St. Louis Cardinals 2024 Top 30 Prospects List: #30-21

Greetings everyone! This is part 1 of a 3-part series showcasing my personal top 30 Cardinals prospect list. I have considered several factors, such as age, level, production, projection, underlying metrics, and film to influence the order of this prospects list. I hope all of you enjoy this series and can take away something from each of the write-ups.

If you're not previously familiar with my work, I am Kareem Haq. Since 2022, I have written and created social media content focusing on the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system. You can find me at @KareemSSN on X/Twitter and @CardinalsProspects on Instagram. Side note: I recently created a Cardinals Prospects X/Twitter community, and if that is something that interests you, be sure to join here! Last February, I released the Data-Driven Top 12 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects article alongside @CardinalsReek on X/Twitter, and this will be my first time compiling a prospect since then.

Without further ado, let's get started!

30. RHP Cade Winquest (2023 level: Single-A)

Winquest is an athletic right-hander who possesses a high-spin fastball that flirts with triple digits. The Cardinals selected him in the 8th round of the 2022 draft out of UT Arlington. Winquest was listed as an OF/RHP in college, and although he never played the field, his athleticism is on display when you watch him pitch. He hits the high-90s on his fastball with ease, and in 2023, he reached a top velocity of 99.6 mph (In Statcast-tracked games). His average fastball velocity last year was 95 mph, but it increased as the season went on. It also helps that he gets nearly 7 feet of extension on the mound, making his pitches appear even faster. His 99.6 mph fastball max velocity, which I discussed earlier, had a perceived velocity of 101.7 mph for reference.

In 4 seasons for the UT Arlington Mavericks, Winquest posted a 5.77 ERA in 160 2/3 innings. Despite putting up unspectacular numbers, the Cardinals bet on his stuff to play, and in his first full season in pro ball, it certainly did. Don't let Winquest's 4.87 ERA scare you away; he was much better than that would indicate. Winquest struck out 24.2% of batters while walking 10.4% and did a respectable job managing batted balls overall.

His pitch mix includes the aforementioned high-spin heater, a mid-80s cutter, a high-70s to low-80s slurve, and a firm changeup. Although Winquest's fastball gets great velo, the shape isn't particularly great. He gets around 13 inches of induced vertical break and 5 inches of run and throws from a lower-than-average release height. Winquest has gotten up to 19.5 inches of IVB, but even if he lived in the 15-17" range with his release height and velo, the pitch would play extraordinarily well up in the zone.

While it would be ideal if he had more ride on his fastball, I'm still enamored by Winquest's ability to reach close to triple digits, especially in a starting pitcher role (currently). Of Winquest's three secondary offerings, his slurve and changeup show the most promise. His slurve was, without a doubt, his best offering performance-wise last year, with a whopping 47.6 whiff rate and 33% CSW%. The movement profile on the pitch varies a ton but averages around 80 mph with -10" of IVB and 9 inches of sweep (up to 16.4" of sweep). I think it would be a lot of fun if Winquest added a true sweeper to his pitch-mix, thrown a tick harder than his slurve.

Winquest also throws a 90 mph changeup. Even though the pitch is only 5 mph off the fastball, it has a difference of almost 6 inches of fade, which helps create a solid tunnel. The pitch induced a ton of swings and misses, with over a 30% whiff rate. It's his go-to secondary offering against lefties, but he also has a feel for it against righties. Winquest's cutter is currently a work in progress, but it could be a key pitch for him to help bridge the gap between his fastball and slurve. The offering is 83-87 mph, with 3-5 inches of sweep, but the command on the pitch needs refinement.

Winquest sometimes struggles with his mechanics and that is something he is going to need to clean up in order to keep his starting pitcher hopes alive. Additionally, his velocity does tend to drop as his pitch count rises. Although it seems inevitable that he will shift to a bullpen role in the future, he's still one of the most underrated prospects in the system. With a fastball that continues to increase in velocity and secondary pitches that can flash, he will be a name to watch this year. I understand the concern about his fastball shape, but this is a guy who can run it up to 100 mph with 7 feet of extension (102 mph perceived velo) and has an outstanding feel for spinning the ball.

