Sorry Reds fans, Cardinals JJ Wetherholt is still the Rookie of the Year

For about four months of the Major League Baseball season, St. Louis Cardinals rookie JJ Wetherholt was a shoo-in to win the National League Rookie of the Year award. However, a recent offensive downturn for Wetherholt has put his appointment in jeopardy. Has he lost his grasp on the Rookie of the Year Award?

JJ Wetherholt has been in a slump over the last two months. After posting a .856 OPS in April and March and a .747 OPS in June, Wetherholt has failed to surpass .675 in the OPS column since the start of July. His .600 OPS in the month of August has really bit a chunk out of his numbers on the year.

While Wetherholt has been slumping, Cincinnati Reds infielder Sal Stewart has been on a tear. Stewart has posted an OPS of .816 and .804 in the months of July and August, respectively. He's also hit 11 of his 27 home runs in those two months alone.

On the season, Stewart outpaces Wetherholt pretty comfortably in most offensive categories.

From a traditional statistics perspective, the award should probably be Sal Stewart's. He leads in five of the eight major offensive statistics, and in some cases, his lead is quite large.

Luckily for JJ Wetherholt, the award is granted based on performance in all aspects of the game.

A closer look at the metrics will reveal that JJ Wetherholt is still the clear National League Rookie of the Year frontrunner.

C. Trent Rosencrans, the Reds' beat writer for The Athletic, took a good look at the competition between JJ Wetherholt and Sal Stewart. Both managers, obviously, believe their respective rookie should receive the award.

"Obviously I am going to be very biased, as I should be,” Reds' manager Terry Francona said. "There’s something to be said for a guy that’s got (12) stolen bases, 26 home runs and 91 RBIs."

“He’s the best second baseman in the league,” quipped Cardinals' manager Oli Marmol in response. “He makes the routine plays and the ones that aren’t routine. He’s always in the right spot. He positions himself well, and he doesn’t take a pitch off. So that is being a competitor when you don’t give in any of those areas.”

JJ Wetherholt is head and shoulders above Sal Stewart in bWAR (4.8 for Wetherholt versus 2.1 for Stewart) and fWAR (4.4 for Wetherholt versus 2.1 for Stewart). JJ' defense is doing most of the heavy lifting for him in these statistics, but a closer look at their offensive profiles will reveal that Wetherholt has been a victim of bad luck while Stewart has benefited from a hitter-friendly home field.

Great American Ballpark, a place where Stewart calls home, is notoriously known as a hitter-friendly park. According to Baseball Savant's Park Factor, GABP is a 4.1% more hitter-friendly park than Busch Stadium.

If Sal Stewart played all of his games at Busch Stadium, he would have only 16 home runs. If all of his games were played at Great American Ballpark, he would have a whopping 32 long balls.

Conversely, If all of JJ Wetherholt's games were played at Busch Stadium, he would have 14 home runs, just two shy of Stewart. If he played all of his games at GABP, he would have 19 home runs. From a pure power perspective, it's pretty obvious how much Stewart has benefited from his home stadium.

JJ Wetherholt's expected wOBA (xwOBA) is .347. Stewart's xwOBA? Just .348.

Thomas Nestico did some excellent research into run values for players, taking a look at 10 National League rookies and how good they've been at various aspects of the game. You'll see the metrics below.

JJ Wetherholt has been the most complete rookie in the National League, posting a +6 batting run value, a +22 fielding run value, and a +4 running run value. Only Cole Carigg, Carson Benge, and Pedro Ramirez have also been positive in all three categories, though none of those three sniff Wetherholt's production.

Meanwhile, Sal Stewart is only positive in batting. His bat has been one of the best among National League rookies, but his lack of defensive value and essentially neutral baserunning abilities don't help his overall profile.

Now, if JJ Wetherholt continues this offensive skid and Sal Stewart hits at least 30 home runs and surpasses 100 RBIs, it'll be tough to maintain this argument. If Wetherholt can return to form and if Sal Stewart plateaus even a little bit, the discussion is much different over the final month and a half of the season.

If you're looking at just rate and traditional statistics, Sal Stewart of the Cincinnati Reds is probably the best candidate for National League Rookie of the Year. If you want to take a holistic approach to the award, JJ Wetherholt is still the best option.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow