St. Louis Cardinals: Evaluating the arbitration eligible players

Sep 26, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Steve Cishek (28) throws during the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports

Steve Cishek

I see the promise here, Cishek has been a pretty good reliever over the course of his career, as his career 2.82 ERA and 95 saves show. However, Cishek struggled mightily this season. Cishek had an ERA of 4.51 in Miami this season and the highest WHIP of his career at 1.594. Coming to St. Louis, Cishek was able to lower his hits per nine innings and his ERA, but he increased his walks per nine innings as it jumped from 3.9 to 5.0. This resulted in his FIP being a whole run different between the two teams (3.51 with MIA and 4.53 with STL).

I can’t tell you exactly what happened to Cishek, but what I see is that Cishek suffered a dip in his average velocity on each pitch this season according to Fangraphs. Looking more into the pitch f/x numbers from Fangraphs shows he also saw hitters have a lot more success on his changeup than they have in the past. In 2013 hitters posted a 1.000 batting average and a ridiculous 568 wRC+ on his changeup this season.

Yes, this pitch was only used 16 times, but if a hitter can eliminate one pitch, it eliminates a possibility and makes the hitter more comfortable. The same can be said for his four seam fastball that he only threw 22 times, that hitters posted a .444 average on and a 189 wRC+. This limited him to just his sinker and his slider.

More from Redbird Rants

• Cardinals Rumors: 3 pros and cons of signing Carlos Rodon
• What’s next for the St. Louis Cardinals after Contreras signing?
• Report: Cardinals Emerge As Mystery Team for Carlos Rodon
• Cardinals: Trade targets after signing Willson Contreras
• Reflecting on the 2013 Cardinals’ top 30 prospects

In years past his slider has been his best pitch. In 2013 hitters posted a 33 wRC+ against it, 2014 a 44 wRC+, and this season it bumped up to a 104 wRC+, which made it a below average pitch and was likely was not helped by the lack of success he had with his fastball and changeup. All of these numbers combined scare me, look I know the Cardinals have the history of fixing pitchers, but I am not sure they can fix Cishek here. Historically, once closers lose it, it is hard to get them back on track and the shelf life of relievers can be extremely short.

I simply cannot see the Cardinals tendering Cishek. He didn’t make the postseason roster and the Cardinals will have a minor leaguer or two make the bump from the big leagues into the bullpen next season and there simply won’t be room for an experiment with Cishek.

Next: Tony Cruz