St. Louis Cardinals: Making New Year Resolutions For The Cardinals

New Year Resolutions for the St. Louis Cardinals starting pitching staff.

Adam Wainwright: Eclipse 200 innings pitched to lead the St. Louis Cardinals staff.

Since 2009, Adam Wainwright has completed six healthy seasons. In those six years, has fallen short of this mark only twice, in 2012 and 2016 (coincidentally, he finished with 198.2 innings both seasons). So why is this benchmark so important if it’s so achievable?

Well, in the four seasons in which Wainwright surpassed the 200 inning mark, he placed in the top three for the NL Cy Young Award and received MVP votes every time. He was an All Star three of those four times, and a Gold Glove winner twice. Obviously, when Wainwright reaches this mark, he does so because his stuff is elite. Doing so in 2017 would mean he’s bounced back from his sub-par 2016 season.

Carlos Martinez: Splash a Cardinals hitter with a cup of water 180 times.

The St. Louis Cardinals hit 225 home runs in 2016. How does this have anything to do with Carlos Martinez? Because he got to do this 225 times:

The Cardinals expect to have less power in the lineup next year, but homers should still be an important part of this team. Aledmys Diaz, Matt Carpenter, Stephen Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko, and Randal Grichuk all have potential to hit 20+ dingers. Dexter Fowler, Kolten Wong, Jhonny Peralta, and Yadier Molina each have a chance to hit double digits.

Getting to 180 homers would mean most of these Cardinals players reach their power potential, and the lineup would again be one of the most potent in the NL.

Mike Leake: Walk fewer than two batters per nine and maintain a ground ball rate greater than 50%.

Brendan wrote for us about how Mike Leake actually had some of his best career peripherals as a starting pitcher in 2016, despite posting a career worst ERA. He struck out batters at a higher clip than his career average, walked batters at a career low rate, and induced ground balls at a career high frequency.

The result was a career low FIP of 3.83. Leake’s ERA has generally been about half a run lower than his FIP throughout his career. This would mean he could have approached an ERA of 3.33.

Leake’s ineffectiveness in 2016 was largely due to the struggles of the defense behind him, and the 2017 St. Louis Cardinals defense should be greatly improved. If Leake keeps his peripherals up, he should put together one of the best seasons of his career.

Alex Reyes: Walk fewer than 10.0% of batters faced.

I’m in a tiny minority of those who worry that Alex Reyes will struggle in 2017. He has never walked fewer than 4.5 batters per nine, meaning he often walks a hitter once every other inning. His career low walk rate in the Minors or Majors was 11.1% in his first year of rookie ball.

Decreasing his walk rate to below 10.0% would mean that his BB/9 would come in around 4.00 or below, compared to 4.50 for his career. This would mean fewer run-scoring opportunities for the opponents he faces, and is likely an important piece for him to contend for the Rookie of the Year award. Of course, this curve will help, too:

Lance Lynn: Make at least 25 starts and average between five and six innings per start.

With Lance Lynn making a return from Tommy John surgery, it is highly likely that the St. Louis Cardinals will be cautious with his workload. This means he will likely be the recipient of extra rest between starts and subjected to pitch-count limitations. However, reaching these goals would mean that Lynn provides quality innings throughout the season while maintaining his health and effectiveness.

Michael Wacha: Take a relief and spot-starter role in stride.

Over the last couple of years, Michael Wacha has struggled with shoulder injuries. Additionally, he was largely ineffective when healthy last year. The emergence of Alex Reyes likely pushes Wacha to a bullpen role to start the season.

As the St. Louis Cardinals know all too well, however, every team needs more than five capable starters. Most of the rotation has injury or longevity concerns, and it will be important for the team to have Wacha as a reliable option to fill in when Lynn, Reyes, or others need a little extra rest.

Luke Weaver: Flourish as the Memphis Redbirds ace.

While this goal is sort of uninspiring on its face, the reality is that Luke Weaver will be starting the season with the AAA club in Memphis. If everything on the MLB level goes as planned, he won’t be seeing MLB action until September call-ups.

That said, a season in Memphis presents an opportunity for the young starter. He has yet to even pitch 40 innings at the AAA level. Additionally, he struggled  in his first taste of MLB action last year. 2017 should provide Weaver the opportunity to continue to grow and develop into an MLB starter.

New Year Resolutions for the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen.

Seung-Hwan Oh: Record 40 saves.

Last year, Oh appeared in 76 games overall and took over as the closer for the second half of the season. He posted a 1.92 ERA while recording 19 saves. With a firm grasp on the closer role for 2017, Oh has a chance to crack 40 saves in a contract year, a milestone which the closer for the St. Louis Cardinals has reached three times since 2012 (Jason Motte once and Trevor Rosenthal twice).

Trevor Rosenthal: Re-establish himself as a dominant reliever.

The St. Louis Cardinals have stated that they are going to allow Trevor Rosenthal to compete to become a starting pitcher. However, I still think he is best served in a relief role. After returning from injury in September, Rosenthal looked more like his dominant self. While the sample size is extremely small, Rosenthal threw 11.1% more strikes and posted a 1.29 ERA over seven September/October innings.

