Predicting what the Cardinals would offer for the remaining free-agent relievers

2023 is coming to an end and there are still some big names that are unsigned for the 2024 season. Some thought that with big names like Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto coming off the board would jumpstart the market, but it hasn't really done so just yet.

When it comes to spending money in free agency, the Cardinals have certainly done so. With their free-agent signings Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Sonny Gray, they currently stand in 5th place in most money spent this offseason. They have addressed their need for some starting pitching through free agency, but now it is time to focus on the bullpen, there is some improvements that need to be made on that end too.

We saw last season that the Cardinal bullpen was overworked and worn down. Adding starters who are likely going to go deeper into games should help the bullpen, but there are some available free agents that could make the Cardinals bullpen even more effective.

Looking at who the Cardinals currently have, Ryan Helsley and JoJo Romero can be reliable arms late in games if they can stay healthy, Giovanny Gallegos has been durable for the past few seasons but he'll need to be more consistent in 2024, and the same goes for Andre Pallante. There is some guys that could be contributors, John King comes to mind, but there's no guarantee they'll produce, adding another proven arm could be the route the Cardinals would want to take.

Out of the top remaining free agent relievers, there are some that could get a big payday, and the Cardinals have the money to offer these guys that payday. I will be trying to predict what the Cardinals could/should offer to the top remaining free agents, predicting what it will take to sign them, and what a realistic contract could look like.

David Robertson-1 year deal for $8 million dollars

Robertson will turn 39 right after the 2024 season begins but he has proven himself to be one of the more reliable late-inning relievers throughout his career. He has a career 2.90 ERA in 15 seasons in two separate stints with the Yankees and Phillies, and also with the White Sox, Rays, Cubs, Mets, and most recently the Marlins.

In 2011 he was an All-Star and in 2009 he won a World Series with the Yankees. Despite not winning a World Series in 15 seasons he has plenty of postseason experience, as he has pitched in 42 playoff games in his career, and in those games, he's 6-0 with a 3.04 ERA. Robertson has also been a reliable strike-out pitcher and a durable arm, he has had a K/9 rating of over 10 in 14 of his 15 seasons and has pitched over 60 innings in a season 11 times.

Despite his age, I could see him getting a multi-year deal, but with it being January, I think a shorter deal makes more sense at this stage of free agency. Plus Robertson signed with the Mets last off-season on a one-year deal so I see it being very likely that he would do that again. But Robertson is still a respectable high-leverage pitcher who can strike people out and throw a lot of innings, he would be a nice addition.

Phil Maton- 2 year deal for $28 million dollars

Maton is very underrated and an intriguing free agent. He has a career 4.25 ERA in 7 seasons with the Padres, Guardians, and Astros but is coming off his best season in the big leagues.

In 2023, Maton had career-bests in ERA ( 3.00), appearances (68), hits per 9 (6.7), ERA+ (141), and WHIP (1.12). Maton did not pitch in the playoffs for the Astros in the year they won the World Series in 2022 after he injured himself punching a locker in the final week of the regular season, but when he has pitched in the postseason he has simply been outstanding.

From 2020-2023 Maton has pitched in 20 playoff games and he has a superb 0.83 ERA, including in the 2023 playoff where he only allowed 1 hit and 2 base runners in 6 playoff appearances. Dating back to the 2021 World Series Maton has not allowed a run in his last 11.2 innings in the playoffs.

Like Robertson, Maton is a strikeout reliever, as he has a career 10.3 K/9 and has gotten over a strikeout an inning in 6 of his 7 MLB seasons. And he is much younger, he will turn 31 in March so you'd surely be more comfortable in giving him a multi-year contract, and he'll likely be looking for one. There have been multiple reports in the past month that the Cardinals are linked to Maton, seeing him as a good fit in a middle relief role, also one thing to note, Maton went to high school in Chatham, Illinois which is approximately 95 miles away from Busch Stadium.

Hector Neris- 3 year deal for $45 million dollars

Neris is another former Astros reliever that the Cardinals have reportedly been linked to, and he as well would be a welcomed addition to the Cardinal bullpen. After the World Series, Neris declined his $8.5 million dollar player option and opted for free agency, and he is one of the more attractive names remaining.

