Should we be concerned about a drop-off for the Cardinals?

It's been a tale of two seasons for the Cardinals. 2024 got off to a very poor start as the Cardinals compiled a 15-24 record up to May 11. But the next day, things snapped into place, and they started winning games again. In fact, their 35-22 record since then is the best in the National League. They've completely changed the narrative on the season, and after looking like obvious deadline sellers early on, they're now in a position where they must add to the club.

But this past week, the Cardinals hit a bump in the road. They returned home for six games against the Royals and Cubs and had a chance to go into the break with some momentum. But they were swept in a day-night doubleheader by Kansas City and they split with the Cubs, which adds up to a 2-4 homestand.

It's a minor setback, especially considering how well the Cardinals had played, and to be fair, the Royals are a good team and the Cubs were red-hot after sweeping the Orioles. Still, there were a few games in that stretch that the Cardinals really should have won, and they should have been able to win the series against the North Siders.

For the rest of July, the schedule is mostly manageable. They kick off the second half with a three-game series against the Braves in Atlanta, then play the Pirates, Nationals, and Rangers to cap off the month. Atlanta will be tough for sure, but it should be manageable for this team. It's in the month of August where things will get tough, and when you look at the schedule, it's fair to wonder if there might be a little regression from this team.

Should we be concerned about a drop-off for the Cardinals?

Like many fans, I'm encouraged by the way the Cardinals have played since Mother's Day, but I'm also hesitant to hop on the hype train because they're not out of the woods. Atlanta will be a tough test, even after the Cardinals beat them two out of three games the first time, and Pittsburgh has started to play better, though the Cardinals have beaten them twice.

But things change in August. They have a few breaks in the schedule when they face the Cubs, Rays, and Reds. But starting on August 5, they'll have a makeup game with the Mets, who are red-hot. After the Rays series, they'll deal with the Royals again.

Then, following the series in Cincinnati, they'll matchup with the Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Padres, and Yankees to close out the month and they'll face the Brewers and Mariners to start September. This is where I start to worry a little bit. While the Cardinals have played well and beat a few good teams, they still have played mostly sub-par teams like the Cubs, Reds, Rockies, Pirates, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals. Also worth noting is that the Cardinals only managed to split with the Rockies and Reds in June and lost the series in Miami.

Obviously by now, the Cardinals have played their way out of seller's territory, and it would take a massive losing skid for that to even be considered again. They would have to lose a lot of ground in a short amount of time, and fortunately, I don't see that happening.

But that doesn't mean the path is clear. Even after the hot stretch, they were due for a bit of a regression, naturally, but I do worry about the month of August. Yes, we know the Cardinals will be buyers, but will they make the big moves that put them in the conversation with teams like the Dodgers and Phillies? Based on what we've been hearing, it doesn't look that way.

Only if the Cardinals go big at the deadline will they be able to stand up to the Dodgers, Yankees, Mariners, and other contending clubs. And if they don't do that, then they won't stand much of a chance.

I'm not trying to be negative, but I am trying to be realistic. We don't know what will happen yet, but the month of August will determine if this team is a true contender. If they can beat these teams, then I'll be sold on them as a contender. But this is why they have to get it right at the deadline so that they can be prepared for the stretch that will define their season.

If they can't beat these teams, then they aren't a true contender, but if they get the deadline right, they can ensure that a major drop-off won't occur down the stretch. There will be moments when they don't play their best baseball, but they have to make sure to avoid a prolonged stretch of such struggles.