Brett Cecil: Continue his relief dominance while transitioning to a new league.

Brett Cecil has quietly been one of the best relievers in baseball since his move to the bullpen in 2013. He has posted an ERA and FIP below 3.00 in three of his four seasons in relief and an xFIP below 3.00 each year. He has a chance to be a dominant complement to Rosenthal and Oh at the back end of the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen.

Kevin Siegrist: Continue improving his approach in attacking left-handed hitters.

Siegrist has suffered from reverse splits throughout his career, allowing lefties to hit better than righties off him. This problem was most severe in 2014, when lefties hit .300/.417/.410 off him.

Since then, he has improved against LHB each year, limiting them to a .259 average in 2015 and a .217 average in 2016. If he can get LHB down to his .178/.260/.334 line he holds against righties, Siegrist will be one of the top bullpen arms in the NL.

Tyler Lyons: Excel in his role as the LOOGY.

Currently, the St. Louis Cardinals are without a pitcher they can use against only one or two left handed batters in big situations. However, Lyons splits indicate he could be the guy to fill the role. He held lefties to a .152/.214/.250 line in 2016. His slider is his best offering, and LHB hit a miniscule .118 average and .206 SLG against the pitch last year.

Matt Bowman: Induce ground balls on 65.0% of balls in play.

With Seth Maness off the squad for next year, the St. Louis Cardinals turn to Bowman as their double play specialist. Last year, he got hitters to put the ball on the ground 61.7% of the time, greater than Maness’ 59.4% career average but lower than his 68.4% career high.

Jonathan Broxton: Convert 85.0% of Hold opportunities.

A hold for a reliever is similar to a save, with the exception being that the pitcher does not finish the game. Manager Mike Matheny showed in 2016 that he is going to continue to rely on Broxton in middle relief, but if Broxton can convert Holds at this rate, that may not be such a bad thing.

New Year Resolutions for the St. Louis Cardinals infield.

Yadier Molina: Improve defensively to regain status as an elite defensive catcher.

I covered this here a few weeks ago, so I’ll just summarize now: Yadi’s defense has fallen for four straight seasons, and a further drop might actually mean he would be below average defensively. Yadi’s defense, along with his command of the pitching staff, is his most valuable asset, so improvement here would go a long way toward improving the St. Louis Cardinals in 2017.

Carson Kelly: Continue to improve at the plate in AAA.

Carson Kelly has been getting a quite a bit of praise lately. He is one of the St. Louis Cardinals top prospects for 2017. He has already won a Minor League Gold Glove, back in 2015.  Additionally, the bat started to come around in his age-21 season, as he posted a .289/.343/.395 line between AA and AAA last year. Look for him to start developing his power next season.

Eric Fryer: Be a good enough backup to Molina to hold Kelly back in AAA.

When the St. Louis Cardinals re-signed Eric Fryer a few weeks ago, it became clear the plan was to use him as Molina’s primary backup. Importantly, this will allow Kelly to continue developing in AAA where he will play every day. For Fryer to be a success, he doesn’t need to have a breakout campaign; he simply has to play serviceably enough.

Matt Carpenter: Produce 100 RBI for the first time in his career.

For his career, Matt Carpenter is a .295 hitter when he hits first in the batting order. When he hits anywhere else, he’s a .255 hitter. The pattern held true again in 2016, when Carpenter hit .276/.386/.527 from the leadoff spot compared to only a .217 average from anywhere else.

With the addition of Dexter Fowler to the St. Louis Cardinals, the team’s primary leadoff man from the last few years will be moved to a more traditional run-producing spot in the lineup. If the team hopes to again be one of the top offenses in the National League, they will need Carpenter to produce from the heart of the order.

Kolten Wong: Go the entire season without being benched for three consecutive games.

Kolten Wong’s well-documented struggles have plagued his first few MLB seasons. Since debuting in 2013, he has spent parts of two seasons continuing to bounce between St. Louis and Memphis. This year, the club even experimented with using him as a center fielder in AAA, an indication that management might think his potential to be the everyday second baseman is gone.

Yet, GM John Mozeliak has stood by his belief in Kolten Wong. He has gone on record saying that Kolten Wong has the talent to be a “Gold Glove-caliber second baseman.” His career track record in the Minors, where he has hit for a .308 average and .833 OPS, suggest the bat has the potential to be a weapon as well.

Hopefully, the St. Louis Cardinals commit to Wong manning second base as the everyday starter. Surely he will continue to be spelled by Jedd Gyorko at times, but if he can avoid starting three straight games on the bench, that will mean he is playing an important role in 2017.

Jhonny Peralta: Play average defense as the 2017 starting third baseman.

While a thumb injury may have been to blame for Peralta’s lackluster 2016 season, it does not really explain his terrible defense at third. In over 570 innings at the positions, Peralta was worth a woeful -8.8 UZR. However, there is reason to hope that he could improve enough defensive to be considered average for the position.

