the sake of this piece, I’ll split the middle and say 87 wins is the magic number for a playoff spot.

Lets first consider the possibility of the Cardinals finishing with the same divisional record as last year. That means for the final twenty-two games, the Cardinals must go 19-3. Yeah, I heard you scoff at that too. But, let’s just play hypotheticals anyway.

If the St. Louis Cardinals were able to pull off such a feat, the team would end up with ninety-one wins, more than enough to be a Wild Card team and probably a Division championship. Now, let’s be realistic about the rest of the schedule and see how that may translate.

To come up with a realistic forecast for the games remaining, I’ve taken the remaining games and multiplied them by their winning percentage. This gives us an approximation of how many wins the St. Louis Cardinals should expect the remainder of the season.

Lets add the hypothetical nine wins and thirteen losses to the current record of the Cardinals. If the Cardinals finished out the season based on their winning percentages, the team would end up with a 81-81 season. It would be the first time since 2007 for a St. Louis Cardinals team not to have a winning record.

An 81-81 record in 2017 would not be a welcome sight for most fans. However, back in February, PECOTA projected the St. Louis Cardinals to go 76-86. Both Fangraphs and USA Today projected the Cardinals with better records at 84-78 and 88-74, respectively. Fangraphs may be the closer of the three projections, but the Cardinals will have to play up to the USA Today projection to make the playoffs.

So what do the St. Louis Cardinals need to do to reach the 87-win window?

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The obvious answer is play better than your winning percentage, but it goes a little deeper than that. The least of the Cardinals’ worries should be the Brewers.

They won’t see the Brewers till the final series of the season. By that time, I expect the playoff teams to be known.

However, there is a chance the season comes down to the wire those days. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

The biggest worry the Cardinals face the rest of the way is the Chicago Cubs. The Cardinals sit five games back of the division-leading Cubs with just seven games remaining between them.

There is no room for error in my opinion. The Cardinals cannot afford only two wins in seven games. Honestly, the Cardinals need to take at least four of the seven games to have remote chance at the division title.

If the Cardinals can take five of seven from the Cubs, then they will be sitting in a good spot. The Cardinals have shown they can beat the Cubs, especially in Wrigley, now it is a matter of finishing the job. But what happens if the Cardinals cannot handle their business against the Cubs?

The obvious attention should then fall on the last-place Reds. The St. Louis Cardinals cannot afford to split he remaining six games with the Reds. Honestly, the Cardinals need to take all six games from the Reds in September. I’ll leave it at that.

Lastly, starting today, the Cardinals need to make sure they take care of the Pirates. After a slip up in August, the Cardinals need to start the final twenty-two games with a sweep. They will not face Gerrit Cole or Jameson Taillon, so there is no reason for the Cardinals not win the weekend games or those later on. Yeah, I know, easier said than done.

Here is what needs to happen: The St. Louis Cardinals will take four of six from the Pirates, all six from the Reds, and five of seven from the Cubs. This will have them at the 87-win mark by the time Milwaukee comes to town for the final series. Those three games against the Brewers are the margin of error the Cardinals essentially have the rest of the way. They can afford a slip up or two, but no more than three.

If the Cardinals take care of business, the next best thing that can happen for them  is for the Cubs and Brewers to knock each other out in September. So I’ll say the Cardinals end up with a 87-75 record and make the second Wild Card spot.

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The worst thing that can is this blowing up all in my face, but I’m keeping the faith. The St. Louis Cardinals have a great chance to gain ground in both the Wild Card and Division standings this weekend based on the contending team’s schedule for the next nine days. Don’t count the Redbirds out just yet.