Cardinals Opening Day Roster Prediction 2.0: How Brandon Crawford shakes things up

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The St. Louis Cardinals have been in camp for a few weeks now and are in the swing of their game schedule, which has given us a greater glimpse into what their Opening Day roster may look like when they open up the season against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

On Valentine's Day and the first official day of team workouts, our own Thomas Gauvain predicted who would be on the club's Opening Day roster, but a lot has happened in a few short weeks that has shaken up that mix.

Since camp began, a few different arms have caught the attention of fans and media alike, perhaps moving their names to the front of the line when it comes to the Cardinals' bullpen mix early on in the season. Even so, talk of a six-man rotation to begin the year may complicate what the mix could look like, or at least change what the Cardinals are looking for from one of those spots.

On the position player side of things, the recent signing of shortstop Brandon Crawford has caused some changes to how we view the Cardinals' bench mix at this moment, and so has the health of center fielder Tommy Edman. Edman's status on Opening Day will shake up who gets the final position player spot on this roster.

And of course, there have been some prospects who have brought excitement to camp early on who many are wondering if they can break into that Opening Day mix as well. Based on all of the recent news and what we have seen so far in camp, this is how I think the Cardinals' Opening Day roster will stack up as things currently stand.

Catcher (2) - Willson Contreras and Ivan Herrera

No changes here, and barring an injury, Willson Contreras and Ivan Herrera will be the Cardinals catching tandem for the entirety of the 2024 season and for years to come. Herrera is coming off an exciting 2023 campaign and a strong winter, while Contreras was a top-5 hitter in the second half last year and has made major adjustments to his framing over the offseason.

Just missed: Pedro Pages

Infield (6) - Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Masyn Winn, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Brandon Crawford, and Matt Carpenter

While it's been a topic all offseason what the Cardinals would do for depth behind Masyn Winn and Tommy Edman at the shortstop position, I think it came as a surprise to most people when rumors began to circulate that the Cardinals would be looking to sign a veteran shortstop, which those rumors quickly turned into an official Crawford signing.

The reason all of that came together so suddenly is three-fold.

First, the Cardinals wanted to see what the health of Edman was like as camp began. Edman is still working through his recovery and is not fully cleared for baseball activities, and there is a chance he will be unable to go on Opening Day.

Second, the shortstop market finally heated up over the last week or so, as we saw Nick Ahmed, Tim Anderson, and Ahmed Rosario all signed deals with clubs after sitting on the free agent market all offseason. If the Cardinals were going to secure depth at that position, they had to act now, and my guess is almost none of these names, Crawford included, were open to becoming Winn's backup until recently as their options thinned.

Third, and a bit of a deviation from the offseason rhetoric, was that when Edman is healthy, the Cardinals are now saying they'd rather have him just focus on playing center field, rather than having to worry about being the backup shortstop as well.

How does this impact the Cardinals' infield group? Again, barring injuries, I think it all but guarantees that the names I listed above will make up the Cardinals' infield options to begin the year, no matter how well someone like Thomas Saggese plays. The Cardinals will be relying on the core of Goldschmidt, Arenado, Winn, Donovan, and Gorman to play almost every day, with one of those guys sneaking into the DH spot most days. I really don't imagine Carpenter playing very often.

While Winn should play most days, Crawford should see a bit more playing time than Carpenter as the backup to Winn, and the only player on the roster who can fill in at shortstop when needed, unless Edman is healthy. Something to watch for is that both Crawford and Carpenter are on Major League deals, so unless they get injured, there's a good chance they block other infielders from coming up to St. Louis unless they force the Cardinals' hand.

Just missed: Thomas Saggese, Jose Fermin, Jared Young, Luken Baker

Outfield (4) - Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, and Alec Burleson

Based on recent events, I'm going to use this 2.0 version of our Opening Day roster prediction to look at a world where Tommy Edman begins the season on the injured list.

The Cardinals are still unsure when Edman will be fully cleared to play baseball as he recovers from offseason wrist surgery. The expectation since the surgery was revealed was that Edman would be ready to go by Opening Day, but it's become more and more unclear if that will happen.

I'm not sure what I'd put the actual odds of that right now, but considering the current state of things, let's assume Edman begins the year on the injured list for even just a few weeks.

While many would love to see Victor Scott II get the opportunity to run with the job in his absence (see what I did there?), it feels unlikely barring another injury and/or Scott having an incredible camp.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see him too, and even if he's not up on Opening Day, his talent will force a conversation all season long. I do think the Crawford signing complicates the situation a bit though.

With Crawford and Carpenter taking up two roster spots, and Herrera taking up the third, Scott would have to force the Cardinals to remove one of Alec Burleson or Dylan Carlson from the roster, something I don't see them doing soon.

Speaking of Burleson, Edman's injury may help him regain a roster spot on this team for the time being, but likely not for long. He brings a bit of redundancy off the bench being a left-handed bat with limited defensive versatility, so whenever Edman is healthy, I imagine Burleson will be down in Memphis.

