The Cardinals should play it safe in center field for 2025

Baseball fans have long been tantalized by the allure of a player's potential. One only needs to look at the nearly unparalleled excitement among St. Louis Cardinals supporters for the debut of mega-prospect Jordan Walker in 2023 to understand how much an unknown commodity can captivate a fanbase. Although Victor Scott has not drummed up anywhere near the excitement that Walker did, most Cardinals fans appear to be enamored enough with the speedster to plug him in to the team's 2025 lineup in lieu of fellow center fielder Michael Siani.

Scott is an exciting player. He's tied for the third-fastest sprint speed in the league, at 30 feet per second, and has the potential to wreak havoc on the bases. But even though his fleet feet can flip a game on its head, he isn't the optimal choice to start in center field for the Cardinals in 2025.

Scott was ranked 83rd on Baseball America's top prospects list entering 2024, and that pedigree is part of what intrigues fans and provides hope that he can be a difference-maker for future Cardinals rosters. But while Scott's tools are tempting to try and unlock, Siani, his main competitor for the job, gives the team more certainty in the present and, perhaps, even for the future.

Siani has dazzled in the field with electrifying plays, and Statcast rates him as one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. Scott is a strong defender as well, but he ranks as only three outs above average in center field, compared with Siani's 14. Siani also gets better jumps on fly balls: He rates as 3.1 feet above average in that stat, while Scott is at 1.9.

At the plate, both Siani and Scott have shown marked improvement from the beginning of the season. From the season's start until June 1, Siani was hitting a meager .206. But since then, Siani has hit .280, although his lack of power has led to an unremarkable .661 OPS. Scott struggled even more at the season's outset, hitting .085 in 59 at-bats through April 19, when he was demoted. Upon his return to the parent club on Aug. 5, Scott has hit a more respectable .225 and owns a .637 OPS. Neither of these stat lines jump off the page, but Siani has displayed a superior bat and glove to Scott this season.

The Cardinals are still working to maximize Scott's abilities, as according to John Denton of MLB.com, Scott has been working with coaches Willie McGee and Pop Warner to hone his defense and baserunning skills. Despite his blazing speed, Scott has appeared hesitant to run at times, attempting only five steals this season (and succeeding in all of them), so development in that area is paramount to helping him reach his potential.

How much the Cardinals can coax out of Scott on the hitting side is worth questioning. The team notoriously mishandled Walker nearly all season and seemed unable to agree on how to optimize his use. Because of the chance that the Cardinals will fumble Scott's future, along with the fact that the majority of prospects don't become stars, it may behoove the Cardinals to see what they could receive if they were to shop Scott on the trade market.

Given his prospect status, Scott undoubtedly holds more trade value than Siani even though Scott is a lesser player at this point in their careers. The Cardinals have been burned several times by top prospects failing to pan out as hoped, such as Alex Reyes and Dylan Carlson, so searching for a suitor now while Scott still has value would be a shrewd move.

The Cardinals are a risk-averse organization, often maddeningly so, but sometimes the best choice is to roll with the tried-and-true option where you know what you're going to get. Siani's offensive game might seem boring, bland and blasé, but just because the Cardinals acquired Siani via an unheralded waiver claim while Scott was dotting lists of the sport's top prospects, that's far from a guarantee that Siani will finish with an inferior career.

In baseball, it doesn't matter where you come from; what matters is what you show on the field, and Siani has done enough to earn a starting role on the 2025 Cardinals.