St. Louis Cardinals: Who is April’s MVP?

As the St. Louis Cardinals finish the month of April against the Reds today, it’s time to take a look back and crown an MVP of the Month for the team.

The St. Louis Cardinals go into Sunday’s game just a game back of the Chicago Cubs in the Central Division. Two weeks ago the team was a sinking ship, and sinking fast.

Through the first twelve games of the season, the Cardinals weren’t a very good team. At one point, the Cardinals had the lowest team batting average and one of the highest bullpen ERA. Nothing seemed to go right. However, throughout all the turmoil and frustration, one player stepped up in a big way.

Congratulations to April’s MVP: Mike Leake.

Last year, St. Louis Cardinals pitcher, Mike Leake, struggled to find some consistency in his pitching performances. Some of it surely is attributed to the defense behind Leake then, but other games fell squarely on him. Yet, you heard no complaints from him. He took responsibility for his performances, and knew he had to be better to give the team a chance to win.

That was last year though. This year, he is providing the consistency and the team has finally paid it back.

Let’s take a look at Leake’s numbers so far through the month of April:

Clearly, Leake is on a mission this season. Through four games, Leake is 3-1 and allowed four runs through 27.1 innings. That translates to a very modest 1.32 ERA, which is the lowest in the National League. Only three other players have a lower ERA in MLB.

He has been nothing short of impressive, and even more with the opponents he and the St. Louis Cardinals have faced. In those four starts, Leake faced the Brewers, Reds and Nationals. I think we can all agree so far not an easy task.

The surprise Brewers and Reds have kept pace in the Central Division, although lately losing some steam. The Nationals now look like the best team in the National League.

Here are his game logs for those four starts:

The numbers speak for themselves. Even in his one loss, Leake was able to go eight innings of one-run ball. Unfortunately, the Cardinals were not able to give him run support. However, in his next three starts, the team was able to back up his stellar performances. As a result, Leake is now on a three-game winning streak.

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One more thing I want to mention about his game logs. The game against the Nationals was easily the biggest test Leake has faced this season. He went seven innings and allowed only four hits throughout the game. He struck out seven batters and did not allow a single walk.

Oh, and did I mention his opponent on the mound was Max Scherzer? Like I said. Nothing short of impressive.

So what is driving Leake’s success for the St. Louis Cardinals this year?

I went to Fangraphs to find the answer. As I looked through Leake’s advanced pitching portion, I noticed a couple of things that are key to his success.

The first is his ground ball percentage (GB%). It is a simple statistic that measures the percent of balls in play that result in a ground ball, regardless of the result of the play. Here are his percentages over the last couple of years:

2015: 51.8%

2016: 53.7%

2017: 58.2%

Career: 50.9%

At the time the St. Louis Cardinals signed Mike Leake, all you heard was how great of a ground ball pitcher he is. Now in his second season with the Cardinals, Leake seems to be living up to that expectation.  He is well over his career numbers in terms of GB%, but his steady increase each year lends itself to what we Cardinal fans heard of him.

The second thing I noticed in his stats was opponent’s batting average. My first key to success compliments my second key to success. In one of the tables above, you can see that Mike Leake’s opponents are batting .204 against him. That’s pretty darn good considering last year opponents hit .282. Do I expect it to inflate a bit? Yeah, but he is off to a better start.

So how does this make him successful?

Go back to the game logs above and take a look at how many ground balls Leake induced in his four games. In the games that Leake has won, he has more ground ball than fly balls or line drive. Coincidentally, the game he lost shows that his ground ball rate was less then his fly ball rate.

Outside of a simple view of his games, think about it this way. So far, Leake has been able to induce forty-six ground balls, twenty fly balls, and thirteen line drives. For every fly ball, Leake is able to produce two ground balls. For every line drive, Leake is able to produce almost four (3.5) ground balls.

What has Leake changed to make the ground ball so successful? His pitch selection has evolved from last year. Leake has increased his fastball and cutter use from last season. His fastball use up from 48.4% to 49.%. His cutter went from 28.6% to 29.6%. Coincidentally, his off speed pitches have seen less use.

Location of his pitches is just as important as his pitch selection. Next time you watch Leake pitch (Hint: today), watch where Yadier Molina sets up his cutter and fastball. A good pitcher can get his cutter in on the hands of right handed batters and down and away on left handers. So far, Leake has done a great job of locating his pitches.

If Leake is able to induce the ground ball, then his opponents average begins to fade away as well. It’s no secret that line drives are the main sources of hits for players, but no opponent is having that success.

Because of Leake’s ability to induce ground balls, opponents are batting .204 and have a BABIP (Batting Average of Balls In Play) of .250. Which means that even if the ball is put in play, there is a 25% chance that the play will result in a hit.

If you’re the St. Louis Cardinals, you take that and run with it. Right now Leake is commanding the zone and doing the right things to keep himself in the game for as long as possible before handing it off to the bullpen.

Next: Kolten Wong is Heating Up

I don’t think any other player on the Cardinals now has been as important as Mike Leake through the month of April. His pitching performances have many fans backtracking their words from last year. Regardless of what happens today against the Reds, he has outperformed everyone by a wide margin. Truthfully, I’m okay with that.