Probably the biggest winner in this scenario is Carlson, who, due to Edman missing the beginning of the season, will get an opportunity to start in center field. Carlson is at a bit of a crossroads career wise right now, and needs a strong 2024 campaign to change the narrative around him.

If Carlson struggles, I do think it's possible we see Nootbaar slide over to center field in the interim while one of Donovan or Burleson slot into left field.

Just missed: Tommy Edman (assuming he begins season on IL) and Victor Scott II

Rotation (5) - Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson

Just missed: Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson

No changes in the starting rotation compared to previous predictions, but the six-man rotation idea is new since we last discussed this.

As a quick reminder, the idea of a six-man rotation is not something the Cardinals have come close to landing the plan on and they want to see what the health and production from their rotation looks like throughout camp before they lean one way or the other.

The reason they would do this is because they have fewer off days than normal to begin the season, and with arms still being stretched out a bit in early April, having a six-man rotation for one or two weeks could help ease the transition. This is not something the club would want to do for very long.

Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore are the top two candidates to jump into that mix if the club went that direction. Both guys are also candidates to be a part of the bullpen mix, so we'll have to see what the club ends up doing there.

For a long time, I've felt very confident that one or both of those young starters would make the roster, but I actually have them both starting the year in Memphis in this scenario. That would mean the Cardinals did not utilize a six-man rotation, but I also think it would say a lot about how they feel about their bullpen mix.

You'll see in a moment, but it's really hard to narrow down the bullpen arms right now, especially when you add Thompson and Liberatore to that mix as well. While it's still very possible and probably more likely than not that one of them is in St. Louis, I do think there is incentive to hold off on that for both of them.

If the pair of lefties are truly the Cardinals' next best options for their rotation, they'll want them stretched out and ready to go whenever an injury happens. Having both of them stretched out in Memphis means the Cardinals are not putting all of their eggs in one of their baskets as the next guy up, even though they do have other options like Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy, Adam Kloffenstein, and Sem Robberse.

Something to watch is that both Liberatore and Thompson just have one option remaining this year, so if either is sent down to Memphis in 2024, the Cardinals cannot do that again in 2025 without passing them through waivers. I'm very interested to see how the Cardinals handle both of them.

Bullpen (8) - Ryan Helsley, Keynan Middleton, Andrew Kittredge, Giovanny Gallegos, JoJo Romero, Andre Pallante, Riley O'Brien, and Ryan Fernandez

The Cardinals' bullpen is the biggest wild card with this team and is probably the unit that has the ability to make or break them as a contender in 2024.

Yes, the lineup has to be really good for the team to win, and of course, the rotation needs to be better for them to not fall behind in games over and over again like last year, but the bullpen is the unit that has the most variance in my opinion.

On paper, this is a really strong group. Is Andre Pallante the worst option? At many points in 2023, he was the Cardinals' second or third-best option. Ryan Fernandez? His stuff has looked good so far. Riley O'Brien? His stuff has looked even better!

The bullpen last year had one or two high-leverage guys they could rely on at any given time. Now, when healthy, Helsley, Middleton, Kittredge, Romero, and Gallegos can all profile as that, with O'Brien, Fernandez, and Pallante all mixed in. It can't be understated that the depth they've accrued can make a massive difference in 2024.

On top of those eight names, they can also lead on Thompson, Liberatore, Nick Robertson, John King, Wilking Rodriguez, Adam Kloffenstein, Gordon Graceffo, and a variety of other arms, They just did not have that kind of depth last year.

Just missed: Nick Robertson, John King, Adam Kloffenstein, Wilking Rodriguez

Opening Day Lineups

Versus right-handed pitching

2B Brendan Donovan
1B Paul Goldschmidt
LF Lars Nootbaar
3B Nolan Arenado
C Willson Contreras
DH Nolan Gorman
RF Jordan Walker
CF Dylan Carlson
SS Masyn Winn

Versus left-handed pitching

CF Dylan Carlson
1B Paul Goldschmidt
RF Jordan Walker
3B Nolan Arenado
DH Willson Contreras
2B Nolan Gorman
C Ivan Herrera
LF Lars Nootbaar
SS Masyn Winn

The lineup against right-handed pitching is pretty straightforward, with maybe some movement between the left-handed bats in the lineup. If Jordan Walker ascends like many think he will, he's going to force his way higher in the lineup sooner rather than later.

The Edman injury really impacts the lineup against left-handed pitching. When Edman is healthy, I think this lineup can be shaken up depending on if Herrera is playing or not, but when Edman is on the injured list, I think it makes a lot of sense for Herrera to get the start here.

Brendan Donovan has struggled in his career against left-handed pitching, so it may be wise to use him as a weapon off the bench for later in games and prioritize other bats like Herrera, Carlson, and Edman when he's healthy.

I decided to be aggressive if Walker's placement in the order against lefties, partially as a test of his ability to handle being in the middle of the order. Contreras would be a good fit there too, but I also like allowing Goldschmidt, Arenado, and Contreras to consisently hit in the same spots in the lineup with all of the other movement happening. It would actually help Walker out a ton to be sandwiched between two lefty mashers and have Contreras following them up.

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