The Lars Nootbaar hype train may be grinding to a halt among Cardinals fans

For about a year and a half, Lars Nootbaar to St. Louis Cardinals fans has been the equivalent of Dylan Carlson to John Mozeliak: You can pry him from their cold dead hands. But the Cardinal-red rose that has enveloped Lars Nootbaar since the baseball world fell in love with him during the 2023 World Baseball Classic may finally be starting to wilt.

Fans' patience with Nootbaar has been saintly because of his international fame and likable personality, not to mention the underlying promise he showed in 2022 despite his lackluster surface numbers. Nootbaar's Statcast metrics after that season displayed several positive traits, such as a high barrel percentage and a high exit velocity, which gave fans high hopes for his future.

Words like "untouchable" were often dished out when fans discussed Nootbaar, but I mused after the 2022 season that it would be a good idea for the Cardinals to dangle Nootbaar in trade talks given the Cardinals' outfield depth and the fact that the Cardinals likely would have received a large haul for a promising player who could be a fan favorite in a city where baseball is less entrenched in its culture.

I understood fans' adoration of Nootbaar, and I enjoyed his time in the sun during the World Baseball Classic as much as any other fan did, but I was hungry for production with the Cardinals. In 2023, he hit a respectable .261 with a 114 OPS+, but for the second season in a row, he had issues remaining healthy, a trend that has continued into 2024.

When he has been on the field this season, Nootbaar has a .228 average and an OPS+ of 95, and it appears that some Cardinals fans are starting to wake up to the idea that Nootbaar is nothing more than a middling outfielder.

In terms of promising Statcast numbers and frequent injuries, Nootbaar actually resembles former Cardinals outfielder Tyler O'Neill, whom many fans could not wait to get out of town. But Nootbaar's affable personality contrasts with O'Neill's perceived lack of effort, so while one player failed to find much fanfare, the other has seen St. Louis swoon before him.

Nootbaar's ability to burrow his way into people's hearts still captivates many, but I want someone who provides wins on the field and can help the Cardinals make a deep postseason run. Having a worldwide phenomenon who excites fans and teammates with his outgoing personality is great, but at this point, we can't kid ourselves into thinking that Nootbaar is a franchise savior.

There are still a large number of fans who remain optimistic about Nootbaar, but as 2024 draws to a close, there will be more space on the Nootbaar fan bus.