In over 1,700 innings at third in 2009 and 2010, he posted a combined -2.1 UZR, which is just slightly below average. In 2010, he was 2 defensive runs saved above average. With a full offseason to prepare, Peralta should be able to make significant strides defensively, which would be a significant upgrade to the 2017 defense.

Aledmys Diaz: Cement his spot as the Cardinals shortstop for years to come.

Diaz breakout campaign likely has most fans thinking that he has already assured his position at short for the foreseeable future. However, the fact that the St. Louis Cardinals were at least interested in Andrelton Simmons this offseason leaves doubt. This signals that the front office is not confident enough in his defensive ability to rule out moving him to either second or third base in the future.

There are reasons for these doubts. For one, the young shortstop had a -8.4 UZR. However, as I’ve noted previously, his fielding percentage improved dramatically over the course of 2016 as he adjusted to the speed of the Major League game. If he can continue to make improvements defensively this offseason going into 2017, it will be near impossible to move him anywhere else.

Jedd Gyorko: Maintain a 20.0%+ HR/FB rate.

Jedd Gyorko led the 2016 power surge in St. Louis, leading the team with 30 homers. This was supported by a 24.4% HR/FB rate, the highest rate of his career by far.

While this may be a bit of an outlier year, it is clear that Gyorko made adjustments to become a more pull-oriented fly ball hitter: he posted a career high FB% of 40.3 and Pull% of 45.2%. If he can continue to refine this batted ball profile, he should remain one of the Cardinals best power threats.

Greg Garcia: Post a walk rate in excess of 13.5%.

Garcia has been a capable defender filling in a second, third and short, and has hit for decent average in the MLB to date. Yet, his walk rates are elite: his 14.8% walk percentage ranked 10^th among all players with 250+ plate appearances in 2016. His career mark between the Minors and Majors is 13.5%, so look for him to continue that development at the plate.

Matt Adams: Hit over .300 with 5 home runs as a pinch hitter.

With Matt Carpenter set to take over at first base next season, Matt Adams will again be relegated to bench duties. However, he has been a great weapon in this role for St. Louis throughout his career. Over 105 plate appearances as a pinch hitter, Adams has hit for a .330 average and slugged 7 home runs.

Last year was more of the same, as he posted a .324 average and hit 3 dingers in 38 pinch hit attempts. With Brandon Moss likely gone, Adams’ left-handed bat will be even more important off the bench in 2017.

New Year Resolutions for the St. Louis Cardinals outfield.

Randal Grichuk: Mash 30+ home runs to lead the team.

Randal Grichuk’s most intriguing attribute has to be his power. While this ability comes with a high propensity to strike out and a low tendency to walk, it also makes Grichuk very valuable at the plate.

Last season, Grichuk blasted 24 homers for the St. Louis Cardinals. Of course, Grichuk also spent 23 games in AAA where he knocked another 6 out of the park, putting him at 30 in 155 total games. While Grichuk needs to improve his consistency, he has already proven he has 30+ home run power. If he can do so again next year, but hit them all for the MLB club, he could be one of the team’s most dangerous hitters.

Dexter Fowler: Bring back #HighSocksSunday.

“High Socks Sunday” was started in 2012 by Daniel Descalso and promoted by Jon Jay. With Descalso leaving for Colorado after 2014 and Jay being moved to San Diego after 2015, the fun tradition seemed to disappear.

During the High Socks Sunday tenure, which I define as 2012 through 2015, the St. Louis Cardinals had a .579 winning percentage. Last year, without the tradition, the Cardinals had only a .541 winning percentage.

Luckily for the Cardinals, they now have a player who loves wearing his socks high, no matter the day (we’ll forgive him for the uniform since he struck out in this at-bat). That player is Dexter Fowler, and he is on a mission to Make the Clubhouse Fun Again. Well, he should start by going around on Sunday afternoons and replacing his teammates full length pants with ones that stop around the knee.

Stephen Piscotty: Lead the Cardinals in RBI.

Piscotty will slot in as the St. Louis Cardinals cleanup hitter for 2017. With OBP monsters Fowler, Diaz, and Carpenter ahead of him, Piscotty will get a ton of opportunities to bat with runners on base, and often in scoring position.

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Fortunately for the Cardinals, Piscotty’s profile fits well in the cleanup spot. With none on, he has only hit .258 in his career. With men on, his average jumps to .314. Further, with RISP, his career average registers way up at .372. Slotting in behind these three hitters should bring out the best we have seen from Piscotty and give him the chance to emerge as one of the best run producers in the National League.

Tommy Pham: Avoid the Disabled List for the entire season.

In the absence of any further acquisitions, Tommy Pham is likely to serve as the St. Louis Cardinals fourth outfielder next season. His last few years at the MLB and Minor League levels show that he is worthy of that role when healthy. Of course, he has missed parts of almost every season since 2010. The St. Louis Cardinals are making a bet on his talent, counting on him to stay healthy and produce in 2017.

Next: 2016 Roller Coaster

Ultimately, the St. Louis Cardinals will need to see improvement across the board if they want to contend for the division and World Series in 2017. If most of these players can hold up to these New Year Resolutions, the team will be in good shape come next October.