29. RHR Matt Svanson (2023 level: Double-A)

The Cardinals acquired Svanson from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Paul DeJong at the 2023 trade deadline. Svanson is a sinker/slider relief pitching prospect with an amalgamation of extreme run on his sinker and an unorthodox delivery, which makes him extremely difficult to square up.

Svanson pitched 53 1/3 innings between the Cardinals and Blue Jays farm systems; take a guess how many total home runs he gave up? ZERO. Among pitchers in the minors with 50 or more innings, Svanson was 1 of only 13 minor leaguers who did not give up a single home run in 2023. He also had the 2nd lowest ERA out of that group, only behind former 1st round pick Chase Petty.

Svanson combined for a 1.86 ERA between 3 levels in the Cardinals and Blue Jays organizations. He struck out 30.2% of hitters while walking only 7.5%. With that great strikeout and walk rates and knowing he didn't give up a single home run, his peripherals must be incredible, right? Svanson ranked 1st in the Cardinals minor league system in FIP (20 IP minimum) and was 2nd in xFIP, only to a pitcher I have higher on the list.

Svanson is an elite groundball-getter racking up a groundball rate north of 60%. In Statcast-tracked games last year, Svanson averaged 92.9 mph on his sinker (up to 98 mph in the past) with 7.9 inches of IVB and 16.4 inches of run. For reference, the average 92.9 mph sinker in MLB had 15.2 inches of run. Based on watching him at the end of last year, I would be willing to wager his velocity is closer to 95 mph in a larger sample. The pitch grades out above average but might face some trouble against lefties due to the run it gets.

Svanson also has a mid-80s slider with around 5 inches of IVB and 5 inches of sweep. It doesn't stand out stuff-wise but tunnels well off his sinker. Svanson also throws the pitch a ton and has solid command of it. I have some questions on how Svanson's arsenal will play at the higher levels against opposite-handed batters. Adding another pitch, whether it be a harder-breaking ball or a splitter/changeup, might be vital for him. Regardless, his production at every stop in his Minor League career speaks for itself and lands him in the top 30.

28. LHP Brycen Mautz (2023 level: Single-A)

The Cardinals selected Mautz in the 2nd round of the 2022 MLB Draft out of the University of San Diego. Mautz was originally a walk-on at the program and to ultimately be drafted in the 2nd round is truly an amazing story and can't be understated.

Mautz spent his first two collegiate seasons in the bullpen and broke out in a major fashion in 2022, cracking the starting rotation. He posted a 3.87 ERA in 90.2 innings, struck out an impressive 129 batters, and walked only 22. His ability to strike out hitters and generate groundballs while limiting walks enticed the Cardinals to take him with their 2nd pick in 2022.

Mautz's sinker comes in at around 92 mph with minimal sink (11 inches of IVB) and 15 inches of arm-side run. The offering performs best when locating it low in the zone, where he induces groundballs at a solid rate. Mautz generally lives low in the zone with the pitch, but he does incorporate it up in the zone.

I'd like to see him tinker with a four-seamer with higher induced vertical break rather than using his sinker up in the zone. Mautz has decent control with his sinker but needs to do a better job of keeping the pitch outside the heart of the zone. I'm curious to see how the offering performs against higher-level competition. It's slightly below average right now, but with an uptick in velocity (which he's showcased in the past), it could be average.

Mautz's best pitch is undeniably his slider. The pitch lives around 80 mph with 0.2 inches of IVB and 2 inches of sweep. While the pitch might not stand out from the movement profile alone, Mautz has great feel for the offering. He's comfortable using the pitch against both lefties and righties and is consistently able to locate it. Hitters struggled to make contact against it as he had a 41.4% whiff rate when using it.

