St. Louis Cardinals Rumors: Dexter Fowler or Charlie Blackmon

The St. Louis Cardinals have been rumored to have interest in free agent Dexter Fowler and/or Charlie Blackmon but which is the best option? Our comparison series continues.

As was said yesterday, the St. Louis Cardinals made it well-known going into the offseason that they were going to seek a new center fielder and move Randal Grichuk to left field to replace the exiting Matt Holliday. Yesterday’s article (read it here if you missed it) examined the likely largest free agent CF- Dexter Fowler– and compared him to a lesser FA– Carlos Gomez. Today’s target of comparison is Charlie Blackmon.

As a quick reminder from yesterday’s piece, Fowler- to his credit- is a great center fielder but remember that prior to 2016, the Chicago Cubs were prepared to let him walk away and it wasn’t until the last weeks prior to 2016 that he inked a deal to “return” to the Cubs. As I said yesterday, I’m sure both parties are pleased with this decision now.

Here’s a quick look/reminder of Fowler’s career offensive numbers:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	22	COL	NL	13	26	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	.154	.185	.154	.339
2009	23	COL	NL	135	433	73	115	29	10	4	34	27	10	67	116	.266	.363	.406	.770
2010	24	COL	NL	132	439	73	114	20	14	6	36	13	7	57	104	.260	.347	.410	.757
2011	25	COL	NL	125	481	84	128	35	15	5	45	12	9	68	130	.266	.363	.432	.796
2012	26	COL	NL	143	454	72	136	18	11	13	53	12	5	68	128	.300	.389	.474	.863
2013	27	COL	NL	119	415	71	109	18	3	12	42	19	9	65	105	.263	.369	.407	.776
2014	28	HOU	AL	116	434	61	120	21	4	8	35	11	4	66	108	.276	.375	.399	.774
2015	29	CHC	NL	156	596	102	149	29	8	17	46	20	7	84	154	.250	.346	.411	.757
2016 ★	30	CHC	NL	125	456	84	126	25	7	13	48	13	4	79	124	.276	.393	.447	.840
9 Yrs	1064	3734	623	1001	195	72	78	339	127	56	554	974	.268	.366	.422	.788

COL (6 yrs)	667	2248	376	606	120	53	40	210	83	41	325	588	.270	.365	.423	.788
CHC (2 yrs)	281	1052	186	275	54	15	30	94	33	11	163	278	.261	.367	.427	.794
HOU (1 yr)	116	434	61	120	21	4	8	35	11	4	66	108	.276	.375	.399	.774

Let us shift our focus to Charlie Blackmon. The St. Louis Cardinals were linked to Blackmon during the 2016 campaign via rumors so it makes sense to consider that he should be a name connected yet again. Blackmon was drafted in the second round of the 2008 draft by Colorado and will turn 31 during the 2017 season.

Blackmon has spent his entire career with Colorado and has some impressive numbers. That said, we must remember that these numbers have come in Colorado and must remember how this park (with its altitude) helps offensive numbers. To that, then, should the St. Louis Cardinals take the risk of moving him from the high altitude to the high humidity?

Before making any judgements or comparisons, let’s look at Blackmon’s career offensive numbers:

Year	Age	Tm	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011	24	COL	27	98	9	25	1	0	1	8	5	1	3	8	.255	.277	.296	.573
2012	25	COL	42	113	15	32	8	0	2	9	1	2	4	17	.283	.325	.407	.732
2013	26	COL	82	246	35	76	17	2	6	22	7	0	7	49	.309	.336	.467	.803
2014 ★	27	COL	154	593	82	171	27	3	19	72	28	10	31	96	.288	.335	.440	.775
2015	28	COL	157	614	93	176	31	9	17	58	43	13	46	112	.287	.347	.450	.797
2016	29	COL	143	578	111	187	35	5	29	82	17	9	43	102	.324	.381	.552	.933
6 Yrs	605	2242	345	667	119	19	74	251	101	35	134	384	.298	.348	.467	.814

Looking at these numbers, perhaps Fowler should be concerned that he might have just been eclipsed by a viable competitor to knock him off and out of consideration… Let’s make a few comparisons. Fowler batted .276 in 2016 while Blackmon batted .324 (remember the help of playing in Colorado). Fowler slugged .447 in 2016 while Blackmon slugged .552 (altitude?).

Let’s move a little away from stats that could well be influenced by altitude. In these fields, Blackmon defeated Fowler again. Blackmon collected 187 hits in 578 at-bats where Fowler collected 126 in 456 at-bats. Notice that I did not mention the types of hits since I am working to avoid altitude-influence.

Blackmon also defeated Fowler in stolen bases which is something the Cardinals desperately need. In 2016, Blackmon stole seventeen bases and was caught nine times. Fowler stole thirteen and was caught four times. Blackmon, to his credit, was on the move more than Fowler and the Cardinals could really use an aggressive base runner.

Let’s look at Fowler’s home/away splits to remove the assistance of Rockies stadium:

I	Split	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
	Home	294	1126	214	376	60	14	37	152	59	17	78	155	.334	.389	.511	.900
	Away	311	1116	131	291	59	5	37	99	42	18	56	229	.261	.305	.422	.727

I don’t know about you, but I’ll take these numbers. Even Blackmon’s away numbers work for me and would be an improvement over Grichuk who batted .240/.289/.480 at Busch in 2016.

Here’s the rub… defensively, Fowler carried a 1.0 UZR in 2016 at center field. Blackmon, everyone take a deep breath, carried a -10.4 UZR in 2016 at center field. For reference, Grichuk carried a -0.9 UZR so Blackmon would be a downgrade, not an upgrade over Grichuk.

Let us pretend for a moment that the defense numbers didn’t matter even though we know they completely matter. Money makes the world go around and it completely differentiates Fowler from Blackmon (aside from the statistics above). Fowler is a free agent with a qualifying offer attached. Blackmon, however, is under team control until 2019 and is facing arbitration this winter.

We all might soon know what value he has through arbitration but Blackmon was paid $3.5M in 2016 so he would certainly be less expensive than Fowler. Could the St. Louis Cardinals lock him up on a two-year deal to push him to free agency and platoon him with Harrison Bader to help both players’ defensive numbers?

Fowler, for comparison, was paid $8M in 2016 and, having just turned down his qualifying offer, is likely seeking a 3-5 year deal with a big purse. Fowler will likely need $18M+ to land while Blackmon could be had for $5-8M/year.