Surprise player has been as valuable as two oft-mentioned Cardinals that got away

Lars Nootbaar might be the most polarizing player on the St. Louis Cardinals' roster. Some people look at his Baseball Savant page and his underlying metrics and see a budding star. Other people see a player who has been very good when healthy, but he's just been injured too much. Still, other fans see him as a bust and a player the organization needs to move on from.

I find myself in the first group more often than not. Since 2022, Nootbaar has accumulated 7.2 fWAR in 334 games. If you were to expand his fWAR to 162 games a year, something that isn't realistic for most players but still gives us an idea of his true value, Noot would be a 3.5-fWAR player each year, a figure that places him above players like Fernando Tatis Jr., Brendan Donovan, Salvador Perez, and Aaron Nola last year and with players like Oneil Cruz, Manny Machado, and Masyn Winn.

Nootbaar has yet to play more than 117 games in a season. He has only eclipsed 500 plate appearances once. However, he has been exceptionally valuable when on the field. He has a career .246/.348/.425 slash line for a 116 wRC+. This makes him 16% better than the average baseball player. That doesn't make him a star by any means, but it definitely puts him in a category of player that can become foundational for an organization.

Noot has also been a positive defender in the outfield. He grades out as average in center field according to Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating/150, and Outs Above Average. However, he has been a plus defender in both corner outfield spots regardless of the metric used. He truly is an all-around player.

Brandon Kiley, co-host of BK and Ferrario on 101 ESPN, recently posted a blind stat comparison of three players. Each of these players had similar fWAR totals from 2022-2024 that were achieved in various ways. I've included his post below.

Lars Nootbaar has been comparable to Randy Arozarena and Adolis Garcia the last three seasons

Player A is Lars Nootbaar, player B is Randy Arozarena, and player C is Adolis Garcia.

Now, most fans see Arozarena and Garcia as players who got away and as failures by John Mozeliak. Ever since Randy won ALCS MVP in 2021, Cardinal fans have been mocking Mo and calling out the front office for making such a miserable trade. Those same fans will then turn around and call Lars Nootbaar a waste of a roster space for whatever reason.

As Kiley put it himself, Nootbaar is seen as a disappointment while letting Randy and Garcia go are considered failures by the front office.

That's simply not fair. In fewer games, Lars Nootbaar has been almost as valuable as both Randy Arozarena and Adolis Garcia. Shouldn't he be viewed in the same light as these two outfielders?

I'm not here to say that Lars Nootbaar is the next star and cornerstone of the franchise. Rather, I'm asking that fans see Nootbaar in a different light. Yes, he's injury-prone, and yes, he needs to stay healthy. But if he can stay on the field and play even 130 games next year, he has the potential to be one of the best all-around players on the roster.

If Lars Nootbaar can play a full slate of games next year and surpass 600 plate appearances, he may be the team's most valuable player in 2025. Also, let's all be sure to appreciate the players we do have and not regret those who got away.