Mautz's 3rd offering is his changeup, and he exclusively throws it to right-hand hitters to keep them off balance. In college, Mautz was primarily a 2 pitch pitcher, leading many evaluators to label him as a future reliever. However, last year, he started incorporating his changeup more. The pitch lives in the mid-80s with similar arm-side run to his sinker. I see it as a clear, below-average offering right now. Aside from the spotty command, I also don't love how the pitch profiles stuff-wise and I think Mautz should experiment with a different changeup, potentially even a splitter. Mautz also threw an occasional curveball, a pitch he's been working on in the offseason. It could be an effective pitch at the start of counts to steal strikes and ultimately lower his early-count sinker usage.

While Mautz might not have the best arsenal when it comes to overpowering stuff, he got plenty of results in his first professional season following a 2nd round selection in the Draft. Apart from his slider, I have questions about his secondary stuff. He must continue developing those pitches if he wants any chance to be a future starter in the big leagues.

27. OF Joshua Baez (2023 level: Single-A)

Joshua Baez is one of the most polarizing prospects in the Cardinals' farm system. He flashes 70-grade raw power (114.4 mph max EV) and 60-grade speed but needs to refine the rest of his game. The Cardinals selected him in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft for an over-slot $2.25 million signing bonus.

Since joining the Cardinals organization, we've seen flashes of why he was so highly touted coming out of high school, but the inconsistencies, particularly when evaluating his contact ability, are apparent. In 575 plate appearances in his pro career, Baez is hitting merely .219 while striking out a whopping 33.7% of the time. Plain and simple, he must improve his hit tool to be a big-league player.

Despite having 70-grade raw power, Baez finished with just 7 home runs in 358 plate appearances for Palm Beach in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. His ISO finished as the 12th-best out of 58 qualified (min. 300 PA) Florida State League hitters. In Statcast-tracked games, Baez recorded an outstanding 12.3% barrel rate. The lack of maximizing game power can be somewhat credited to playing in a pitcher-friendly environment.

Most of Baez's hardest-hit balls are aerial contact, and he also has a great feel for pulling his best-batted ball events (13 of Baez's 18 barrels were pulled flyballs). I'm optimistic that Baez's game power will manifest more outside Palm Beach, and I confidently give it a 60 grade. Baez's other calling card is his speed. In 2023, he recorded a top sprint speed of 30.4 ft/sec (30 is considered elite) and had 18 occurrences of 29 ft/sec or higher.

Even with his speed, Baez is best-suited long-term in a corner outfield spot, and he played most games at RF in 2023. While he has speed that works well on the basepaths he is a little wonky in the outfield and projects as a below-average defender currently. Baez has one of the strongest outfield arms in the system, as he recorded a top velocity of 95.1 mph in 2023 while recording several throws over 90 mph. Joshua Baez has some of the loudest tools in the Cardinals farm, and I'm eager to see the steps he takes in his development in 2024.

25. RHR Ryan Fernandez (2023 level: Triple-A)

The Cardinals picked Fernandez in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft. I had my eyes on him as a potential Rule 5 pick a year prior when the Cardinals took Wilking Rodriguez. Much like Rodriguez, Fernandez is a hard thrower, averaging over 96 mph on his fastball while topping out at 99.4 mph. He's already one of the hardest throwers in the system, but it's his breaking stuff that really stands out to me.

Ryan Fernandez's highest-used pitch last year was his cutter, and he produced a ridiculous 40.5% whiff rate and 34.5% CSW% on the pitch. The offering aided Fernandez to a nearly 30% strikeout rate across 3 levels in 2023. Not only does the pitch grade out as a plus stuff-wise, but Fernandez has no trouble landing it for a strike. The pitch is standard for a cutter, sitting in the high 80s to low 90s, averaging around 6" of IVB and 2" of horizontal break.

Fernandez's fastball took a step down in 2023 as he averaged around 15 inches of IVB, down about 2" from 2022. Fernandez threw his sinker more than his four-seamer in 2023. His sinker and four-seamer have similar profiles, the former with 1.5 fewer inches of IVB and 3 more inches of run. Both offerings produced very low swing and miss rates despite the velo. I'd like to see him lean into the four-seamer and at least get back to 2022 levels of vertical break.