2023 was year 10 in the big leagues for Neris and he had a career-low 1.71 ERA and a 10.1 K/9 in just over 68 innings, his 8th straight season with a double-digit K/9. After failing to make the postseason in his 8 seasons in Philadelphia, he has been a part of two deep playoff runs with the Astros, including a run to the World Series title in 2022 when Neris only allowed one run in those playoffs.

In June Neris will turn 35 years old, but coming off a career year in some ways I could easily see him get up to 3 years and a decent annual salary. It's surprising to me that he is not signed yet but the Cardinals should continue to express interest in him because he is a durable arm ( has thrown at least 65 innings in a season 6 times), and provides swing-and-miss stuff that the Cardinals need more of in their bullpen in 2024. Investing in somebody like Neris who is reliable to pitch in high-leverage situations is something the Cardinals need to do if they're serious about going deep in the playoffs next year.

Robert Stephenson - 4-year deal for $40 million dollars

Robert Stephenson is very familiar with the NL Central, as he pitched in parts of seven seasons with the Reds and Pirates, but he saw a breakout campaign in 2023 with the Rays that has made him one of the better free-agent relievers available.

He began his major league career with the Reds back in 2016 as a starter and he did not find a whole lot of success. From 2016-2018 he made 22 starts and had a 5.47 ERA, a 5.7 BB/9 (walks per 9 innings), and a 9.4 H/9 (hits per 9 innings). Stephenson became a full-time reliever in 2019 and was solid in spurts but not for any extended period of time.

In 2023 with the Pirates, Stephenson had a 5.14 ERA in 18 appearances before he was traded to the Rays for minor league infielder Alika Williams and he had a resurgence. He had 42 relief outings with Tampa Bay and he hit career-bests in several statistical fields including win-loss percentage, ERA, ERA+, FIP, WHIP, H/9, BB/9, and K/9,

The risk you run in giving Stephenson a long-term deal like four years is if last season with Tampa was just a fluke, but with the way he ended last season could lead a team to overpay for him. Before he got to the Rays he had a career ERA of just under 5.00 across 7 seasons with the Reds, Rockies, and Pirates, which is obviously a larger sample size than just 42 games. But at the same time, you'd hate to miss out on a pitcher who will turn 31 next month, who may have discovered something that could make him a weapon for years to come.

Josh Hader - 6-year deal for $150 million dollars

There is no question that Hader is the best relief pitcher on the free-agent market right now. For most of his career, Hader has been automatic and lockdown in the 9th inning of games. He is a three-time winner of the Trevor Hoffman National League Reliever of the Year and a 5-time All-Star, every team would love to have him.

After an outstanding run with the Brewers, the baseball world was stunned to see Hader get traded from a first-place team to the Padres. He did not pitch well when he came to San Diego, as he had an ERA over 7 in the regular season, but in the postseason he made up for that where he was basically unhittable. In 5.1 innings he only allowed one hit, one walk, and he struck out 10, just showing how dominant he can really be.

That great postseason carried over into 2023 where he put up another stellar season. Across 61 games he had a 1.28 ERA (and a 321 ERA+), 33 saves, and 85 K's in 56.1 innings pitched. The Cardinals are in need of some more swing-and-miss arms, and there is nobody better than Hader, in his career he has a 15.0 K/9 rate, which is the best in MLB history for an individual career.

So what kind of money is Hader going to get? According to Jim Bowden with CBS Sports, Hader is looking for a contract " north of Edwin Diaz ". Last off-season Diaz re-signed with the Mets for 5 years and 102 million dollars, which is an average salary of $20.4 million a year. So I went ahead and put down a flat number of $25 million average salary for 6 years. It was also reported by Bowden that no team has hit the amount that Hader is looking for just yet.

I wouldn't expect the Cardinals to go all in for Hader right now, but we do know that they can offer what Hader wants, the only question is, will they? But at the end of the day, if the Cardinals want to show that they are serious about competing for a World Series in 2024, signing Hader would convince the fan base that they're all in.