The Cardinals can officially cross this team off Nolan Arenado's trade destinations

The baseball world took little time to heat back up after Christmas, as the Los Angeles Dodgers just signed outfielder Teoscar Hernandez to a three-year, $66 million deal. And yes, I do believe this has an impact on the St. Louis Cardinals.

There were real questions regarding whether or not the Dodgers would bring back Hernandez after the incredible year he had with them in 2024. Hernandez latched on with Los Angeles on a one-year deal to hopefully secure a long-term deal this winter, and he did everything in his power to up his value. Hernandez hit a career-high 33 home runs with the Dodgers, driving in 99 runs, scoring 84, and posting a 137 OPS+ as he helped lead them to a World Series title.

Now that the Dodgers have brought back Hernandez, their projected Opening Day payroll is set to be $358 million. You read that right. That's over $200 million more than what the Cardinals are set to spend on their Opening Day roster in 2025, and that's before they offload the Nolan Arenado contract and any other salary they wish to shed from their books!

Speaking of Arenado's salary, we all know that the Dodgers have been the long-rumored destination that the Cardinals' third baseman would love to end up with. He's from Southern California, he wants to win, and the Dodgers were the other team on his wishlist back when he was with the Colorado Rockies. The flirting has been there for years from the Dodgers' side, and lately, it's felt like Arenado has hinted at it as well.

Dodgers' general manager Brandon Gomes all but shut down those rumors in early December when he strongly committed to Max Muncy as their Opening Day third baseman in early December, so why on earth am I implying that this signing has any impact on Arenado's trade market if the Dodgers' ruled it out themselves.

It's not a matter of the Dodgers ending their candidacy for Arenado with this move, it's that it should end any hope from Arenado's camp that a deal could be made that sends him to the reigning World Series Champions.

Teoscar Hernandez's signing with the Dodgers should end any hope Nolan Arenado had of ending up with them

Let's put ourselves in Arenado's shoes for a moment. Again, we don't know with 100% certainty what Arenado is thinking, and it is likely that Arenado himself is continuing to weigh the options in front of him and may give a different answer to you each day as to what he'd prefer.

But, I think it is safe to say that if the Cardinals and Dodgers had agreed to a deal involving Arenado, he would be on a flight there immediately. I highly doubt he'd choose any other team over them, and I'm sure part of the reason he declined a trade to Houston was to see if Los Angeles would change their posture, as well as to see how the Alex Bregman market shaped other potential destinations for him.

This is the last time Arenado is going to have this much control over the next team he plays for. With how dissapointing things went in St. Louis for him compared to his expectations, I am sure he is doing his due diligence this time to ensure the spot he lands this winter gives him the best possible odds of competing for World Series titles.

If you were Arenado, you would likely do the same. You wouldn't be concerned with helping the Cardinals get a deal done as quickly as possible. That's not to say Arenado and the front office have a bad relationship, but this is a business, and Arenado taking his time with this decision is in his best interest.

If Los Angeles was the dream scenario for him, like many of us weighing options, he's likely going to hold out hope for as long as possible to see if he can go to where his heart desires. Again, I don't blame him!

Even with Gomes committing to Muncy as their third baseman, Arenado could be crossing his fingers that things change, Muncy shifts over to second base, and the Dodgers make room for him to join the club. But now that they've added another significant salary to their starting lineup that brings balance to their lineup from the right side, I think it is safe to say Los Angeles will not be making a move for Arenado this offseason.

That doesn't mean an Arenado trade is imminent. Alex Bregman will likely need to sign before this saga ends. But what this should do for the Cardinals as they look to offload Arenado is speed up that process once Bregman signs. Bregman's market was not linked to the Dodgers at all. He wasn't going to land there. So if Hernandez did not sign with Los Angeles before Bregman signed, or had Hernandez signed elsewhere, that would have kept hope alive for Arenado that the Dodgers were a possibility.

Now when Bregman does sign, his market will truly narrow to a few teams, and from there, it will just depend on if Arenado approves the deal and the Cardinals can come to an agreement with that club. Now that the Dodgers should be off Arenado's mind, I don't think it should take a ton of pondering from him to decide where he'd like to go once his final suitors emerge.

We've talked about this before, but expect teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Angels to be among the teams Arenado has to choose from. Perhaps the Padres enter the discussion, but that seems like another one of Arenado's dream spots rather than a true plan from San Diego's perspective.

Now we sit back and wait for Bregman's free agency to end, and then we will finally be close to the end of all the speculation.