Ranking the 10 worst contracts in the NL Central: How do the Cardinals fare?

The worst-kept secret in St. Louis Cardinals land is the club's desire to trade star third baseman Nolan Arenado. Arenado has been a good and loyal soldier for the Cardinals, but age and injuries have caught up with him and turned his mega-deal into something of an albatross for the organization.

When discussing Arenado and his trade market, the issue is money, but in a somewhat complex way. With two years now remaining, Arenado is technically only owed $31 million ($16 million in cash in 2026, $15 million in 2027); however, his deal will cost $25.55 million per year against the luxury tax thanks to his average annual value calculation.

That number is actually already reduced from its original mark of $32.5 million, thanks to the $51 million the Colorado Rockies paid when they shipped him to St. Louis. In short, baseball contracts are complicated.

That leads to a broader question. When compared to the NL Central rivals, how many bad deals do the Cardinals actually have? And what constitutes a bad contract to begin with? There is some nuance here; for example, you'll see Cincinnati Reds third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes on this list despite the fact that his AAV is under $10 million. That's due to the length of his deal, his struggles to approach competency with the bat, and some injury concerns.

In order to look at this clearly, we have to consider positional value (i.e., a shortstop with a league-average bat is more valuable than a first baseman who is just an average hitter), length of the deal, performance, and how well the contract will age.

One final caveat, just because a contract will end badly doesn't mean it wasn't worth signing. A prime example of this is the eight-year, $218 million deal Max Fried signed with the New York Yankees this past offseason. They'll regret that contract in 2032 when Fried is a 38-year-old with a $27.25 million hit against the luxury tax, but without him in 2025, they likely would've missed the playoffs.

So with that said, sometimes a contract that ends poorly is necessary and good for a number of years. It can be the cost of doing business. With that preamble out of the way, here are the 10 worst contracts in the NL Central and a breakdown of how the Cardinals stack up.

1. Starting pitcher Miles Mikolas - St. Louis Cardinals - three years, $55.75 million ($18.6 million AAV)

With the smallest contract on this list, the fact that Miles Mikolas comes in first is a testament to how poorly he's pitched since signing this pact ahead of the 2023 season. With a 4.96 ERA across 524.1 innings the past three seasons, it's safe to say that the Cardinals didn't get their money's worth. Fortunately, only days remain on the deal, and Mikolas will likely be pitching elsewhere (or perhaps nowhere) in 2026.

2. Third baseman Nolan Arenado - St. Louis Cardinals - eight years, $260 million ($32.5 million AAV)

Here's the one everyone expected. Nolan Arenado's deal is the only one on the list to exceed $200 million in total value. There were risks when St. Louis took on this contract, chief among them how his bat would perform outside of the thin air of Colorado, but the start was good. Unfortunately, chronic back issues combined with other maladies would sap his power in recent years, but up until 2025, he was still a solid player thanks to sterling defense and solid contact skills. With this season winding down to a close, it looks as though even that is behind him now, as Father Time takes hold.

3. Outfielder Christian Yelich - Milwaukee Brewers - seven years, $188.5 million ($26.9 million AAV)

In the two years prior to this deal, Christian Yelich was one of the best players in baseball, taking home the 2018 NL MVP and finishing second in the voting the following year. A gold glove defender with 40-homer juice and the speed to steal 30 bags, Yelich had it all. However, since signing the deal, injuries have hampered him, and he has never again reached that rarified air after getting paid. Now primarily a DH, Yelich is a one-dimensional player who, while still a good hitter, is being paid like a great one.

4. Shortstop Dansby Swanson - Chicago Cubs - seven years, $177 million ($25.3 million AAV)

When the Chicago Cubs signed Dansby Swanson in December of 2022, he was arguably the best defensive shortstop in the game, who seemed to be blossoming with the bat. His 117 wRC+ in 2022 was the first time, save for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, that Swanson had played a full season while posting a wRC+ over 100. Since joining the Cubs, however, he's regressed to merely an average hitter, and a career-low .299 OBP in 2025 doesn't bode well for his future.

Swanson's deal runs through 2029, and now on the wrong side of 30, it is only a matter of time before his defense declines, which will sap most of his value.

