Has Nolan Arenado been worth the Cardinals' investment halfway into his contract?

On February 1, 2021, the St. Louis Cardinals made a franchise-altering decision that was aimed to return the Cardinals back to their winning ways. In a blockbuster move, the Cardinals acquired future Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado in a five-for-one trade. Not only known by Cardinals and Rockies fans, but every fan in Major League Baseball knows that this is one of the all-time great heists in the game. The Cardinals acquire the best third baseman in baseball and arguably all-time...AND $50 million dollars!? This was an automatic win.

Much time has passed since then. 2021 ended in absolute heartbreak in the 2021 NL Wild Card Game versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. Arenado did not contribute at the plate in this game and it's safe to say no player did on the Cardinals. Arenado was not his true self in his first season in St. Louis. He ended the year with a slash line of .255/.312/.494 (.807 OPS, 119 OPS+) with 34 2B, 34 HR and 104 RBIs (4.0 WAR). Normally that is a good season and any team would want this from their players. But this was a negative sign to see from Arenado who was in his first season in St. Louis with six more to follow.

2022 has been the highlight of Nolan Arenado's Cardinals career and possibly his entire career. He finished 3rd in MVP voting only behind Manny Machado and his own teammate Paul Goldschmidt who ended up winning the award. The Cardinals had the best 1-2 punch in baseball, the team was balanced with youth and veterans which took them to the postseason as a serious underdog, and Albert Pujols rejuvenated his career as a serious threat in the lineup.

This was the season that the Cardinals FO envisioned when they traded for Goldy and Arenado and developed their young talent. Arenado slashed a .293/.358/.533 (.891 OPS, 151 OPS+) with a 7.7 WAR which is his career high. With the most hype in a long time riding behind this team going into October, it ended in disappointment again. Arenado did nothing at the plate yet again in the postseason and he even made a crucial error in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Round. The Phillies bounced the Cardinals in two games and fans to this day are left in shock. This was not a storybook ending.

Coming off of 2022, Nolan Arenado had expectations to be a top player in MLB and lead the Cardinals back to the postseason to redeem what had taken place the prior season. Instead, Cardinals fans got the worst Cardinals season in over 20 years in 2023. The Cardinals lost 91 games and were an absolute embarrassment to the city of St. Louis and its fans. What about their star player in Arenado? He had one of the worst seasons in his professional career. He slashed .269/.323/.392 (.715 OPS, 108 OPS+) with 26 2B, 26 HR, and 93 RBIs for a total WAR of 2.4. He has been an All-Star every season with the Cardinals at this point so he is not being unproductive. But for a player with 163 million dollars guaranteed to him, his production has been very sporadic up to this point.

With 2024 winding down, Nolan Arenado is continuing to trend in a negative direction. His production level is very on par with the 2023 season and is actually slightly worse. Many fans were hoping he was simply struggling and would figure it out. But now fans are wondering if the Cardinals have invested in the drop-off years of Nolan Arenado. Father time will always catch up to any athlete and you hope to catch the prime years in a bottle. But now the Cardinals FO is stuck with yet again another lengthy contract that is becoming dead weight on the books. Instead of opening up opportunities to younger players to prove themselves on the roster, Arenado will be penciled in the lineup every night declining ever so slowly until he is no longer financially obligated to do so.

It has been quite the roller-coaster for Cardinals fans during the Goldy and Nado years in St. Louis. Goldy will be a Free Agent once the season wraps up and it is unclear if he will be returning. Even though his production has fallen off since his 2022 MVP, Paul Goldschmidt has been worth every penny invested in him. He is a true Cardinal and will most likely don the red Jacket and be enshrined forever in St. Louis. We are only halfway through his contract, but will the same be said of Nolan Arenado? Or are we witnessing one of the worst contracts in the John Mozeliak era?