Fernandez also throws a gyro-slider in the mid-80s, and although he threw it less than 10% of the time, I think it can be his 2nd above-average off-speed offering. The pitch produced an out-of-this-world 69.2% whiff rate (In Statcast-tracked games). Upon his Triple-A call-up, Fernandez had a 1.52 ERA on the season and struck out over 35% of hitters in 23 2/3 innings between Single-A and Double-A.

After allowing just 1 home run in Single-A and Double-A, Fernandez allowed 7 in 30 2/3 innings, which is over 2 per 9 innings. He was still posting great strikeout and walk rates, but the quality of contact took a big step down from what he did prior. Of the 7 home runs Fernandez gave up at Triple-A, 4 were cutters left over the heart of the plate (3 LHB, 1 RHB). While he has no problems controlling the pitch in the strike zone, he must command the pitch better if he wants to succeed in MLB. Fernandez is a solid, hard-throwing relief pitching prospect with quality breaking stuff and the ability to post high strikeout rates and low walk rates.

24. 1B William Sullivan (2023 level: Single-A)

Sullivan is a left-handed slugger the Cardinals drafted out of Troy in the 13th round last year. He showcased some of the best raw power in the entire 2023 class with a 119 mph max exit velocity and 112.3 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. So why did he slip all the way to the 13th round? I would suspect several reasons played a factor, such as playing at a weaker conference, being an older prospect, playing 1st base, and having some whiff concerns. Additionally, Sullivan struggled in a 40-game sample in the New England Collegiate Baseball League, a wood-bat summer ball league the summer prior to his final collegiate season.

2023 would be far and away Sullivan's strongest season in college, though, as he posted a .310/.416/.625 slash line while hitting 17 home runs. In college, Sullivan improved massively from year to year. In 2021, he had just a .681 OPS, but he brought it up to a respectable .832 in 2023, and in his breakout senior season, he got it up to a ridiculous 1.040. Not only did Sullivan reach incredible top-end exit velocities, but he also consistently made hard contact with a 91.3 mph average exit velocity and 44.7% hard-hit rate to show.

On top of hitting the ball hard, Sullivan made great swing decisions despite being aggressive at the dish. Sullivan had an elite 75.2% z-swing% while only chasing 24.5% of pitches. Sullivan could benefit from a more patient approach as he wasn't particularly stellar at optimizing his launch angle. Sullivan made 79.4% z-con and 52.2% o-con, which was his most glaring weakness in college ball. In his short time at Palm Beach, both values increased, giving me a sense of optimism. In Statcast-tracked games last season, Sullivan had an 87.4% zone contact rate while striking out around 20% of the time. I expect his zone contact rate to lower a bit in a larger sample, but I still find this to be an encouraging development.

Sullivan's exit velocities also remained elite in his first taste of pro ball. Sullivan had a 90.6 mph average exit velocity, 107.7 mph 90th exit velocity, and 112.7 mph max exit velocity, all grading out in the top 5% of hitters in Single-A. Sullivan is already one of the Cardinals' best prospects in terms of strictly raw power. The game power hasn't completely materialized yet, as his iso was only .125, and 5 of his 7 hardest-hit balls were hit on the ground. Sullivan had a groundball rate of 54.4% at Palm Beach, and his sprays were also not ideal for power production. I'm curious to see how his game power profiles in a larger sample this year.

Sullivan is a better athlete than you would think, considering his 6'4, 216-pound frame. He got up to 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed last year and generally lived in the 26-28 ft/sec range on competitive runs, which is below average but probably better than expected. Sullivan exclusively played 1B last year for the Cardinals, but if they wanted to experiment with throwing him in left field, he could potentially handle it. He did play some corner outfield in college. Sullivan made an exceptional impression in his first season in pro ball, and I'm eager to see how the data-darling first baseman performs in his first full season of pro ball.

