Projecting a Riley O'Brien extension as incredible Cardinals season continues

Against all odds (or at least the projection systems), the St. Louis Cardinals are legitimately good in 2026. They've defied their rebuilding status, riding a youth movement to a 27-19 record that is keeping pace with the leaders of the best division in baseball.

Of course, it takes a collective to produce these kinds of surprising results. Jordan Walker is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season. Ditto for JJ Wetherholt in regard to the Rookie of the Year Award. Michael McGreevy has exploded into an ace. Even Dustin May has looked better as of late, rattling off six quality starts in his past seven outings.

Within that context, Riley O'Brien's breakout has flown a little under the radar. But make no mistake about it: He's as essential to the Redbirds' success as anyone. He's completely locked down the ninth inning this season, pitching to a 2.45 ERA while recording 13 saves, which ranks third league-wide.

He's been a popular trade candidate since the moment the Cardinals began their rebuild, but those opinions are starting to shift. Instead, it's time for the team to lock in a little cost certainty with their closer.

A Riley O'Brien extension isn't necessary, but it would behoove the Cardinals to pull it off

First things first: O'Brien is a 31-year-old reliever in his second year of pre-arbitration. Even without an extension, the Cardinals have control of him until 2030, when he'll be 35.

So, why would they even want to discuss an extension now? For the same reason that a ton of other teams have been extending their (younger) pre-arb players this year: cost certainty. Ahead of a potential lockout that could forever change the economics of the sport, it helps to know that you've got a quality player under a contract with specific terms.

There isn't a ton of precedent for a deal like this with a reliever, but there is one that immediately jumps to mind: Emmanuel Clase's extension with the Cleveland Guardians in 2022. Though his legacy is now tainted by a gambling scandal, Clase was one of the brightest closers in the sport after the 2021 season, having racked up 24 saves and a 1.29 ERA.

He was a good deal younger than O'Brien is now, but his five-year, $20 million extension only covered his arbitration years. The Guardians did attach two team options (worth $10 million apiece) that could buy out his first two free agency years, but the purpose of the deal was simple: avoid arbitration with a budding star in the bullpen.

Given his advanced age, a contract of a similar structure and length would make a lot of sense for O'Brien and the Cardinals. His free agency years in his late 30s aren't nearly as valuable as Clase's would have been, but a cheap closer is a valuable asset to have.

As one of the biggest developmental wins the organization has had in recent years, it'd be a surefire sign of their intention to compete right away if the Cardinals can strike a deal with O'Brien.

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