Diving into the Cardinals' better-than-expected results so far

The Cardinals are surprising a lot of people right now. 

At the quarter point of the season, we can make a few observations. We can also go crazy thinking things are real when they are not. Do we really think that Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Fernando Tatis, Jr. will combine for eight home runs at the end of the year? That is the pace they are on now. 

Here are just a bunch of random thoughts, questions, and facts about what we are seeing this season so far about this Cardinals team. 

Cliff's notes on the Cardinals hot start

Perception/reality - Watching the games, I keep hearing how the Cardinals are great at the little things. Moving runners over, taking walks, not making mistakes on the bases. The team ranks fifth in sacrifice bunts and second in sacrifice flies. However, they still rank just below league average in walks and eleventh in caught stealing. They are just above league average on OBP. Last year, they were just below league average in OBP. I think the perception is half right, and the reality is they aren’t great, just so, so much better than we were last year. 

WAR - As of 5/14 the team had two of the top eight players in this category: Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt. 

No one has more saves than Riley O'Brien. 

Defense - How is that defense? We can see with our eyes that it is better. Walker is playing with more confidence. His defensive runs saved have gone from last year’s minus eleven to this year’s plus five. The team this year is fifth in outs above average and third in defensive runs saved. 

An unusual stat shows the Cardinals tied for the lead in hit-by-pitch, despite not having Willson Contreras.

Cardinals History

On May 14, 1947, the Cardinals released Creepy Crespi. For a team that had ‘The Man’, Ducky, Silent George, The Wizard, The Machine, he was just Creepy.

On May 16, 1900, exactly 126 years ago today, the Cardinals hosted the New York Giants at Robison Field in front of a meager crowd of just 1,700 people. Last night at Busch Stadium III, there were almost that many vendors. Estimates show that last night there were almost that many fans shirtless.  

More Cardinals notes

Top hitters in the league  - Everyone has their own definition of what makes a great hitter. I think it is someone who checks all the boxes. Not just home runs or RBIs. If you take the stats for every player in both leagues and look for stats over .240 BA, seven home runs, four stolen bases, 19 RBI, and over 29 runs, you will find six players that make this list. Aaron Judge (of course), the amazing comeback player of the year, Mike Trout, Elly De La Cruz, and Oneil Cruz. Those results aligned closely with expectations. The other two are Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt. 

For all the talk in the offseason about trying to get more strikeouts and fewer pitches to contact, the team ranks dead last in strikeouts per nine innings (K/9). We still have a pitching staff that gets outs with ground balls, ranking fifth in that category. The team ranks fifth from the bottom in throwing strikes and fifth from the top in balls. Not a stellar combination. 

The Cardinals are 6-1 in extra-inning games. That is the most wins in MLB.

FanGraphs ranks HardHit% (percentage of batted balls with an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour or higher). The Cardinals’ percentage is 44.3, and that ranks number one. So, they are not getting swings and misses. They are getting swings and hitting it hard.

Dustin May has as many quality starts as Paul Skenes. Michael McGreevy has one more than Skenes. 

Rookie WAR - Looking at WAR for all rookies, Kevin McGonigle and JJ Wetherholt are tied for first at 2.3. The next player on the list is Nathan Church at 1.2.

JoJo Romero ranks second in holds. 

Baseball Reference shows the Cardinals rank number one in Extra Base Taken percentage (XBT%). This has been one of my major complaints over the last few years. The Cardinals, perhaps because of the many older and slower players, were very stationary and just weren’t fun to watch. Now, they turn that single into a double and go from first to third a lot more. 

The Cardinals rank second in double plays turned. With a pitching staff that still isn’t missing bats, that’s a good thing. 

Relief pitchers need a lot of improvement in one area. When they come into a game with a runner on base, 40% of the time that runner will score. They rank third-worst in that category. 

The Cardinals rank second in wins against teams with a record over .500. They rank third in winning one-run games.

Who thought that Alec Burleson would be the team’s best baserunner? You’re right, he only has two stolen bases. However, Burleson ranks ninth in Extra Base Taken percentage (XBT%). That is better than Oneil Cruz and Chandler Simpson.

B/R shows a troubling stat: Cheap Wins. Those are starts with < 6 IP or over three earned runs or wins in non-quality starts. The Cardinals rank first in this category. This can only be sustainable with a stronger bullpen. That the team is relying so heavily on the bullpen to secure these “Cheap Wins” makes that 40% inherited runner score rate an absolute ticking time bomb for the second half of the season.

Who saw this coming? Last year’s Cardinals team ranked 29th in home runs. Only the Pirates hit fewer. This year, the team ranks 14th. 

Sometimes numbers just don’t make any sense. The Cardinals’ exit velocity off the bat this year is down from 89.5 to 89.1. The hard-hit% is down. But the slug has gone up so much that the increase is the seventh highest over last year. 

At the time I am writing this, the Cardinals have 25 wins and 18 losses. With 119 games left to play, if they end up just going 50/50 the rest of the way, the Cardinals will end the season with a record of 84 or 85 wins. Playoffs anyone?

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