23. RHR Edwin Nunez (2023 level: High-A)

After a couple of underwhelming seasons to begin his professional career, Nunez enjoyed a 2023 breakout season in his age 21 season. The Cardinals signed Nunez for $525k in 2020, and the Dominican fireballer had a lot of hype to his name due to a fastball that touched 100 mph as an 18-year-old. Nunez was initially being developed as a starting pitcher and would pitch multiple innings out of the bullpen, but his poor control forced the Cardinals to move him to a full-time one-inning reliever role. Although he's only 22 years old, I envision him as a relief pitcher in the long term.

Nunez took leaps and bounds with his control in 2023, improving his walk rate from 18.4% in his first two seasons to 10.8% last year. It changed his outlook from a non-prospect to one of the best relief pitching prospects in the system. Nunez is very athletic on the mound but struggles to repeat his delivery, which can hamper his ability to control his pitches. In 27.1 innings to begin his season at Palm Beach, Nunez struck out close to 30% of hitters while generating groundballs at a healthy clip.

He would pitch the rest of the season in Peoria, and while his ERA lowered from 3.62 to 3.22, his peripherals were much worse. His strikeout rate decreased more than 10% from 29.2% to 19.0%, and his homerun rate would follow suit. In each of the 4 home run occurrences for Peoria, sinkers were left over the heart of the plate. While Nunez throws extremely hard, the sinker isn't good enough to consistently make up for poor location, especially in hitter counts. Nunez continuing to improve his command and getting ahead of hitters will be paramount in his development as a prospect.

Speaking of his fastball, Nunez has two: a sinker and a four-seamer that he rarely uses. The sinker comes in with 13.3 inches of IVB and 14 inches of fade, which is a dead zone fastball (similar IVB and HB). I think he'd benefit from shelving his sinker and using his four-seamer as his primary fastball. Not only does his four-seamer profile as a better pitch in a vacuum, but it will also help to create a better tunnel for his changeup and slider, potentially making those pitches harder to pick up.

Nunez has always struggled to command his breaking stuff, and this could certainly help with that. In statcast-tracked games, Nunez threw 6 four-seamers (1 was a misread). 4 of the 5 pitches induced whiffs, and the other pitch resulted in a foul ball. Nunez averaged 17.4 inches of IVB and 9.4 inches of arm-side run on those pitches. Not only is that plus vertical break, but Nunez also throws from close to a 5' vertical release height, giving the pitch an extremely flat vertical approach angle.

Nunez has two interesting secondary offerings that can sometimes flash, but the command on them is very inconsistent. His changeup is his best secondary pitch at the moment. He has a feel for using the pitch against both lefties and righties and does an excellent job at inducing whiffs when he's able to locate it (45.8% whiff rate). He throws it in the high 80s, around 8 mph off his fastball, with a similar run and 7 fewer inches of IVB.

Nunez also throws a slurvy-breaking pitch with over 2800 rpm of spin. Much like the changeup, it induced whiffs at a high rate. The pitch sits in the high 70s to low 80s with 13.5 inches of sweep and -7 inches of IVB. I wish the pitch were a little harder, but I still think it can be a potential plus offering with better control. Nunez might have the highest ceiling out of any reliever on this list, but he must continue to refine his control. I would also like to see him throw his four-seamer more in 2024.

22. RHR Leonardo Taveras (2023 level: High-A)

Leonardo Taveras is a 25-year-old reliever-only prospect who last pitched in High-A and was suspended 80 games to end his 2023 season. How in the world is he the 22nd-best prospect in the Cardinals system? Those are all fair concerns, and I have no problem with anyone who excludes him from their top 30 or even top 50 for that matter, but I have a hard time doing that based on his performance last year.

Taveras has a deadly two-pitch mix, both of which grade out as plus, and surprisingly, he commanded the ball well in 2023. The performance-enhancing drugs certainly could have aided him in commanding the zone at the best rate of his career, but I think it would be unfair to speculate how much it helped him. The Cardinals signed Taveras all the way back in 2016 out of the Dominican Republic, and he has had many ups and downs throughout his professional career. However, a couple of things have been constant throughout that (until 2023).

