3 trades the Cardinals could make for a Marlins' starting pitcher

Derrick Goold of the Post Dispatch recently discussed in one of his chats that the Cardinals have had "talks" with the Marlins about trading for one of their starting pitchers. Miami has been a pitching hotbed in recent years, and even with the recent surgery for Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins have some surplus pitching to trade.

It is unlikely that Eury Perez and Braxton Garrett are traded, as Perez is extremely young and talented and Garrett is coming off his best year yet. However, their remaining three starting pitchers, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers could be appealing candidates to the Cardinals. Each of these players has his strengths, and each would require a different package in return for the Marlins.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported that Miami is listening to offers on Jesus Luzardo. The Marlins have been searching for offense these past few seasons. Since 2020, their pitching has carried them in the regular season and postseason, but the Marlins' offense hasn't been able to provide enough run support.

In 2023, Miami ranked 26th in runs scored, 20th in OPS+, and 23rd in total home runs. The Marlins were in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories. Conversely, they had one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball last year. Given their strong season last year and their award-winning manager, it seems likely that Miami will deal from its pitching depth at some point this year to improve its offense.

St. Louis may be finished adding to their rotation for 2024, but a trade with the Marlins is very enticing. Miami needs a shortstop and a catcher next year. They could also move Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to shortstop and trade for a center fielder.

Luckily, St. Louis has plenty of talented position players at both the major league level and in the minors. They could trade from their strength to improve an already revamped rotation.

Trevor Rogers

The lowest player on the totem pole from the Marlins is probably Trevor Rogers. He has the least amount of team control of the bunch, and his injury history should give the Cardinals pause. However, due to these facts, he would also cost St. Louis the least amount in return. Rogers has yet to pitch in more than 133 innings in his four years at the major league level, and he only pitched eighteen innings in 2023. Rogers is set to be a free agent after the 2026 season.

Trevor Rogers has a career 4.12 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.332 WHIP, and has struck out just over ten batters per nine innings; those numbers would be great for a mid-rotation starting pitcher. In 2021, he had a career year. Rogers placed second in National League Rookie of the Year and he was an All-Star. Rogers' 2.64 ERA, 2.55 FIP, and 1.150 WHIP were all stellar. He suffered a back injury in late July that kept him out for a month, but he still pitched 133 innings in just his sophomore season.

However, He had a rough 2022 season in which he pitched only 107 innings with a 5.47 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and he allowed 9.8 hits per nine innings. His K rate fell 6.3% between 2021 and 2022. 2023 was even more challenging for the left-handed pitcher. He faced a variety of injuries including a bicep strain and a lat strain. These two injuries forced him to pitch only eighteen innings last year in the majors. He gave up eight runs and struck out nineteen batters.

Given Rogers' ceiling, he still has some decent trade value. However, his extensive injury history should give the Cardinals pause. Conversely, this will also lower his price slightly. He is clearly a buy-low candidate with a high ceiling. Baseball-Reference projects him to pitch eighty innings next year with a 4.28 ERA, 9.3 strikeout-per-nine ratio, and a 1.313 WHIP.

St. Louis could probably snag Trevor Rogers for Dylan Carlson and a low-end pitching prospect. Carlson's injury history is similar to Rogers' and they will both reach free agency in 2027. The pitching prospect is a bit of a filler for the trade to entice the Marlins even more. Carlson can play center for the Marlins, thus allowing them to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to his initial position of shortstop.

Miami receives: OF Dylan Carlson and RHP Edwin Nunez

St. Louis Receives: LHP Trevor Rogers

Edward Cabrera

Of the three trade candidates, Edward Cabrera is the riskiest choice. He has five years of control remaining, he has a highly-rated changeup, and he strikes batters out at a well above-average clip. Cabrera has two downsides: command and injuries. Last year, Cabrera was in and out due to a shoulder injury and time spent in Triple-A Jacksonville to improve his walk rate.

Edward Cabrera has a career walk rate of 14%, nearly 6% higher than league average. Just last year Cabrera ranked in the bottom 1% of the league in walk rate -- 15.2%. Cabrera's changeup (36.3%), curveball (38%), and slider (30.6%) all have whiff rates greater than 30%. His fastball sits in the 94-96 MPH range and can hit 98 on occasion. He has some of the best pure stuff in the game.

Injuries have been the story of Cabrera's young career. He has pitched only 197.2 innings in three years, and he has not pitched greater than 100 innings in a single season. Between his walk rates and his injury history, Edward Cabrera is the definition of "high risk, high reward". It has been rumored that the Marlins will hold onto Cabrera until they are blown away by a trade.

Due to his five remaining years of team control, his ability to strike batters out at a high rate, and his high ceiling, it could take a high price to land the talented righty. Miami is in need of offensive firepower, so I could see St. Louis giving up one of Nolan Gorman, Ivan Herrera, or even Thomas Saggesse. These are some fan favorites, so it will hurt to see any one of them leave via trade. Gorman has some fears about his back injuries, so he may be a good trade piece for an oft-injured pitcher.

Miami receives: 2B/3B Nolan Gorman

St. Louis receives: RHP Edward Cabrera