St. Louis Cardinals' ZiPS projections are out, and they are pretty favorable

Dan Szymborski is the developer of the ZiPS projection system that FanGraphs uses. Each year, ZiPS generates player projections in the 20th percentile (worst-case scenario), middle-of-the-road projection (most likely outcome), and 80th percentile (best-case scenario) for each player who is likely to play in the majors next year. ZiPS analyzes past performances of players, weighing recent seasons more heavily, and then estimates future performance by identifying similar players of the past and present.

Dan goes into much greater detail about each particular player, so go read his piece about the St. Louis Cardinals here; he is excellent at breaking down projections. You can find a bird's eye view of the projections in Szymborski's post on Twitter/X below. So far, the only other team in the National League Central with projections is the Pittsburgh Pirates, and Szymborski posited that they look like a 75-win team.

Keep in mind, the WAR totals listed are for each position, not each player. For example, Lars Nootbaar may be shown as the top left fielder for the team, but his WAR total projection deviates slightly from the position's WAR total. The 2.4 number shows the total value for all players who will have plate appearances in left field next year. In order to see the value for each player, you must read Dan's article that is linked above.

I took a deep dive into last season's projections earlier this year. ZiPS was more optimistic about the Cardinals' 2023 season than it is for the 2024 season. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are inching closer to an age where things usually don't get better. Also, the bullpen for next year isn't as strong as it was last year, and last year was tough to watch.

There's plenty of reason for optimism after looking at the ZiPS projections for the Cardinals next year. Outside of the bullpen, there is a glut of depth, talent, and players with high floors. Szymborski predicts the team to win between 85-90 wins this year, and that should be enough to win the division. Assuming the Cardinals are in a better position next year at the Trade Deadline than they were this year, they could make the necessary improvements to make a run in the playoffs.

Batters

There are a few takeaways that I have right away when looking at these predictions for the batters: first, the Cardinals will be a high-floor, middle-ceiling team next year. Nolan Arenado is projected to be the team's best player at 3.8 WAR; that's a significant drop from last year's projection of 5.8 WAR, but it's better than how he ended last year. The Cardinals don't have a single position projected for under 2.1 WAR. That makes for a team that won't get in its own way.

Second, ZiPS sees Masyn Winn getting significant time at shortstop and improving offensively with a projected 2.7-WAR season at the position, possibly bolstered by Tommy Edman seeing time there as well. Tommy Edman figures to be second on the team in WAR with 3.2 in center field with Dylan Carlson supplying some of that WAR total. Paul Goldschmidt is aging like a fine wine with a projected 3.1-WAR season as a thirty-six-year-old.

Lars Nootbaar is projected to continue to decline a bit, but he is still a top-five player on the team. Nolan Gorman is projected to be the team's starting second baseman while Brendan Donovan gets the majority of the designated hitter reps. Donovan will likely play multiple positions next year to spell the mainstays when he isn't the DH.

The Cardinals' position players offer quite a bit of flexibility. Tommy Edman can play three positions handily, Brendan Donovan is listed at two positions but can also play outfield, Alec Burleson is listed in the outfield and DH, but he has played first base, and Lars Nootbaar will likely see time at all three outfield spots. Richie Palacios, last season's breakout player, has played all three outfield positions and second base.