Taveras has always struggled to control the strike zone. Taveras had a 19.2% BB% in his first 5 years in the Cardinals organization. The lowest BB% he posted at a level (8 or more IP) was 14.8%. He has also always had high-octane stuff, and his K% hovered around 30% in his first 5 seasons despite having virtually no control. The improvements in command and control took Taveras to a different level in 2023. Taveras had a 5.56 ERA in his first 5 years, bringing that down to 3.10 in his breakout season. His 19.2% career BB% would be down to under 10% in 2023 to a respectable 9.5%.

Among minor leaguers with 20+ innings pitched in 2023, Taveras ranked 4th best with a 35.7% K-BB% and 45.2% K% out of over 3000 qualifiers. As previously mentioned, he has a deadly two-pitch mix: a high-ride heater and a gyro slider. Firstly, he throws a 95-97 mph fastball (up to 100 mph) with over 18 inches of induced vertical break and less than 5 inches of run from an over-the-top 6.7-foot vertical release. He tends to throw the pitch up, where he induces whiffs at an exceptionally high rate.

His 2nd pitch is a devasting mid-to-high 80s gyro slider with sharp downward break. Hitters have a hard time distinguishing his fastball from his slider. They often flail trying to hit the pitch. Due to his high vertical release, Taveras creates a steep vertical approach angle on the pitch, making it devasting for hitters to go against. Taveras shows an advanced feel for the offering and uses it effectively against both righties and lefties. Despite being a two-pitch pitcher, I don't anticipate Taveras to face any platoon problems. If the command from 2023 sticks, I have no doubt in my mind we're looking at a future big-league reliever.

21. C Pedro Pages (2023 level: Double-A)

Pedro Pages is a stout defensive catcher who took significant strides on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball in 2023. But more importantly, he is a high-character individual and someone beloved by his teammates. He perfectly embodies what it means to be a catcher in the Cardinals organization. When the news came out that the Cardinals added Pages to the 40-man roster, many fans were left surprised. At the time, Andrew Knizner was still on the roster as the backup, and Ivan Herrera was the 3rd catcher.

The purchasing of Pages' contract would give the Cardinals 4 catchers on the 40-man roster, and that wouldn't last long with the news of Knizner's non-tender a few days later. Amidst the obvious questions of Contreras behind the plate and 23-year-old Ivan Herrera being the only other catcher on the roster, it speaks volumes to how the organization feels about Pages and his readiness to be a big league catcher.

Pages was a significantly better hitter in 2023 than he was in 2022. Between Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis, Pages struck out over 30% and had an 80 wRC+ in 337 plate appearances. In 2023, he would improve those marks to 19.3% and 113, respectively, in 497 plate appearances. Pages ended the season strong in his final 19 games with a .348/.444/.507 slash line and a 156 wRC+. When assessing his offense, there's a night and day difference between his contact rates in 2022 and 2023, which played a huge factor in his offensive surge.

As mentioned earlier, Pages is a superb defender behind the plate. Baseball Prospectus grades him out as one of the best defensive catchers in Minor League Baseball with their Deserved Runs Prevented and Catching Defense Added metrics. I have been told to take these stats with a grain of salt; still, it's encouraging to see Prospectus' data back up my preconceived notion of Pages' defensive aptitude. Albeit catcher defense is one of the hardest things to evaluate, I'm fairly confident Pages is going to be a great defender at the next level.

As Pages got more comfortable with his new one-knee-down catching approach, his mobility behind the plate to block pitches and steal strikes developed rapidly. Pages pairs his blocking and framing skills with an above-average throwing arm, giving him a well-rounded defensive profile. Pages gunned down 47 baserunners on 123 attempts last year, which is good enough for a 38.2% rate. Leonardo Bernal and Jimmy Crooks get all the spotlight regarding Cardinals catching prospects but don't sleep on Pedro Pages following his tremendous 2023 campaign.