5. Starting pitcher Sonny Gray - St. Louis Cardinals - three years, $75 million ($25 million AAV)

In the grand scheme of things, Sonny Gray's contract isn't that bad. Signed ahead of the 2024 season, a three-year deal isn't a terribly long commitment for a pitcher, but at $25 million a year, Gray was brought in to be an ace. Instead, he's simply been a quality starter, and one who may be on the move this offseason due to his openness to waiving his no-trade clause.

6. Starting Pitcher Jameson Taillon - Chicago Cubs - four years, $68 million ($17 million AAV)

Given the going rate for starting pitchers, $17 million a year for a serviceable arm like Taillon doesn't seem awful. However, his first season with the Cubs was pretty bad, with him posting a 4.84 ERA in 2023. A 3.27 mark in 2024 and 3.78 ERA in 2024 and 2025, respectively, make it seem like he's rebounded, but his declining strikeout rate and ballooning home run rate show he's actually been worse than his results might indicate. With one more year on his deal, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him become a liability for the Cubs in 2026.

7. Outfielder Bryan Reynolds - Pittsburgh Pirates - eight years, $106.75 million ($13.34 million AAV)

Bryan Reynolds' deal is the largest in the Pittsburgh Pirates' penny-pinching history. In buying out three arbitration years, the total value of the contract is slightly depressed, but that still doesn't make it a good contract.

Reynolds likely never hits his 2021 peak again, when he posted a 140 wRC+, which likely gave the Pirates some motivation to keep him around long term. On the other hand, he likely rebounds from his 2025 season, which has been one of the worst of his career. Still, Reynolds is a good, not great, hitter whose poor defense is only getting worse and likely won't have the bat to justify his contract in the deal's final years. The AAV is fine, but if this is going to be the most lucrative deal in your franchise's history, it should go to a much better player.

8. First baseman - Wilson Contreras - five years, $87.5 million ($17.5 million AAV)

A career 122 wRC+ hitter, it's not fair to Wilson Contreras to call this a bad contract necessarily, just one that doesn't add a ton of surplus value. As a catcher, the 33-year-old's bat played up and made him a valuable asset. Now that his days behind the plate are behind him and he's anchored to first base, what he's getting paid is a touch high for his level of production. If he suffers any sort of age-related decline, this looks much worse.

For now, this is a good player getting paid a relatively hefty sum of money at a position where it is pretty easy to find above-average offensive performers.

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes - Cincinnati Reds - eight years, $70 million ($8.75 million AAV)

As referenced above, Ke'Bryan Hayes has the lowest average annual value of any contract on the list. The issue isn't necessarily what he costs per season, but rather his failure to improve offensively and the length of the commitment.

Defensively, he might be the best third baseman in the game, but he has only one year of even average offensive production with the bat, 2023, and the last two seasons have been 36 to 40 percent worse than league average according to wRC+. If at any point between now and 2029 his glove work falls off, the Reds will be left paying nearly $9 million a year for a player whose contributions could be matched by anybody off the street.

10. Outfielder Ian Happ - Chicago Cubs - three years, $61 million ($20.33 million AAV)

Ian Happ is a fine player, but at a hair over $20 million a year, you might want a little more. All said and done, this is about market value; however, at 31 and with two years remaining, any sort of decline from Happ would make this look worse than the slight overpay it is today.

The Cardinals have four of the 10 worst contracts; it isn't as bad as it seems

Yes, of the 10 contracts on the list, St. Louis owns 40% of them. At face value, that isn't a great look. There are a couple of caveats, though. Three of the five teams in the division have some of the lowest payrolls in the league and rarely dip their toes into the free-agent market beyond signing one-year deals. That fact alone means spenders like the Cardinals and the Cubs will automatically have some higher representation on a list like this.

Secondly, of the four deals St. Louis has here, only one has been legitimately bad from start to finish: Miles Mikolas. The length of Arenado's deal guaranteed it would end poorly, and while you may have liked to have another truly elite season or two before his decline, his 2022 season was truly spectacular. That's just the cost of doing business when you bring in a superstar.

Lastly, the Gray and Contreras deals get mentioned here not because they're truly awful, but simply because they aren't great values. Both have been fine players who are paid at market rates; there's just no real surplus value that would cause them to be looked at in a more favorable light.

Based on how this list shakes out, Cardinals fans shouldn't feel too bad overall. It could always be worse; you could be the Pirates and refuse to spend money altogether.